With the preliminary round complete, the men’s Olympic hockey tournament has entered the single-elimination stage, where one loss ends your run. Canada is feeling very good about its chances to win gold, while the United States will have to take a more difficult path.
The Americans did their job in group play, winning all three games. But chaos in Group B likely sets up a quarterfinal against Sweden. Sweden has finished outside the top four just once on European soil in the past 90 years, which makes that matchup far from ideal.
In contrast, the path has opened up for Finland and Slovakia. Both could reach the podium without having to beat either North American giant. They would still face a difficult semifinal, but a medal of any color is very much on the table, especially with either Sweden or the United States potentially eliminated early.
Here is a look at the field.
Gold Medal Favorite: Canada (-155, BetMGM)
There is little value left on Canada, especially now that it will not have to beat both the United States and Sweden to win gold. Canada would have been favored in either matchup, but it is always easier when one eliminates the other.
Canada has not faced much resistance. The goaltending against France was a bit loose, but that is expected when the focus is on maximizing goal differential. Canada ran up the margin to make it unreachable, and it succeeded.
The path to the gold medal game looks straightforward. Czechia and Switzerland offered little resistance in earlier meetings, and Denmark or Finland likely would not pose a greater challenge. Canada should reach the final without too much trouble. There is no value on Canada to win gold at this price, and that is unlikely to change. The better angle is backing Canada to finish with silver at +275 if you believe they fall in the final.
Best Value: Slovakia (+4000, BetMGM)
Slovakia is unlikely to win gold, but it is worth a small dart at this price. The Slovaks draw a manageable quarterfinal with Germany or Latvia, which puts them in a strong position.
A more realistic play is Slovakia to win a medal of any color. That number sits at +375, better odds than either Sweden or Finland. Slovakia already beat Finland once and won bronze four years ago. It is in a favorable spot to do it again without having to beat both North American powers.
Best U.S. Angle: Silver (+185, BetMGM)
The Americans look like the second-best team in the tournament, but they have a serious issue: slow starts. That could be costly against an aggressive opponent that jumps out early.
The United States scored just one first-period goal across its three pool games and even trailed Denmark after 20 minutes. Canada scored six first-period goals. If the Canadians get out in front early, the United States likely will not have enough to chase them down.
The biggest hurdle to even reaching the final is Sweden. The Swedes have also been inconsistent early, jumping on Italy but struggling to generate much in the first period against Finland. Assuming Sweden advances, the quarterfinal matchup is about as even as it gets. The United States will need to be sharper than it was in group play or it could find itself leaving without a medal.
Remember, the United States has not won a men’s Olympic hockey medal on European soil since 1956. That is why any bet on the Americans needs plus money. The downside is simply too high otherwise.
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