Whether you’re new to filling out an NCAA men’s basketball tournament bracket or you’ve been doing this for years, there’s always more to learn when it comes to giving yourself the best chance to win.
Picking a bracket is obviously an inexact science, and winning your pool is never easy. But these tips can help maximize your chances if a little luck happens to fall your way.
Know Your Scoring System and Competition
This rule is more important than almost every other strategy combined. Knowing how your pool is scored and who you’re competing against gives you a major edge when filling out your bracket. If your pool rewards upsets, you may want to pick a few more against shaky top seeds. If the scoring heavily rewards teams that make deep runs, it often pays to be more cautious with early-round upset picks.
Knowing your competition also matters. If you’re in a pool filled with Arizona fans, for example, you may want to pick someone other than the Wildcats. Why? In that scenario, everyone else is earning the same points you would get for Arizona, which means the rest of your bracket becomes the deciding factor.
If everyone in your pool picks Arizona, Duke, or Michigan and you’re the only one to take Florida, you immediately create separation. If the Gators win the title, you likely win the pool. And even if they fall short, you still have a chance to gain ground through the rest of your bracket. When your champion is a less common pick, it becomes much easier to separate from the field.
Pick Mostly Chalk
The high seeds are high for a reason: they’ve proven themselves over the course of four and a half months. Upsets certainly happen, but they’re relatively uncommon because pulling one off requires beating a very good opponent.
And in recent years, the selection committee has gotten better at seeding the field. Last year, all four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four, just the second time that’s happened in NCAA men’s tournament history. As the committee has embraced advanced metrics such as Ken Pomeroy and Bart Torvik, its seeding decisions have generally become more accurate.
So when looking at your Final Four, you typically want the combined seed total of those four teams to stay relatively low. If that number is higher than 15, you may want to give your bracket a second look.
Pick One or Two High Seeds to Fall Early
The committee has improved, but it is far from perfect. In the past 15 tournaments, only three saw all of the top 16 teams win their first-round games. That means at least one team seeded 13 or lower is a good bet to advance.
In practice, your one or two low seeds advancing should usually be a No. 13 or No. 14 seed. These are by far the most common upsets among the lowest four seed lines. Out of 160 games, No. 13 seeds have advanced 33 times and No. 14 seeds have done it 23 times. By comparison, only 11 No. 15 seeds and two No. 16 seeds have managed to pull it off.
But do not get carried away. Only a few rare situations, which we will discuss shortly, have ever seen three of these lower seeds advance in the same year, and four has never happened. Two should generally be your limit, unless one specific exception applies.
15s and 16s Don’t Fly Solo
Now that the greatest upset in NCAA tournament history has happened twice, a No. 16 seed winning a game can no longer be automatically dismissed. But there is an important rule here: never pick a No. 15 or No. 16 seed unless you also have at least two other teams seeded 13 or lower advancing.
Only twice has a No. 15 seed won without at least two other teams seeded 13 through 16 advancing as well. Those teams were Santa Clara in 1993 and Saint Peter’s in 2022, likely the two most criminally underseeded No. 15 seeds in tournament history.
A No. 16 seed has never advanced without company. UMBC’s historic win came alongside two No. 13 seed upsets, while Fairleigh Dickinson’s breakthrough arrived in a year that also saw a No. 13 and a No. 15 move on.
If you cannot realistically see at least two other lower seeds winning, do not bother picking a No. 15 or No. 16.
The Tournament Starts on Wednesday
Since the First Four was introduced in 2011, the winner of the Wednesday night play-in games has been a strong pick in the first round. In 11 of the past 13 tournaments, at least one First Four winner has advanced, and 10 of those involved a team that played on Wednesday.
Usually that team comes from the second game of Wednesday’s slate. Teams in that spot are 9-4 in the first round, even with the quick turnaround and travel. The 10th instance came from Fairleigh Dickinson, which became the only No. 16 seed to win two games in the same tournament.
Unless you have a strong reason not to, it is wise to pick the Wednesday First Four winner to win at least one game in the main draw.
Don’t Forget About 11 Seeds
The 12/5 upset gets a lot of attention, and rightfully so because of how often it happens. But the 11/6 upset is even more common, occurring in nearly 38% of matchups. It tends to fly under the radar because most people barely consider it an upset. But No. 11 seeds are often excellent choices to win a game or even two, and a couple, VCU in 2011 and NC State in 2024, even reached the Final Four.
Most First Four teams that go on to win again in the first round have been No. 11 seeds. Taken as a whole, No. 11 seeds are 10-10 against No. 6 seeds over the past five tournaments. If you feel confident about an 11 seed, or think a No. 6 looks shaky, do not hesitate to advance the lower seed.
Momentum Matters
That North Carolina State team that made the Final Four as a No. 11 seed had major momentum on its side. The Wolfpack won five games in five days just to reach the tournament, then carried that momentum all the way to the Final Four. In 2021, Oregon State did something similar, winning the Pac-12 tournament to steal a bid before reaching the Elite Eight as a No. 12 seed.
If a team finishes the season playing its best basketball, it is worth taking a close look at that group as a potential bracket disruptor. Momentum matters, especially in March.
Dismiss Early Exiters
Conference tournaments usually do not mean much when it comes to the NCAA tournament, with one important exception. Since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, no team has won the national championship after losing its first game in the conference tournament.
Among this year’s top 16 seeds, that should make you think twice about picking Michigan State, Illinois, Nebraska, or Alabama to win the title.
Pick Three Favorites and One Outlier
Last year was a notable exception, but historically three of the top 16 teams make the Final Four, with the fourth region producing a surprise. In nine of the past 10 tournaments, at least one team seeded No. 5 or lower has reached the Final Four. Usually they are joined by a No. 2 or No. 3 seed and a pair of No. 1s.
If you identify the right region for the dark horse, you will be in great shape to win your pool. That is because once things get chaotic in that region, very few people will still be scoring points there. If you are the one who correctly picks the surprise team, you gain a massive advantage.
Have Fun With It
At the end of the day, no bracket strategy guarantees success. March Madness is unpredictable by nature, and even the most carefully researched bracket can fall apart in the first weekend.
Use the data and trends above to guide your decisions, but do not be afraid to trust your instincts. Most importantly, enjoy the process. Filling out a bracket is one of the best ways to make every game in the tournament matter.
If this was your kind of read, you’ll like what’s next. Get The Sandman Ticket, our free, weekly newsletter with picks, insights, and a little bit of everything we love about sports.
