The oldest conference tournament, dating back to 1953, is also the only exclusive one among the power conferences this year. The Big Ten chose to invite all 18 of its teams, while the ACC capped entry at 15. Boston College, Georgia Tech, and Notre Dame were left out, and BC and Tech responded by asking their coaches to seek employment elsewhere.
Of the 15 teams that made the field, more still have NCAA tournament hopes than in most recent years. Last year’s embarrassment, when everyone but Duke was eliminated after the first round (the Blue Devils went on to reach the Final Four, but the point remained), seems to have pushed the ACC up a notch. Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, and Miami all appear to be in solid position, while the next tier of Clemson, NC State, and SMU looks to be in decent shape.
The Bay Area teams might even be adding some weight to the conference for the first time since coming aboard. Both California and Stanford arrive in Charlotte with reason to believe they can play their way into the NCAAs. Almost everyone who’s here comes in thinking it has a chance to make a run.
Ironically, one of the teams that cannot earn an at-large bid might be the most dangerous team in the bracket.
Here’s a look at what’s at stake and who needs a big week.
Who’s Got the Most to Lose?
SMU. The Mustangs tumbled to 11th in the league after a four game losing streak, and they now likely need at least two wins to feel safe. The first game against Syracuse should be manageable, but Louisville would be waiting in the second round. SMU also just lost to the Orange on the road, and a second loss to Syracuse would probably end the Ponies’ NCAA hopes.
California has a nightmare draw. The Golden Bears would have been in much better shape had they finished outside the 8/9 game. Instead, they drew Florida State, which has been the hottest team in the ACC not named Duke. If they survive the Seminoles, Duke would likely be waiting next. Realistically, California probably needs to beat the Blue Devils to make the NCAA tournament.
Finally, Stanford vs. NC State could turn into a de facto play-in game depending on how other results unfold. The Wolfpack would likely feel comfortable if they beat the Cardinal, while the reverse is not necessarily true. Stanford is probably out with a loss to State, but State could survive a loss to Stanford. Both teams will enter feeling like they need the win, which should make it one of the more desperate games of the week.
Who’s Got the Most to Gain?
With Caleb Wilson officially shut down, North Carolina has to prove it can still be a quality team without him. If the Tar Heels make a run to the semifinals, or even upset Duke, that would go a long way toward pushing them onto the No. 4 line and giving them favorable travel for the first two rounds.
Miami has a favorable draw in front of it and a chance to grab some attention. The Hurricanes lost to Virginia by three in Charlottesville, and a neutral floor could give them a good chance to flip that result. A run to the final would significantly help Miami’s seed heading into Selection Sunday.
Who Could Surprise?
Luke Loucks and Florida State were a shade too good in the regular season. Had the Seminoles finished 10th instead of ninth, there would be real conversation about them becoming a bid thief.
As it is, the idea is not totally crazy. Florida State gave Duke a scare in a four point loss in Tallahassee, and the Seminoles have improved significantly over the past two months. Duke has little to play for beyond the trophy, as the Blue Devils will be the No. 1 seed in the East Region and possibly the top overall seed regardless of what happens in Charlotte.
If Florida State beats California and catches Duke off guard, bubble teams around the country will be holding their breath. The Seminoles have won nine of their past 11 and are absolutely capable of stealing the automatic bid.
What’s Most Likely to Happen?
Even with little motivation on paper, Duke still takes the ACC tournament very seriously. The Blue Devils have long prided themselves on being the true champion of the ACC, a conference that has historically placed significant importance on its tournament dating back to the 1960s.
As long as the Blue Devils stay focused, they are the most talented team in the field and should claim the title. Florida State likely gives them a tough battle in the quarterfinals, but Duke ultimately emerges victorious over Miami in the ACC final.
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