With a potential nine bids in play, there is plenty at stake as the ACC heads to Duluth, Georgia, for its conference tournament. The top four seeds are jockeying to secure hosting rights for the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament, while the final teams holding byes are focused on something more basic, making sure they get in at all.
After a relatively quiet Wednesday, the intensity ramps up on Thursday. From that point forward, every game carries real NCAA tournament implications.
Duke enters as both the defending champion and the top seed, but the Blue Devils are not exactly surging. They dropped two of their final three regular season games and arrive without much momentum.
Here is a look at what is at stake and which teams need a big week.
Who’s Got the Most to Lose?
Clemson and Virginia tip things off in the 8/9 game Thursday, and the loser could face an anxious wait leading up to Selection Sunday. After beating Duke on Senior Day, Clemson had a chance to remove all doubt by sweeping its Bay Area trip. Instead, the Tigers completely no-showed at Stanford and lost by 35. Now, they likely need at least one win in Duluth to feel secure.
That may not be easy against Virginia, which won the first meeting by 10. The Cavaliers dropped their final two regular season games, but both losses came against NCAA tournament teams in North Carolina and Virginia Tech. They also earned a road win at Louisville, which is arguably as impressive as Clemson’s home victory over Duke. There’s a realistic path for both teams to get in, but the loser here could be on the outside looking in if chaos hits elsewhere.
Virginia Tech and Syracuse could also be sweating Thursday. The Hokies appear more vulnerable, sitting lower on most projected seed lines and facing a potential landmine in Georgia Tech, which is playing just a few miles from their campus. If Virginia Tech handles its business, it should feel reasonably comfortable. A loss, however, would put real pressure on the committee to make a tough call.
Who’s Got the Most to Gain?
North Carolina has a double bye and a legitimate opportunity to push into the top 16. Duke and Louisville are likely to host as long as they avoid an early stumble, while Notre Dame and NC State are simply too far down the seed line without winning the conference tournament.
The Tar Heels, however, appear to be sitting right on the 4/5 line. They’ve won 12 of their last 13 games, with the lone loss coming by four points at Duke. Carolina returned the favor with a win over the Blue Devils in Chapel Hill, and Nyla Harris delivered a standout performance in that matchup. If she plays at that level again, the Heels will be difficult to knock off.
The path is challenging, but far from impossible. North Carolina will likely need to go through both Louisville and Duke, but it has already proven it can beat the ACC’s elite. If the Heels are good enough to take down the Cardinals, that 4 seed feels very attainable.
Who Could Surprise?
Notre Dame enters on a five-game winning streak and will have the best player on the floor in Hannah Hidalgo. She ranked third nationally in scoring and just dropped 30 points on Louisville in a three-point win over the Cardinals.
Hidalgo is the type of player who can take over late and drag her team across the finish line, and Notre Dame is likely headed for several tight games. The Irish will have to get through NC State, likely Duke, and then probably North Carolina or Louisville to win the ACC title. Asking one player to carry a team through three straight heavyweights is a tall order, but Hidalgo has that kind of ceiling.
Stanford’s path is far steeper. The Cardinal would need to win five games in five days to make the NCAA tournament, but it is not completely unrealistic. They beat North Carolina earlier this season and were competitive against both Duke and Louisville. A title run would be surprising, but a couple of wins would not be.
What’s Most Likely to Happen?
Duke should reach the final, but the Blue Devils didn’t look quite like themselves down the stretch. The safer bet is that either North Carolina or Louisville knocks them off in the ACC championship game. With Carolina playing far more consistently than the Cardinals, the Tar Heels feel like the choice.
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