The Big Ten’s second season in the “Big Ten Plus Eight” era has brought an awkward development. The conference tournament is now a six day event. The Big Ten was the last power conference to adopt a conference tournament, and now it is the first to expand beyond 16 teams in the field.
The expansion at least spares Penn State the indignity of being the only school to miss both the men’s and women’s conference tournaments. That happened to the Nittany Lions last year, and it would have happened again without the larger bracket. Penn State did make a run the last time the Big Ten tournament was held in Chicago, but winning six games in six days is a different challenge entirely.
With nine teams projected to make the NCAA tournament and a couple more still in play, there is plenty at stake for most of the teams in the field. Michigan enters as the favorite to repeat as conference champion, but several others have the pieces to make a deep run.
Who’s Got the Most to Lose?
Indiana didn’t need this matchup. The Hoosiers are hoping Penn State can upset Northwestern, because the Wildcats just showed they are capable of beating them in Bloomington. If Indiana loses again to Northwestern, which would effectively have the crowd advantage in Chicago, its NCAA hopes are finished.
Even if the Hoosiers survive that game, they would likely still need to win a third round matchup with Purdue. And while the Boilermakers have been struggling lately, Indiana tends to bring out the best in them.
Iowa also has plenty to lose, as it has to play an extra game thanks to the expanded bracket. If the Hawkeyes can beat Maryland or Oregon, they would likely meet Ohio State in what could amount to a de facto play-in game. The winner would almost certainly make the NCAA tournament. The loser would still have a chance, but would be far from safe.
Purdue simply needs to build some momentum to protect what it already has. The Boilermakers are unlikely to lose much ground on the seed line, especially with no particularly convenient regional location this year. But they would not want to leave Chicago with another loss and no positive momentum heading into the NCAA tournament.
Who’s Got the Most to Gain?
UCLA is surging at the right time, but the Bruins are in a strange spot. They would currently be heavy favorites to land in San Diego for the first and second rounds, which is good if the goal is simply reaching the round of 32. If they have bigger ambitions, though, that draw could be problematic because the likely second round opponent there would be Arizona.
That means UCLA needs a strong week to move up to the No. 6 line and possibly land in Gonzaga’s pod instead. Portland is not much farther than San Diego, and that would present a far more manageable second round matchup for the Bruins. They are playing well enough to earn that bump, and the bracket sets up nicely. UCLA would open against Minnesota or Rutgers, and the Bruins also drew the latest time slot for every potential game. Coming from California, UCLA would be playing 9:30 p.m. games with their body clocks still on 6:30 p.m. Pacific, which could give them a real edge over opponents from the Central and Eastern time zones.
Nebraska could also use a big week. The Cornhuskers have famously never won an NCAA tournament game, and the best way to improve their chances is by moving up to the No. 2 line. To do that, they would likely need to reach the Big Ten title game.
Who Could Surprise?
The closest thing to a surprise would be a run by Ohio State. There is a noticeable gap between the top 10 teams and the bottom eight in the field, but the Buckeyes would still need a strong performance to knock off Michigan. They are good enough to make it happen and reach the final, but it would still qualify as a surprise if they did.
Nobody in the top seven would shock anyone if they made the championship game.
What’s Most Likely to Happen?
Illinois will have the closest thing to a home court advantage in Chicago, and the Illini will show exactly why the selection committee probably cannot place them there as a No. 2 seed. Michigan was simply too strong during the regular season for Illinois to knock the Wolverines off the No. 1 line in the Midwest, but the Illini should be able to pick up a win over Michigan in front of a partisan crowd.
UCLA makes sense as the opponent in the final, as both Nebraska and Michigan State have been inconsistent down the stretch.
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