The Big 12 is not quite as deep as it has been in past seasons, but it remains a very strong league. There is plenty at stake, with anywhere from nine to as few as six NCAA tournament bids likely coming from this conference. The possibility of a bid thief also looms, especially with one of the teams in the top half of the standings, West Virginia, not particularly close to the bubble.
There is also the battle for the final No. 1 seed and several Big 12 teams have a shot to claim it. Houston remains firmly in the conversation, while Iowa State would likely need a lot of help to climb onto the top line.
The only team that arrives in Kansas City without much left to prove is top seed Arizona. At 29-2 and with little serious competition in the western half of the country, the Wildcats have almost certainly done enough to secure the No. 1 seed in the West Region. Everyone else’s fate will be determined by what happens in Kansas City.
Who’s Got the Most to Lose?
Central Florida is hanging by a thread. The Knights were in good position to qualify for the NCAA tournament before arriving in Kansas City, but a loss to West Virginia on the final day damaged them in several ways.
First, the loss dropped UCF behind the Mountaineers in the standings. The Knights could have finished seventh with a win, but instead ended up in a four way tie and came out eighth. That sets up a first game against a surging Cincinnati team. Even if UCF beats the Bearcats, Arizona would likely be waiting next. Unless the Wildcats are caught asleep at the wheel, that is a herculean task for the Knights. Given their late slide, beating Arizona might be mandatory.
Kansas and Iowa State both need strong weeks. There are two potential pods that would be ideal for the first and second rounds for both the Jayhawks and the Cyclones: St. Louis and Oklahoma City. Either would mean relatively easy travel for their fan bases. But if either team flames out early, they could be looking at Portland or possibly falling out of the top 16 altogether.
TCU is also in a position where a bad loss could hurt. The Frogs likely need to beat the winner of Oklahoma State and Colorado to feel safe. They could survive a loss to Kansas, but a defeat in their first game would leave their chances looking much more uncertain.
Who’s Got the Most to Gain?
Houston likely needs to win the tournament if it wants to claim the final No. 1 seed. The Cougars got a boost in that pursuit when Connecticut lost to Marquette, but they are still in close competition with Florida. Whichever team goes farther in its conference tournament will likely land the No. 1 seed in the South, which would essentially be a home game for Houston. Rice is serving as the host for the South Regional, meaning the Cougars could play just 2.5 miles from campus if they secure the top line.
Texas Tech could also make a move up the seed line. The Red Raiders stumbled at the end of the regular season with losses to BYU and TCU, but before that they picked up road wins at Iowa State and Arizona. They will not be intimidated by anything they see in this tournament.
Who Could Surprise?
Arizona State appears to be playing for Bobby Hurley’s job. Hurley has been the ultimate survivor in college basketball, as he seems finished almost every spring and then finds a way to do just enough to continue in Tempe. The Sun Devils might have finally run out of patience without a deep run here, but ASU did just beat Kansas at home on Senior Night. A run in this tournament would not be out of the question.
With so many quality teams in the league, almost anyone besides Kansas State and Utah is capable of making a run. No team can be completely dismissed, which makes this a difficult tournament for the bubble teams.
What’s Most Likely to Happen?
Arizona is the most talented team in the field, but not necessarily the most motivated in this situation. The Wildcats will likely reach the semifinals, but Texas Tech has more to play for at that stage and could advance to the final for that reason.
Their opponent projects to be Houston, which would claim the third meeting of the season between the teams and give the Cougars a chance to secure the final No. 1 seed.
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