Spring training is underway. As always, countless players are in the “best shape” of their lives. It is a time of optimism across the big leagues, with prospects competing for Opening Day roster spots and veterans preparing to do it all over again.
Before our weekly awards check-ins begin during the regular season, let’s take an in-depth look at the MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year races.
AL MVP
Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt Jr., and Cal Raleigh are the three frontrunners for AL MVP based on the latest odds. The trio sit well ahead of Gunnar Henderson, Nick Kurtz, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Julio Rodríguez.
We are witnessing an all-time peak from Judge. He has won MVP in three of the last four seasons and has led the majors in bWAR in each of those years. As his age-34 season approaches, there has not been the slightest sign of decline.
An OPS+ of 200 or better almost feels like a baseline. Judge is a lock to hit 50-plus homers if he plays a full season. At this point, it is fair to wonder if anyone can realistically match his production.
Raleigh, for example, had perhaps the greatest offensive season ever by a catcher and still could not top Judge. Witt posted 9.4 bWAR in 2024 and finished as the runner-up.
There is still a deep pool of legitimate MVP contenders in the American League if Judge regresses or misses significant time. Along with Witt and Raleigh, Rodríguez, Guerrero, Kurtz, and Henderson all have MVP-level upside. It is also not hard to imagine José Ramírez, Wyatt Langford, Corey Seager, or Junior Caminero forcing their way into the race.
Prediction: Aaron Judge (+185)
NL MVP
If the AL conversation centers on whether anyone can beat Judge, the NL discussion becomes whether anyone can realistically challenge Shohei Ohtani.
Ohtani has won four MVP awards in five years, including multiple seasons where his impact on the mound was limited or nonexistent. Even when he is primarily a hitter, he is nearly Judge-level at the plate, and when he does pitch, he can do so at an elite level, as shown by his 2.87 ERA in 14 starts in 2025.
Juan Soto could match or even exceed Ohtani’s offensive production, but his lack of defensive value makes it difficult to surpass a healthy Ohtani season. Ronald Acuña Jr. has already won the award, though his candidacy depends on staying healthy and returning to peak form.
Fernando Tatis Jr. and Francisco Lindor bring elite defensive value, but their offensive ceilings are lower. Tatis has posted a 121 OPS+ over the last three seasons, and Lindor has never exceeded a 137 OPS+, making it hard to outpace Ohtani or Soto over a full, healthy season.
Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll, a pair of Diamondbacks, should also be in the mix. Carroll likely has the better chance, but he would need to build on his career-best 31 home runs from 2025.
It is not a bold prediction to say Ohtani wins again. It would take something truly exceptional to derail his run of MVP dominance.
Prediction: Shohei Ohtani (-135)
AL Cy Young
Tarik Skubal is aiming to become the first pitcher to win three consecutive AL Cy Young Awards. It was another dominant campaign in 2025, even with a few second-half hiccups.
In most years, Garrett Crochet would have been a deserving winner. The Red Sox southpaw is the most obvious threat to Skubal in 2026, though there are several other arms capable of forcing their way into the race.
Hunter Brown has the combination of stuff and command to win a Cy Young. He finished third last season with a 3.14 FIP and has logged significant innings over the last three years, showing the durability and efficiency needed to rival Skubal and Crochet.
Bryan Woo and Logan Gilbert represent Seattle’s strongest challengers. Gilbert might have the higher upside of the two, but the question is whether he can sustain it across 30 or more starts.
Dylan Cease’s strikeout profile always keeps him in the conversation, though year-to-year inconsistency makes him difficult to project. Further down the board, Joe Ryan, Kyle Bradish, and Noah Cameron stand out as intriguing longshot candidates.
Ultimately, Brown checks every box to challenge Skubal and Crochet, even if both lefties stay healthy.
Prediction: Hunter Brown (+1200)
NL Cy Young
Paul Skenes is just +250 to win the NL Cy Young. Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Cristopher Sánchez are the betting market’s closest challengers, though the Dodgers are likely to be cautious with Yamamoto’s workload after his postseason heroics.
Sánchez is coming off the best season of his career. His Stuff+ took a significant jump, largely due to improvement in his sinker. The changeup remains his best pitch, but Philadelphia has clearly found a formula that works.
If he can rein in the walks, Hunter Greene has the best raw stuff of any NL starter and is positioned to make a real push for this award. His ceiling may even be higher than Sánchez’s, even if it still feels unlikely he surpasses Skenes.
Durability questions make it hard to fully buy into Blake Snell, Zack Wheeler, or Chris Sale over a full season. Logan Webb should once again pile up innings and produce strong results, but he may fall just short of the dominance needed to take home the award.
Prediction: Hunter Greene (+1400)
AL Rookie of the Year
Fresh off a stellar postseason, Trey Yesavage is deservedly considered the AL Rookie of the Year favorite. Carter Jensen has been hyped all winter after excelling in the high minors last season, and it is worth remembering Tatsuya Imai and Munetaka Murakami both qualify as rookies.
Samuel Basallo’s raw power might be more eye-catching than the all-around skill set of Kevin McGonigle. Connelly Early should be a serviceable starter for Boston, but a 98 Stuff+ does not point to a serious Rookie of the Year contender.
Walker Jenkins tore through the minors in 2025 and projects to make his debut early in 2026. His swing decisions should translate at the big-league level, even if that profile does not always win over voters.
There is a real path for Yesavage to run away with this award and even earn All-Star and Cy Young consideration. There is also a realistic scenario where he regresses and the race opens up quickly over the next few months.
Prediction: Samuel Basallo (+1000)
NL Rookie of the Year
It’s a bit surprising Konnor Griffin isn’t the favorite for this award given the praise he’s received all offseason. The consensus top prospect in baseball, Griffin has drawn comparisons to some of MLB’s most highly anticipated young stars.
If he makes Pittsburgh’s Opening Day roster, there’s every chance Griffin quickly becomes the Rookie of the Year favorite. He offers plus-plus power, a strong glove, and elite speed, and the hit tool has taken a noticeable step forward.
Nolan McLean looks like Griffin’s biggest rival. The right-hander posted a 2.06 ERA and 2.97 FIP across eight starts last year, and a 117 Stuff+ firmly places him among the game’s most electric young arms.
JJ Wetherholt should get plenty of opportunities with a rebuilding Cardinals team after putting up huge numbers between Double-A and Triple-A. If he stays healthy, the path is certainly there for him to enter this race.
Beyond that top tier, Bubba Chandler is a name to watch closely. He struggled in a brief big-league stint last season, but the raw stuff is there for him to take a major step forward and put himself on the All-Star radar as soon as 2026.
Prediction: JJ Wetherolt (+460)
*Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, February 18th
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