The quarterback conversation for this year’s NFL Draft, which begins April 23–25, starts with one near-certainty and then gets messy quickly. Fernando Mendoza has separated from the field, which comes as no surprise. Ty Simpson still holds the clearest path to QB2, but after that, there’s little agreement.
Based on a cross-check of ESPN’s four-analyst positional rankings, Jordan Reid’s final Top 500 and QB board, and Bucky Brooks’ final rankings for NFL.com, the cleanest top five right now is Mendoza, Simpson, Carson Beck, Garrett Nussmeier, and Drew Allar.
There’s no true consensus beyond the top two, but this order is a defensible snapshot. Beck gets the edge at QB3 thanks to late-cycle momentum, ranking third on multiple ESPN boards and on Brooks’ final list. Allar holds QB5 by the narrowest margin, largely because Brooks still has him there, even with Cole Payton pushing into the conversation.
1. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana
Mendoza is the easiest projection and the safest bet on the entire board. He’s QB1 everywhere that matters.
ESPN’s multi-analyst rankings have him first across the board. Jordan Reid’s final Top 500 places him as the top quarterback and a top-10 overall prospect, and Bucky Brooks has him first as well. As of April 16, 2026, FanDuel listed Mendoza at -20000 to go No. 1 overall, with BetMGM at -10000.
The production explains why there’s no real suspense. Mendoza completed 72.0% of his passes for 3,535 yards, 41 touchdowns, and just six interceptions while leading Indiana to a 16–0 season and a national championship. He also swept major awards, including the Maxwell, Walter Camp, Davey O’Brien, and Manning. Add in the fact that he was the only FBS quarterback with six games of four or more touchdowns and zero interceptions, and it’s a complete, elite résumé.
2. Ty Simpson, Alabama
If Mendoza is the clear answer, Simpson is the obvious follow-up.
The industry hasn’t moved much on him. ESPN’s analyst rankings, Bucky Brooks’ board, and Jordan Reid’s evaluations all keep him firmly in the QB2 spot.
Simpson completed 64.5% of his passes for 3,567 yards, 28 touchdowns, and five interceptions in 2025. The numbers are solid, but what stands out most is decision-making in a class where that trait separates prospects.
The concern is experience. Simpson was a one-year full-time starter, and his play can get uneven under pressure. Still, the combination of traits, anticipation, and developmental upside keeps him in line as the likely second quarterback off the board.
The betting market reflects that gap. FanDuel listed Simpson at +8000 to go No. 2 overall, a sign he’s viewed as the top quarterback after Mendoza, but not in the same tier. BetMGM’s destination market has Arizona at No. 3 as his most likely landing spot, which aligns with most expert thinking.
3. Carson Beck, Miami
This is where the confidence begins to fade.
Beck gets the edge at QB3 based on the most recent rankings. ESPN’s April boards have him as high as third, and Bucky Brooks also moved him into that spot late in the process.
The production is strong. Beck completed 72.4% of his passes for 3,813 yards and 30 touchdowns in 2025, finishing top five nationally in passing yards.
The hesitation comes from turnovers and reliance on structure. The 12 interceptions stand out, and evaluators still see a quarterback who needs the right environment to succeed.
Still, in a class without clear separation after QB2, Beck’s combination of production and late-cycle momentum gives him the edge.
4. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU
Nussmeier remains firmly in the top four, even if his 2025 season didn’t provide the same push Beck received.
Earlier evaluations had him as high as QB3, and enough of that belief still holds to keep him in this tier.
The numbers need context. Nussmeier completed 67.4% of his passes for 1,927 yards and 12 touchdowns, but his season was limited by a core injury. That disruption is a key reason his statistical profile lags behind others.
This ranking is more about traits and polish. Nussmeier still shows the ability to operate within structure and manage an offense, which keeps him in the top four despite the disappointingly quiet season.
5. Drew Allar, Penn State
Allar takes the final spot, but this is the least comfortable ranking on the board. He’s fifth on Bucky Brooks’ final NFL.com list, and Jordan Reid also had him fifth on his April 5 hot board. The complication is ESPN’s April 16 four-analyst rankings, where Allar appears on only two lists, with both Reid and Field Yates slotting Cole Payton at No. 5. So this spot comes with a bit of a warning label.
The production alone wouldn’t put him here. Allar completed 64.8% of his passes for 1,100 yards, eight touchdowns, and three interceptions in 2025, with one rushing score. He was limited to six games by a season-ending ankle injury, which is important context, because the raw numbers suggest a player slipping.
So why keep him in the top five? Traits and remaining league belief. Allar is still 6-foot-5, still has one of the best arms in the class, and still fits the mold of a developmental quarterback teams are willing to invest in. He’s holding onto QB5 for now, but could easily slip.
Draft Odds and Market Read
The betting market reinforces the separation at the top of this class.
Mendoza is effectively a lock to go No. 1 overall, with overwhelming odds across sportsbooks. As of April 16, 2026, FanDuel listed him at -20000, with BetMGM at -10000.
Simpson’s market is much softer, which reflects his status as the likely QB2 but some uncertainty as to where exactly he may land. BetMGM lists Arizona as his most likely spot at +120, while FanDuel has him at +8000 to go No. 2 overall.
That gap underscores the broader theme of this class: clarity at the top, followed by uncertainty.
Summary
Mendoza is the clear QB1 and one of the safest projections in the draft. Simpson remains the consensus QB2, with Beck holding the strongest case for QB3 based on recent movement and production.
Nussmeier stays in the top four because of his overall profile, while Allar rounds out the group on upside alone.
There’s still room for movement, especially at the back end, with Cole Payton a name to watch. For now though, this is the most likely top five based on rankings, production, and market signals.
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