The 2026 NFL Draft starts with one clear answer, then quickly turns into a stress test for every front office picking near the top. Fernando Mendoza remains the unanimous No. 1 projection on the board. After that, the next four picks become a tug-of-war between EDGE value, offensive line needs, and a rare running back prospect talented enough to challenge past draft norms.
So how does that translate on Thursday night? Here’s how I see the first five picks playing out.
No. 1: Las Vegas Raiders — Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana
Mendoza is coming out of Indiana after a redshirt-junior season that turned into one of the most remarkable title runs in recent college football history. With Mendoza under center, the Hoosiers finished 16-0 and won their first national championship.
The résumé matches the hype. Mendoza completed 72.0 percent of his passes for 3,535 yards, 41 touchdowns, and six interceptions in 16 games, while adding seven rushing scores. He led the FBS in passing touchdowns and swept all the major awards, including the Heisman, Maxwell, Walter Camp, Davey O’Brien, and Manning. ESPN’s final Big Board labels him a franchise quarterback.
Mendoza recently confirmed on The Rich Eisen Show and ESPN that he will not attend the draft in Pittsburgh. He’ll instead stay home in South Florida with his family, including his mother, whose multiple sclerosis makes travel difficult.
The betting market is aligned with the evaluation. ESPN Betting lists Mendoza at -20000 to go No. 1 overall, making this the closest thing to a formality at the top of the 2026 draft.
No. 2: New York Jets — David Bailey, EDGE, Texas Tech
The No. 2 spot has moved around, but Bailey is currently the favorite at -175, with Reese at +135. ESPN NFL Nation’s team-reporter mock draft from Tuesday also sends Bailey to the Jets, with Rich Cimini noting he gets the edge as the more pro-ready pass rusher.
Bailey is coming out of Texas Tech after a stellar senior season, though his path to Lubbock is part of the story. He spent three seasons at Stanford before transferring and breaking out in the Big 12. Texas Tech went 12-2 in 2025, and Bailey finished with 14.5 sacks, including a nation-leading 12.5 in the regular season.
Adding to an impressive resume, Bailey also picked up Big 12 Defensive Lineman of the Year, Defensive Newcomer of the Year, and first-team All-Big 12 honors, and was a unanimous consensus All-American.
The canceled Jets visit has drawn attention, but it doesn’t appear to be a deal breaker. General manager Darren Mougey said Tuesday the team already had strong touchpoints with Bailey at the combine and pro day, and cautioned against reading too much into the cancellation.
No. 3: Arizona Cardinals — Arvell Reese, EDGE/LB, Ohio State
With Bailey off the board at No. 2, Reese justifiably lands here. ESPN Betting now lists Reese as the favorite to go third at +150, with Love just behind at +170.
Reese is coming out of Ohio State after his junior year. He finished his three-year run as a consensus All-American and the Big Ten Butkus-Fitzgerald Linebacker of the Year. At 6-foot-4 and 243 pounds, he put up 69 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks, and two pass breakups in 14 games, along with five quarterback hurries. He also ran a 4.46-second 40 at the combine.
That’s why Arizona stays tied to him at this spot. Reese can be used in multiple ways and would bring needed flexibility across the front seven. The Cardinals could also look at offensive tackle here, with names like Francis Mauigoa or Spencer Fano, but Reese is the best defensive option and the direction I expect them to go.
No. 4: Tennessee Titans — Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame
Love is the most straightforward non-quarterback projection in the top five. The latest odds and mocks all point the same way, and if he’s on the board at No. 4, it’s an easy call for Tennessee.
ESPN Betting updated Tuesday with Love as the favorite to go fourth at -135, which matches how teams view him.
He’s coming out of Notre Dame after his junior year, finishing with 1,372 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns on 199 carries, along with 27 catches for 280 yards and three more scores. He also won the Doak Walker Award, made the All-America team, and was a Heisman finalist.
The bigger point is what he does to a defense. He’s not just productive, he has to be accounted for as both a runner and receiver. That’s why he’s viewed as one of the top prospects in the class, even at a position teams don’t usually take this early.
It would be a major surprise if Love doesn’t end up in Nashville.
No. 5: New York Giants — Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State
This is still the most unsettled spot in the top five, but Styles is the best current projection. The Giants now hold picks No. 5 and No. 10 after trading Dexter Lawrence II to Cincinnati, which gives them more flexibility, but hasn’t changed the outlook at the top. Styles still leads the No. 5 market.
Styles is coming out of Ohio State as a fifth-year senior. He led the team with 82 tackles in 2025, adding 6.5 tackles for loss, three pass breakups, and four quarterback hurries. He also ran a 4.46 at the combine.
The appeal is obvious. He transitioned from safety to linebacker and plays like a modern defender who can stay on the field in any situation.
This isn’t settled, though. Caleb Downs is still in play, as is Mauigoa. Jordyn Tyson has also gained momentum, especially with the Giants now able to split needs between No. 5 and No. 10. Styles is still the favorite, but not a lock.
Parting Shot
The board right now points to Mendoza, Bailey, Reese, Love, and Styles. Mendoza is the lock. Love is the strongest non-quarterback path. Bailey and Reese remain the draft’s most likely two-pick sequence, with the latest market movement leaning Bailey at No. 2 and Reese at No. 3. Styles holds No. 5 because he still has the best odds there, not because the Giants are settled.
For a different look, Mel Kiper Jr.’s latest Big Board has Love at No. 2, Reese at No. 3, Styles at No. 4, and Bailey at No. 5.
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