The 2026 NFL Draft is complete, and as the dust settles on one of the most unpredictable classes in recent memory, Rookie of the Year futures have started to take shape. Typically, this market is fairly straightforward, with top quarterbacks expected to start early leading the way. This year, that’s not the case.
There’s a real chance no rookie quarterback starts in Week 1, which shifts how this race should be viewed. Neither Mendoza nor Simpson is projected to open the season under center, and both could spend much of the year on the bench. That opens the door for other positions to shine.
We’ll take a look at a few rookies who have a legitimate path to winning, along with some early favorites that may not be as appealing as they seem. The biggest rule to keep in mind: draft position alone doesn’t make someone a strong bet.
Carnell Tate, WR, Tennessee Titans (+700)
Tate was arguably the top receiver in the draft, depending on how much weight you put on Jordyn Tyson’s injury history. Whether you had him WR1 or not, few expected him to go as high as he did.
The No. 4 pick lands in Tennessee as the clear top option in the passing game. Wan’Dale Robinson has shown flashes, but doesn’t command extra attention, and Calvin Ridley hasn’t looked like the same player since returning from his suspension.
Second-year QB Cam Ward needs a reliable go-to option, and the Titans will look to build chemistry between their first-round picks quickly. Tate should see a heavy workload right away. He’s a versatile boundary weapon who can work underneath and stretch the field, giving him multiple paths to production. If he becomes a dependable third-down option while drawing looks downfield, he will be a high-impact rookie who undoubtedly garners votes for this award.
Decision: Bet
Jeremiyah Love, RB, Arizona Cardinals (+320)
Spoiler alert and hot take all in one: Jeremiyah Love is not a serious Rookie of the Year candidate.
He’s currently the odds-on favorite across most books, largely due to being selected No. 3 overall by Arizona and the expectation of immediate involvement. That projection, however, comes with several concerns.
First, the Cardinals’ backfield is crowded. James Conner returns fresh from injury, Trey Benson is still in the mix, and Tyler Allgeier was added this offseason. That’s a lot of proven competition for touches, making a true feature role unlikely in Year 1.
Arizona is also likely to be playing from behind, which limits rushing volume and caps his overall opportunity.
None of this takes away from his talent. He may be the most gifted player in the class, and there are reasons to like him long term, but circumstances and timing matter. He’ll have some good games that get fans excited, but at this number the value is missing and there are too many questions to back him.
Decision: Pass
Jadarian Price, RB, Seattle Seahawks (+850)
Now that we’ve talked you out of the Notre Dame back taken early, let’s go the other direction with his former teammate.
Price lands in Seattle as the final pick of the first round and steps into a running back room where he should earn immediate snaps. Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker is gone, Zach Charbonnet is recovering from an ACL tear and won’t be ready for the start of the season, and Emmanuel Wilson remains more of a depth option.
With the Irish, Price was used as a change-of-pace option, but his skill set suggests a much larger role at the next level. Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba will drive the passing game, so he won’t be asked to carry a massive workload. Still, plenty of meaningful touches will come his way, and the surrounding talent should create efficient scoring chances.
If he takes control of the backfield early, he will move up the betting board quickly.
Decision: Bet
Jordyn Tyson, WR, New Orleans Saints (+750)
At his best, Tyson may be the most gifted receiver in this draft class. His situation in New Orleans mirrors Tate’s in some ways, as they both have a second-year quarterback in need of playmakers, but there are a few key differences.
He’ll be sharing the field with Chris Olave, a proven top option when healthy. Olave is expected to command a significant share of the passing game, and the Saints’ scheme also leans heavily on the tight end position. That connection, especially with Juwan Johnson, is unlikely to disappear, which limits Tyson’s overall volume.
Even in a best-case scenario where he earns a leading role, durability remains a concern. He dealt with multiple long-term injuries in college, and that risk certainly doesn’t go away at the next level.
The talent is obvious, but the combination of competition for touches and questions surrounding his ability to stay on the field makes this a difficult bet to back.
Decision: Pass
Carson Beck, QB, Arizona Cardinals (+3000)
I couldn’t resist ending with a dark horse, and if there’s a quarterback who most realistically could earn a Week 1 job, it’s third-round pick Carson Beck.
He closed his college career with a run to the national title game at Miami. The season had its ups and downs, but it also showed why he was once so highly regarded coming out of Georgia. Day 2 quarterbacks rarely step into starting roles right away, but the situation he’s entering is anything but typical.
Kyler Murray is gone, and while Jacoby Brissett is expected to lead the room, contract uncertainty and his track record leave the door open. Even if a deal gets done, he’s not the type to hold off competition if things stall early.
That could create opportunity for Beck to get on the field, and that’s all you can ask for with these types of odds.
Is he the most likely Rookie of the Year winner? No. But among the quarterbacks in this class, he may have the best path to surprising people.
Decision: Bet if you’re feeling lucky
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