The days of automatically penciling South Carolina into the SEC final are over. The Gamecocks should still get there, but they’re going to have to earn their way to the SEC title game this time around.
Of course, someone will have to beat South Carolina to keep it out of the final, and that’s much easier said than done. The Gamecocks have won five of the past six SEC tournament titles and played in the sixth. Only once in the past 11 years has the SEC final not included South Carolina.
But an SEC tournament field that includes half of the top 10 teams in the polls means several programs have a real chance. Vanderbilt, Texas, LSU and Oklahoma all have a strong shot to make a run in the SEC tournament, and there’s plenty of depth behind that group.
This should be an interesting tournament with a lot of possibilities. Here’s a look at what’s at stake and who needs a big week.
Who’s Got the Most to Lose?
Mississippi State is in a strange spot. Tiebreakers left the Bulldogs 13th in the league, and right now they’re holding onto one of the final at-large spots in the NCAA tournament. Their first opponent, Florida, is likely too far from the bubble to reach the field. Yet the Gators hold the higher seed.
That leaves Mississippi State as a team with both a lot to gain and a lot to lose. The Bulldogs must survive the first game against Florida to realistically stay in the NCAA tournament picture. If they do, the next several games become major opportunities. Mississippi State would next face Oklahoma, then LSU, and then South Carolina. There is no chance for a damaging loss in that stretch, so the Bulldogs would almost certainly qualify if they can get past Oklahoma. But a loss to Florida would likely end their season.
Tennessee didn’t get a favorable draw either. The Volunteers likely fall to the 8/9 line if they lose to Alabama, which actually has a better record and will probably receive a stronger NCAA tournament seed. And if Tennessee drops to the 8/9 spot, it would have to play in either Connecticut’s or UCLA’s subregional, since it cannot be placed in South Carolina’s or Texas’ bracket.
The Lady Vols are just 1-7 in their past eight games, with the only win coming against 14th-seeded Missouri. Tennessee could see its season come to a quick end.
Who’s Got the Most to Gain?
Kentucky is in a good spot to improve its seed. The Wildcats’ results against the top four teams do not resemble those of a typical No. 9 seed. Kentucky lost twice to Vanderbilt by a combined three points, fell by four to South Carolina, and actually beat LSU. Only Texas managed to beat the Wildcats by double digits, and Kentucky has several quality wins to its name.
As long as the Cats do not slip against 1-15 Arkansas, opportunities are there. They can beat Georgia, and they even have a chance against South Carolina. Kentucky will not be intimidated by anyone in this field.
Texas A&M needs to stack wins to make the tournament, and the Aggies have a real chance. They open against an Auburn team that has struggled to compete, then would face Mississippi and Vanderbilt. The Aggies just won at Ole Missi and are riding a five-game winning streak into Greenville. It will take a few more victories to get them into the field, but it is possible.
Who Could Surprise?
The most likely surprise team is Kentucky. The Wildcats have the toughest path because their third game would come against South Carolina, but Kentucky just played the Gamecocks and knows it can compete.
If not the Wildcats, Alabama could make a run. The Tide will not be intimidated by Tennessee, and they gave Texas a tough game in a seven-point loss. Alabama does not come in with much momentum, but that can happen when playing four top teams in a short stretch.
What’s Most Likely to Happen?
Vanderbilt looks like the best bet. The Commodores have won seven of their past eight games and have the nation’s leading scorer in Mikayla Blakes. That stretch included a 16-point win over Texas, which is why Vanderbilt sits second in the standings after tiebreakers.
It’s always difficult to pick against South Carolina, but the Gamecocks do not have an easy path this time. It’s easy to see them falling short here, then refocusing and making a deep run in the NCAA tournament. The expectation is that Vanderbilt wins the SEC tournament, while South Carolina remains a No. 1 seed in the NCAA field.
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