North Carolina has a rough situation on its hands.
With Caleb Wilson now out of action, the Tar Heels are simply not the same team. NC State took full advantage, routing Carolina by 24 in Raleigh. It’s the Tar Heels’ worst loss against the Wolfpack since 2002.
Carolina doesn’t have to worry about missing the NCAA Tournament, but the path to March success just got much tougher. They could easily end up on the 8–9 line when all is said and done.
Here’s a look at this week’s ACC power rankings.
1. Duke Blue Devils (24–2)
Duke has shown all year that it’s the class of the ACC. The Blue Devils embarrassed Syracuse last time out, improving to 12-1 in conference play. Duke has a major nonconference test this week on a neutral floor versus Michigan, but within the ACC, it’s hard to see anyone matching up with them, outside of perhaps Virginia.
2. Virginia Cavaliers (23–3)
Virginia’s defense is starting to resemble the Tony Bennett era. Ryan Odom has the Cavaliers back near the top of the league, and he’s doing it with a style that feels familiar to longtime fans.
None of Virginia’s last six opponents have reached 70 points. The Cavaliers don’t play as slowly as they once did, but the defensive intensity remains, and that travels well in March.
3. Miami Hurricanes (21–5)
Quietly, Miami has positioned itself for a double-bye in the ACC Tournament. The Hurricanes are living a bit dangerously after a pair of one-point wins, but wins are wins.
And they matter even more when they come against fellow bubble teams like NC State and Virginia Tech. Miami gets a no-risk, all-reward opportunity this weekend at Virginia. Win that, and the Hurricanes could jump into second place in the ACC while locking up their NCAA Tournament bid.
4. NC State Wolfpack (19–8)
NC State more than made up for its loss to Miami by blasting North Carolina. The Tar Heels were short-handed, but it will count the same in the metrics.
The Wolfpack still have two major Quad 1 opportunities remaining, at Virginia and at home against Duke. Even a split likely puts NC State in the NCAA field.
5. Louisville Cardinals (19–7)
This result may have been coming for Louisville. The Cardinals had won six straight before falling at SMU, a team that badly needed a Quad 1 win.
Louisville still has plenty of margin for error, but they need to take care of business this week. Games against Georgia Tech and North Carolina provide a chance to get back on track quickly.
6. SMU Mustangs (18–8)
Finally, the Mustangs got the win they needed. SMU had been close against Duke, NC State, and Virginia, but had nothing to show for it until beating Louisville.
Now they have a second Quad 1 win and are back on the right side of the bubble. Avoiding a slip-up against Boston College this weekend is critical.
7. North Carolina Tar Heels (20–6)
This likely gets worse before it gets better. Without Caleb Wilson, North Carolina just doesn’t have the firepower to match the ACC’s top teams.
The good news is the schedule softens, and Wilson could return before the regular-season finale at Duke. The bad news is the next opponent is a Syracuse team desperate for a win.
8. Clemson Tigers (20–7)
A three-game skid has Clemson trending in the wrong direction. Losses to Wake Forest and Virginia Tech sting at this point in the season.
The Tigers can steady themselves against Florida State, which is a game they simply cannot afford to lose. A Quad 3 defeat now would do serious damage to their resume.
9. California Golden Bears (18–8)
California has no margin for error the rest of the way. Outside of wins at Miami and against North Carolina at home, the profile lacks depth.
The next stretch includes Stanford, SMU, and Pittsburgh. A loss in any of those will likely take the Bears out of tournament consideration.
10. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (14–12)
Is it too little, too late for Wake Forest? Maybe not, after three straight wins. The victory over Clemson at least gives the Deacons a pulse, though they still lack a Quad 1 win.
They have a shot at Virginia Tech, and it’s essentially a must-win. Wake needs to prove this recent run is real.
11. Florida State Seminoles (13–13)
Winners of five of their last six, Florida State is not a team any bubble hopeful wants to face right now. The Seminoles are playing loose and confident basketball.
That makes them dangerous for both Clemson and Miami down the stretch.
12. Virginia Tech Hokies (17–10)
If you’re trying to make the NCAA Tournament, you can’t lose a Quad 3 home game by 20. Virginia Tech did just that.
The Hokies had a chance to make up for it at Miami but came up one point short. The Wake Forest game is now a must-win, even with two Quad 1 opportunities still ahead.
13. Stanford Cardinal (16–10)
Losing to Wake Forest didn’t help, but Stanford could survive that. Avoiding losses to Boston College and Georgia Tech was critical, and they did.
They likely need at least two Quad 1 wins down the stretch to secure a spot in the field.
14. Syracuse Orange (15–12)
Adrian Autry is fighting for his job, and a blowout loss to Duke didn’t help. Syracuse has been solid at home but largely ineffective on the road.
They get a wounded North Carolina team at home, and it’s as close to must-win as it gets.
15. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12–14)
At least Notre Dame is still competing. The Irish showed that with a decisive win over Georgia Tech and are still pushing to make the ACC Tournament.
That effort alone should help Micah Shrewsberry’s case for another year in South Bend.
16. Pittsburgh Panthers (9–17)
Pitt’s schedule has been brutal lately, but the struggles have been there all season. Losses to teams like Quinnipiac still weigh heavily.
Even with a tough recent stretch against Clemson, Virginia, SMU, North Carolina, and Duke, it hasn’t been enough to keep them out of the basement tier.
17. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (11–16)
Georgia Tech is becoming less competitive by the week. None of their last four games have been decided by fewer than 10 points.
At this point, only a win over Boston College is keeping them out of last place.
18. Boston College Eagles (9–17)
The Eagles have been more competitive lately, but they have still lost seven straight. Boston College hasn’t finished with a winning record in the ACC since 2011, and the Eagles have not finished better than 10th since the league expanded in 2013.
It’s another rough year and might be the end for Earl Grant.
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