Whether it’s the NET in college basketball or the RPI in baseball, NCAA selection committees usually have a metric they can lean on to explain why one team got in over another. Unless, of course, they decide to ignore it entirely and justify the decision some other way.
The latter occurred on Monday, as Mercer was left out of the NCAA tournament with an RPI of 28, normally good enough to warrant consideration as a No. 2 regional seed. Meanwhile, North Carolina State got into the field with an RPI of 51, typically well beyond consideration.
And based on the numbers, there’s frankly no way to justify this decision other than NC State plays in the ACC and Mercer plays in the Southern Conference.
Mercer had a stronger RPI. It won 44 games on the season. It even went to Georgia Tech, the ACC champion and the No. 2 overall seed and won. NC State won just one of its final five series and flamed out in its first game of the ACC tournament. Yet when the committee made its decision, the Wolfpack landed in the Auburn Regional as the No. 3 seed, and the Bears saw their season end.
Ridiculously, NCAA committee chair Michael Alford, who doubles as the athletic director of ACC member Florida State, cited the eye test as something the committee considered. If that’s the case, Alford didn’t arrive in Charlotte for the ACC tournament until well after Tuesday, because NC State looked nothing like a tournament team in giving up 21 runs in losing its first ACC tournament game to 16th-placed Duke.
Perhaps the Wolfpack will go on a heater and justify the committee’s choice. Maybe Mercer, which did go 0-4 against Florida State and Oregon State, would have gone two-and-out. But based on the resume, the Bears were more deserving of the bid.
Here’s a look at some other committee decisions.
Power Conferences Supersede Everything Else
It’s hard to glance at the field and not conclude that power conference membership means a lot. The five baseball power conferences: the SEC, ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and the Sun Belt (yes, the Sun Belt indeed counts as a power conference on the diamond) swallowed up 31 of the 35 at-large bids this season.
Independent Oregon State, which understandably gets treated like a power conference school, claimed one as well, leaving just three at-large spots for the mid-majors. Missouri State, Liberty and Cal-Santa Barbara were the only ones to qualify, which is drastically low.
It’s likely to get worse next year. With Oregon State reforming the Pac-12 and bringing along teams like Texas State, Dallas Baptist and Washington State, there will be six genuine power conferences. Teams like High Point, Miami-Ohio and Texas-San Antonio already found themselves on the outside looking in, and that trend seems like it will only continue.
Finishing Strong and Tournament Results Didn’t Matter
If it did, NC State and Kentucky wouldn’t have made the field. State’s comparison to Mercer was documented above, but the Wolfpack also struggled to compare to conference rival Pittsburgh. While State had the better conference record, Pitt finished with a better overall record and a better RPI.
The Panthers also gave a much better showing at the ACC tournament, winning three games and beating nationally seeded Florida State before exiting to North Carolina. Yet the NCAA chose to ignore that, as well as the fact that State only won one series against a tournament team.
Kentucky also qualified over Vanderbilt, despite losing a series to the Commodores and losing again to Vandy at the SEC tournament. Here, the NCAA committee could point to RPI, as Vandy’s RPI of 72 didn’t cut it. Kentucky’s RPI of 37 was more reasonable, but the Wildcats lost eight of their final nine series. The win was over Tennessee, a tournament team, but they also lost two of three to both Missouri and South Carolina, which both had an RPI above 100.
The committee’s message here wasn’t clear or consistent. The only things it seemed to prioritize were conference affiliation and scheduling good opponents.
UCLA Got The Path It Earned
Now comes the hard part for the Bruins. Historically, the No. 1 overall seed has not translated to championships in college baseball. Since 1999, Tennessee in 2024 is the only overall top seed to win the College World Series.
Four of the past six No. 1 overall seeds didn’t even make it to Omaha. That includes last year’s Vanderbilt team, which went down in its regional. It also includes the 2019 UCLA squad, as the Bruins have been down this road before. This marks the third time in 11 years that UCLA has had the No. 1 overall seed, but they didn’t make it to Omaha either time. In 2019, they went down in the Super Regionals, and in 2015, they fell at the regional hurdle.
That said, UCLA’s path looks really straightforward. Virginia Tech’s numbers suggest the Hokies deserved a No. 3 seed, but instead they’re a No. 2. Cal Poly and Saint Mary’s won’t scare anyone as the respective No. 3 and No. 4 seeds in the Los Angeles regional. And if they reach the Supers, none of the quartet of West Virginia, Wake Forest, Kentucky or Binghamton should be particularly worrisome.
The Bruins should make it to Omaha. But that’s been said about plenty of No. 1 seeds before.
The Midwestern Hosts Could Have Problems
When the SEC and the ACC gobble up a combined 21 spots, and bracketing rules prevent conference teams from meeting in regional play, certain teams will have bigger challenges caused by their geography.
Nebraska and Kansas find themselves in those positions. The Cornhuskers and the Jayhawks both get to host this year, and their central location means any team could go to Lincoln or Lawrence. Both were ideal choices to send a non-hosting SEC team, as Nebraska got Ole Miss and Kansas got Arkansas.
The Cornhuskers then added Arizona State from the Big 12, giving them a tough second game no matter who they end up facing. Kansas couldn’t get a Big 12 opponent, but instead got Missouri State out of Conference USA. The Bears’ powerful hitting helped them earn a top 25 RPI and an at-large bid, meaning that’s no easy matchup either.
This is a fact of life in the superconference era, especially if the committee is going to keep loading the field with the SEC and ACC. Only one regional (Eugene) doesn’t have either conference involved, and six of them have both. For hosts outside those two leagues, it’s almost a lock that one of those conferences is coming to their regional.
The SEC Remains a Favorite
The league gets respect for a reason: it keeps winning in Omaha. The past six national titles have gone to an SEC school, and only three of the past 16 teams to reach the championship series aren’t currently in the league.
The SEC got a lot of respect again. Five of the top eight national seeds are SEC schools, as Georgia, Auburn, Texas, Alabama and Florida are all bracketed to reach Omaha. As long as the league keeps winning titles, it will keep getting high seeds in May.
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