The 2026 season is officially underway, and Justin Rose just put the entire Tour on notice with a wire-to-wire performance at Torrey Pines that never gave the field a chance to breathe. Meanwhile, Si Woo Kim, Pierceson Coody, and Ryo Hisatsune chased him home in a T2 that felt like a warning label for anyone expecting a quiet early-season West Coast swing, and also schooled me on what dead heat odds actually amount to.
This week’s preview hits one of my personal favorites, the WM Phoenix Open, a party and a PGA staple in the heat of the desert.
Opening Scene / This Week on Tour
TPC Scottsdale doesn’t pretend to be subtle. It’s desert golf with bright sunlight, quick transitions from calm to chaos, and the loudest par-3 in America sitting right in the middle of it. The WM Phoenix Open runs February 5–8, and if you want a serious golf tournament wrapped inside a major sporting weekend, this is the stop. Super Bowl Sunday and the Phoenix Open at the same time? Bring your Liquid IV and plan to stay through Monday.
The vibes here are infamous, but the scoring is real. You still have to hit it the right distance in thin air, deal with bouncy lies in overseeded rough, and stay patient on a course that can hand you birdies in bunches and then turn around and punish one sloppy swing.
The Setup: Tournament Stakes, Field, and Storylines
Scottie Scheffler headlines the field and arrives with a résumé that forces sportsbooks to shade the market hard. His win at The American Express was the 20th PGA Tour victory of his career, and this is also the venue where he broke through for his first Tour win back in 2022. Add in another win here in 2023 and a T3 in 2024, and you’re looking at a course history that isn’t marketing, it’s data. TPC Scottsdale clearly fits Scheffler’s game.
He tees off at 9:15 a.m. Thursday with Chris Gotterup and Jordan Spieth.
The supporting cast is strong as well. Brooks Koepka, Xander Schauffele, and Viktor Hovland are all confirmed, along with Ben Griffin, Hideki Matsuyama, Collin Morikawa, and Si Woo Kim, whose putter has been hot and who’s been close in multiple events already this season. This tournament often turns into a putting contest late, and Kim feels like one of the few who could realistically push Scheffler if it comes down to that.
The Course: What It Demands and What It Punishes
TPC Scottsdale’s Stadium Course is a par 71 at 7,261 yards, built to tempt aggression while quietly punishing mistakes. It’s a Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish design, later redesigned by Weiskopf, and has hosted this event for decades.
The par-3 16th, “the Coliseum,” is the obvious headline. Crowd noise and beer cans are part of the hazard. The hole is short enough to feel attackable but tight enough to expose even the smallest miss in distance control. Players who win here don’t just survive the chaos, they manage their adrenaline and still hit the right number.
The bigger theme is approach precision and disciplined driving lines. Fairways are generous, but desert angles matter. From the wrong side you’re dealing with flyers, spin loss, or shots that look perfect until they land five yards long and won’t stop. The winner will feast on the three par-5s and avoid bleeding strokes on the longer par-4s.
Who Fits Here: Player Archetypes and Names to Know
The cleanest fit is elite tee-to-green with repeatable distance control. That’s why Scheffler is priced like a chalk favorite. He can separate from the field without needing a miracle week on the greens.
Next is the elite iron player whose ceiling shows up when wedges and mid-irons are dialed. Collin Morikawa fits that profile perfectly. When his approach play is sharp, he turns this place into a parade of looks inside 20 feet.
Then there’s the momentum rider with a hot putter. Si Woo Kim lives in that lane. His Torrey Pines form mattered because he stayed in contention for 72 holes on a demanding course. He’s been knocking all season, and Phoenix feels like one of his better chances.
Betting Board: Odds, Angles, and Smart Plays
As of February 3, DraftKings lists Scheffler at +225, with Xander Schauffele at +1900 and Cameron Young at +2400. Si Woo Kim sits at +2700 and is a strong value given his early-season form.
For placement markets, Scheffler is -188 for Top 5 and -380 for Top 10. Schauffele sits at +340 and +168, while Kim is +440 and +210. The books are basically daring you to fade Scheffler, but there’s real opportunity in placement bets if you want exposure without needing the outright.
One-and-Done / Season-Long Strategy
Using Scheffler in One-and-Done is defensible, but potentially inefficient if your league rewards saving top-end players for majors and signature events with larger purses.
A smarter approach in Phoenix is often separating “who can win” from “who I can afford to spend.” That usually means deploying a high-floor player with top-10 upside, someone whose ball-striking travels and who isn’t priced like a must-win. If you’re saving Scheffler, Xander Schauffele is a strong alternative here.
What I’m Watching When the First Tee Shot Flies
Three things: how hot Scheffler looks early, where Si Woo Kim sits heading into Friday, and which surprise names the odds didn’t fully account for.
I want birdies on the par-5s and solid scoring on the par-3s, especially 16 on Thursday when the crowds are loud but not yet feral. This is also a great week to watch how players respond to crowd energy. It’s not a stat you’ll find anywhere, but it shows up in decision-making, especially late on the weekend.
The Takeaway
Phoenix is a spotlight tournament disguised as a regular stop. The course is gettable, the atmosphere is one-of-a-kind, and the winner is usually the player who turns strong tee-to-green golf into stress-free birdies while avoiding the desert’s easy penalties.
Scheffler is the clear headline, but the field has real depth. Place something early if you like a favorite, then wait until Friday to get aggressive once you see who actually shows up. Enjoy this one, and let us know how you did.
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