Wednesday night proved a disaster for top teams on the road in college basketball. Michigan State took a bad loss to Minnesota, falling by three to the Gophers. BYU fell in Stillwater against Oklahoma State.
Most stunning of all, Gonzaga lost to Portland, something that almost never happens. Over the past 25 years, Gonzaga has gone 47-3 against the Pilots, and their only two losses to Portland in the past 20 years both came in Oregon.
It’s a common occurrence, and it’s one that frustrates many bettors as well as coaches: home underdogs cashing against stronger teams in conference play.
But why does it happen, and how can you use it to your advantage? Here’s a look at home underdogs in conference play and why they cash.
Difficult Travel
Travel takes its toll on teams. In the superconference era, travel has become so much worse for college basketball teams, who have to play two and sometimes three games a week. Last year, UCLA coach Mick Cronin famously complained about having seen the Statue of Liberty at the airport twice in the span of a month when the Bruins had to play Rutgers.
When a team has to travel across time zones, it’s difficult to adjust the body clock on a short turnaround. In the non-conference schedule, teams can set their schedule so that they have time to adjust and can play their best basketball. In conference play, there’s rarely enough time for that.
Conference play also frequently involves travel to difficult-to-reach locations. In the Big Ten, Penn State regularly gives visiting opponents fits in the Bryce Jordan Center. Over a stretch of three home games against Michigan State, Illinois and Michigan, Penn State lost by a combined 14 points. The Nittany Lions were getting at least 12 points in every game.
Why were the Nittany Lions so competitive at home? One reason is there’s no good way to get to University Park. Flights only arrive from Washington and Chicago at its airport, so most Big Ten teams have to either charter a flight or bus over from Pittsburgh. By the time they arrive, they’re not anywhere near top condition.
Fired Up Home Crowds
Home crowds get bigger during the conference season because fans are seeing some of the biggest names in the country. In the Big East, everyone plays everyone twice a season, which means fans see every school in the league at least once.
Providence fans provide a top-quality home court advantage. The Friars routinely play their best basketball against regional rivals such as Connecticut and Villanova. When a team has a strong crowd behind them, that can spur them on to challenge a more talented team.
Home crowds also provide major distractions for the visiting team. When the crowd is loud from the beginning, coaches have a hard time getting instructions to their players. Free throws become harder, and mistakes are much easier to make. All of that adds up over the course of a game.
Packed Schedules and Trap Games
When the games keep coming, especially against top teams, the mental load weighs on the players. Michigan State’s loss to Minnesota was a perfect example. The Spartans had just played Michigan, and they had a visit from Illinois scheduled for the weekend. In between was a trip to Minnesota.
The Spartans came out flat after the emotional high of battling the Wolverines, and they quickly found themselves down double digits. After facing Michigan, Michigan State didn’t have enough energy left to overcome the deficit and ran out of time.
Minnesota entered that game on a seven-game losing streak. The Golden Gophers were home before a fired-up crowd, and they were playing with no pressure. The longer Minnesota held control of the game, the more the Gophers believed they should win. Once the horse is out of the barn, it’s too late to pull it back.
Using the Schedule
As a bettor, using the schedule to your advantage can give you an edge. If a team is coming off a tough trip, or facing a fired up home team, watch to see if the spread looks off. If the home team is catching more than a couple baskets, there might be an opportunity to fade the public. And any time you can fade the public by using a proven strategy, you’ve got a good chance to cash a bet.
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