For starting pitchers, there are few things more frustrating than delivering a quality start only to watch the bullpen blow it.
Teams with poor bullpens quickly earn a reputation among bettors as ones to avoid, or even to fade. Even when they send a strong starter to the mound, there’s always the risk that the bullpen will erase the starter’s good work.
That is why first five innings bets have become so popular. They take the bullpen out of the equation. You only have to cover 15 outs, and most starters are capable of handling that. If you have a clear pitching edge on one side, backing that starter to handle his work and get out is a viable and common strategy.
Before you put it into practice, though, make sure you are using it in the right spots. First five innings bets work best when you have a favorable pitching matchup and a bullpen behind it that you do not fully trust.
Here is what you should consider as you build that strategy.
Pitching Consistency
Betting the first five innings requires a starting pitcher you can trust to safely get you into the sixth. You want to back a pitcher who consistently gets outs and does it in a repeatable way.
That means focusing on strikeout rates and WHIP. A pitcher who limits baserunners is much harder to score against. In a first five innings bet, there are typically only a handful of runs scored, so every run carries more weight. That makes a consistent, reliable starter extremely valuable.
Opposing Lineups
Some pitchers, like Roy Halladay, Greg Maddux, Jacob deGrom, and Shane Bieber at their peaks, are essentially matchup proof. They can go out and handle any lineup, no matter how stacked it is. Others are very good, but can be vulnerable to the wrong lineup on the wrong day.
That is why checking the opposing lineup matters. If you have a strikeout pitcher facing a team that strikes out often, that is a strong signal. If the opposing offense is struggling to hit its weight, it is usually a good spot to fade them in a first five bet. And if a pitcher has a track record of success against that lineup, it is reasonable to expect that trend to continue.
Run Support
Teams that score early are strong first five candidates, even if they do not have the better pitcher on the mound. In a five-inning market, there are fewer opportunities to score, so getting ahead quickly carries more weight.
Some offenses take time to settle in. Hitters adjust to the pitcher, the lighting, and the rhythm of the game. Teams that tend to strike early can build a lead before the opposing lineup has a chance to adjust, which is valuable in a first five setting.
There is also a psychological edge. A pitcher working with an early lead can attack the zone more aggressively. Knowing he has a cushion allows him to trust his secondary pitches and work with more confidence, which often makes him harder to hit.
Bullpen Strength
A weak bullpen is an important component in betting the first five. That’s because if you could trust the bullpen, you’d want to ride with the bet for the whole game. The best first-five bets are ones where it makes sense for you to get the bet in and get out before the bullpen causes a problem.
A few years ago, the Philadelphia Phillies were a prime example. They had quality starters and a solid offense, but their bullpen couldn’t be trusted at all. Rather than subject themselves to that uncertainty, bettors jumped on the Phillies as a first-five bet, so they wouldn’t have to worry about losing the bet late.
The weaker the bullpen is, the more value you’ll find in going first-five instead of full-game bets.
A weak bullpen is a key factor in first five betting. If you could trust the bullpen, you would simply play the full game. The best first-five bets are spots where you want exposure to the starting pitcher but prefer to get out before the bullpen becomes a liability.
A few years ago, the Philadelphia Phillies were a perfect example. They had quality starters and a solid offense, but the bullpen was unreliable. Rather than risk a late collapse, bettors targeted the Phillies in first-five markets to avoid that uncertainty.
The weaker the bullpen is, the more value you’ll find in going first-five instead of full-game bets.
Home Underdogs
This matters in first-five betting because the home team gets its turn in the bottom of the fifth. In some cases, the bet can already be decided before that final at bat.
By the fifth inning, managers are starting to call the game more actively. They are thinking about whether their starter can go one more inning or if it is time to make a move. The home team also gets that last opportunity in the first-five window to dictate the flow of the game.
That is an advantage for bettors. The home team will be pushing to grab the lead before the bullpens take over. Having the lead when the starters exit gives the manager more control and puts the pressure on the opponent.
It is an underrated edge in first-five markets, but it is a valuable one. Any time you can find a strong case to back a home underdog in this spot, it is worth serious consideration.
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