After one full day of action-packed basketball, filled with several fun upsets and a few expected blowouts, it’s time to turn our attention to Friday’s slate. The schedule is loaded with tight spreads and a few games that look lopsided on paper, but in March, anything can happen.
We went 8-8 on Day 1, but we expect better. Let’s dive into Day 2 and start padding those wallets.
No.10 Santa Clara (+3.5) v. No.7 Kentucky
To kick off Friday’s slate, we have the public’s favorite upset pick in Santa Clara over Kentucky. Normally I lean against the public, but the Broncos have the profile to give this $22 million Kentucky roster real problems.
Santa Clara brings an excellent offense, averaging 82.8 points per game, and backs it up defensively by forcing more than 14 turnovers per contest. They can match up physically as well, with a long, athletic roster that ranks 33rd nationally in height.
The résumé is there too, with wins over Xavier, Nevada, Minnesota, and two over Saint Mary’s. Santa Clara has shown it can compete with quality teams, and this sets up as a spot where they can keep things tight.
Pick: Santa Clara +3.5
No.12 Akron (+7.5) v. No.5 Texas Tech
Of any mid-major in the tournament, Akron is my favorite, coming off its third straight MAC tournament title. The Zips bring an elite scoring profile, averaging 88.4 points per game, fueled by 37.9% shooting from beyond the arc.
Tavari Johnson is the engine offensively, putting up 20.1 points and five assists per game. On the other side, Texas Tech is coming off an Elite Eight run but is without its star, JT Toppin, due to a torn ACL. That loss significantly impacts their ability to control the glass and generate second-chance points.
This sets up well for Akron, allowing the Zips to dictate tempo and lean into their offensive strengths against a Texas Tech team that could struggle to keep up.
Pick: Akron +7.5
No.16 LIU v. No.1 Arizona (-30.5)
As much as I enjoy hearing “Fins up” from LIU’s student section, I think this impressive season for the Sharks comes to a screeching halt this afternoon. LIU brings a fast-paced offense that averages 14.3 fast-break points per game, but that likely won’t be near enough in this matchup.
Arizona has been dominant of late, riding a 9-0 run since two close losses in early February. The Wildcats have the edge across the board, and their size should be a major factor, with their bigs poised to control the paint on both ends.
Pick: Arizona -30.5
No.14 Wright St. (+17.5) v. No.3 Virginia
When I look at Wright State, I see a team full of heart, and that matters in March. The Raiders fought their way into the tournament with a 12-point comeback against Detroit Mercy to win the Horizon League and secure their auto-bid.
Defensively, they are a problem, setting a school record with 148 blocks this season. They’ve also been solid against the number, going 6-2 ATS in their last eight, while Virginia is just 3-10 ATS in its final 13 regular-season games.
I’m not saying Virginia and first-year head coach Ryan Odom are headed home in the first round, but asking them to cover 17.5 points feels like a stretch in this spot.
Pick: Wright St. +17.5
No.15 Tennessee St. v. No.2 Iowa State (-24.5)
Iowa State may have the best three-headed attack in the entire tournament, led by Milan Momcilovic, who averages 17.1 points per game and may be the best shooter in the country, hitting 49.6% from beyond the arc. Alongside him, Joshua Jefferson and Tamin Lipsey each average over 13 points and five rebounds per game, giving the Cyclones a balanced and dangerous core.
Iowa State fans also travel extremely well, as shown by the sea of gold and cardinal that took over the Big 12 Tournament, and that support should carry into St. Louis.
Tennessee State brings relentless defense, forcing nearly 15 turnovers per game, but that won’t be enough to disrupt Iowa State. The Cyclones have already proven they can compete with and beat top-tier teams, and this sets up as another spot where they should comfortably take care of business.
Pick: Iowa State -24.5
No.13 Hofstra (+11.5) v. No.4 Alabama
With Aden Holloway out following his arrest just before the tournament, there’s a real chance we see a 12 vs. 13 matchup in the Midwest Round of 32 with Akron and Hofstra. Alabama’s offense is still dangerous, but losing its second-leading scorer, Holloway, who averages 16.8 points per game, could create some early issues.
Hofstra has the profile to take advantage. The Pride hold opponents to just 38.7% shooting, a top-five mark nationally, and their defensive discipline shows up on every possession. They also bring a strong backcourt, with both guards averaging over 16 points and four assists per game.
Hofstra has the pieces to challenge Alabama, and I like their chances to keep this one close.
Pick: Hofstra +11.5
No.9 Utah State (-1.5) v. No.8 Villanova
Utah State head coach Jerrod Calhoun did not hold back on the Aggies’ draw, calling the seeding “absolutely atrocious,” and he may have a point. Utah State is a well-rounded team, with a top-40 offense averaging 81.7 points per game and a top-50 defense that generates 8.7 steals per contest.
Villanova, meanwhile, is battle-tested in the Big East, with six of its eight losses coming against ranked opponents, but the Wildcats are coming off a poor loss to Georgetown in the Big East Tournament and look vulnerable.
Mountain West teams have historically struggled against the spread in the tournament, going 10-21, but this feels like a spot where Utah State uses the perceived slight as motivation and finds a way to cover.
Pick: Utah State -1.5
No.11 Miami OH (+11.5) v. No.6 Tennessee
Miami (OH) heard all the noise about its 31-0 regular season being a product of a weak schedule. Even after an early exit in the MAC Tournament, the RedHawks are starting to answer those doubts, coming off an impressive 10-point First Four win over SMU.
Miami showcased its offensive firepower in that game, scoring nearly 90 points and knocking down 16 threes at a 39% clip. That kind of perimeter shooting can travel.
Tennessee, meanwhile, isn’t quite the dominant version we’re used to, dropping three of its last four regular-season games. The Volunteers will attack the glass, but Miami’s scoring ability gives it a real chance to keep this one close.
Pick: Miami (OH) +11.5
No.9 Iowa (-2.5) v. No.8 Clemson
Another 8 vs. 9 coin-flip matchup, with Iowa facing Clemson. These two teams are as similar as it gets stylistically, both looking to control tempo and grind games down, so expect a slow, back-and-forth battle.
We saw what Ben Stirtz and head coach Ben McCollum did last year at Drake in their underdog win over Missouri, and there are similarities here. With Stirtz now averaging 20 points per game as a starter for Iowa and Clemson without its second-leading scorer, Carter Welling, the Hawkeyes have the edge.
Pick: Iowa -2.5
No.5 St. John’s (-9.5) v. No.12 Northern Iowa
St. John’s got a raw deal from the selection committee and clearly deserved better than a No. 5 seed. Based on relative rating versus seeding, the Red Storm stand out as one of the most under-seeded teams in the field.
Rick Pitino’s squad has been dominant, winning 19 of their last 20 games and capping it with a statement win over UConn by 20 in the Big East Championship. They are playing as well as anyone in the country right now.
Northern Iowa brings a suffocating defense, allowing the fewest points per game in the nation and ranking 24th in adjusted defensive rating. But the offense is a major concern, averaging just 69.9 points per game, which ranks near the bottom nationally, along with a middling offensive rating.
More importantly, Northern Iowa has not faced a team like St. John’s. The Red Storm average 81.6 points per game, have the Big East Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year in Zuby Ejiofor, and feature a deep, talented roster across the board.
The narrative will be that Northern Iowa can slow this game down, but I think St. John’s overwhelms them and pulls away.
Pick: St. John’s -9.5
No.10 UCF v. No.7 UCLA (-5.5)
UCF has been a rollercoaster all season, with impressive wins over Kansas, Texas Tech, and BYU, but also some ugly losses, including two to West Virginia. The Knights have already exceeded expectations just by making the tournament after being projected to finish 14th in the Big 12.
That said, this is a tough matchup. UCLA is expected to have Donovan Dent and Tyler Bilodeau back, and the Bruins closed the regular season strong, winning four of their last five.
Dent, in particular, is a game changer. Over his last eight games, he has racked up 78 assists to just six turnovers, controlling the game at an elite level.
UCF will compete, but UCLA has the talent and stability to take this one.
Pick: UCLA -5.5
No.15 Queen’s University v. No.2 Purdue (-25.5)
This will be Queen’s first and only trip to the tournament before merging with Elon athletics, and unfortunately, it feels like Purdue ends the run here.
On the positive side, Queen’s brings plenty of offensive firepower, averaging 84.9 points per game, hitting 10.3 threes per contest, and shooting 48.2% from the field. They have the ability to score and won’t go quietly.
But as much as Queen’s can compete offensively, Purdue’s talent and composure will ultimately be too much.
Pick: Purdue -25.5
No.16 Prairie View A&M v. No.1 Florida (-35.5)
It is surprising Prairie View A&M even made the tournament, considering they were seven games below .500 just a month ago. They caught fire late, winning five of their final six regular-season games and then four straight to claim the SWAC title.
As great as that run was, this is still a severely flawed team. Prairie View ranks 289th in shooting percentage and 346th in assists to field goals made. They struggle to move the ball and go long stretches without scoring, which is a tough combination at this level.
A 35.5-point spread is massive, but this is simply a mismatch. It’s hard to trust Prairie View to keep pace, and Florida has everything needed to run away with this one.
Pick: Florida -35.5
No.13 Cal Baptist v. No.4 Kansas (-14.5)
We saw what AJ Dybantsa did in the first round, even in a loss, and that performance makes this a fun spot to watch Darryn Peterson against a lesser opponent in Cal Baptist. Kansas should take care of business, but this one is a bit lower on my confidence scale, as Cal Baptist does have some upset potential.
The Lancers are led by Dominique Daniels Jr., who averages 23.2 points per game and consistently crashes the glass. As a team, they rank 13th nationally in rebounds per game at 39.9, giving them a path to stay competitive.
Still, Kansas has the higher ceiling and the talent to control this game. If they come out sharp, they should handle business and position themselves for a potential Sweet 16 matchup with Duke.
Pick: Kansas -14.5
No.15 Furman v. No.2 UConn (-20.5)
Yes, Furman upset Virginia in 2023, but the numbers don’t support it this time around. Outside of a strong two-point percentage at 59%, driven by a lineup full of size, there isn’t much that stands out.
UConn, meanwhile, comes in motivated after a 20-point loss to St. John’s in the Big East Championship, and you know Dan Hurley will have this group ready. The Huskies are one of the most complete teams in the country, ranking seventh in both assists per game and points allowed, along with 11th in blocks.
It’s hard to see Furman keeping pace here. UConn has too much talent, too much structure, and too much motivation. This has the look of a runaway.
Pick: UConn -20.5
No.10 Missouri v. No.7 Miami FL (-1.5)
To close out the Round of 64, we get Missouri vs. Miami (FL), and this one should be a good one. It features a clash of two of the best forwards in the country, with Mark Mitchell and Malik Reneau going head-to-head.
Missouri should have a strong crowd, with St. Louis just a two-hour drive from Columbia, but the Tigers have gone cold down the stretch, dropping three very winnable games due to poor ball control.
If Missouri can take care of the ball and limit the sloppy turnovers, they certainly have a chance. But Miami’s balanced scoring attack feels like the side to favor, so we’re backing the Canes here.
Pick: Miami -1.5
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