The first weekend of March Madness wraps up today, and things are starting to tighten up. Fewer games, smaller spreads, and a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line.
We’re right in the middle so far, going 4-4 yesterday and sitting at 21-19 through the first three days. Still not where we want to be, but today is a chance to get a streak going and build some momentum heading into the second weekend.
We’re leaning toward the chalk again today, but it’s been that kind of tournament with very few upsets, and it would not be surprising to see more games get out of hand rather than come down to the wire.
Let’s get into it and take a look at every ATS play on the board.
No.7 Miami (FL) v. No.2 Purdue (-7.5)
These two teams looked very different in St. Louis late Friday night, although the level of competition played a role. Purdue faced Queens University, while Miami drew a much tougher matchup against Missouri. Still, Purdue looked calm and composed throughout, while Miami, despite handling its business, looked more inconsistent.
The Boilermakers were dominant in the first round, putting up 104 points while shooting 58 percent from three. Guard Braden Smith became the NCAA’s all-time assists leader within the first few minutes and finished with 26 points and eight assists. Head coach Matt Painter has also been one of the most reliable tournament coaches, owning a 23-7 record against the spread in opening weekend games.
Miami, meanwhile, has made a nice turnaround from last season’s 7-24 finish. The hiring of former Duke assistant Jai Lucas, along with key transfers Malik Reneau and Tre Donaldson, both averaging over 16 points per game, has reshaped the roster. The Hurricanes can compete, but Purdue is the more complete team, with the edge in both experience and overall talent.
My pick: Purdue -7.5
No.7 Kentucky v. No.2 Iowa State (-4.5)
Iowa State rolled in the first round, but took a significant hit when second-team All-American Joshua Jefferson suffered an ankle injury. It is unlikely he returns for this matchup, which puts more on the shoulders of Milan Momcilovic and Killyan Toure, both of whom stepped up in the win over Tennessee State.
Kentucky enters as one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country, but Iowa State’s defense, particularly on the perimeter, is equipped to challenge that. The Wildcats are also coming off an emotional overtime win over Santa Clara, where Otega Oweh delivered the game-winner, and that kind of effort can be difficult to replicate on a quick turnaround.
Iowa State may not be at full strength, but it remains a well-rounded team with the depth and structure to win this game while still carrying legitimate Final Four upside.
My pick: Iowa State -4.5
No.5 St. John’s (-3.5) v. No.4 Kansas
This sets up as one of the best matchups of the weekend, with a classic coaching battle between Bill Self and Rick Pitino. St. John’s enters red hot, winning 20 of its last 21 games, including two wins over No. 2 seed UConn.
What stands out here is that St. John’s is favored despite being the lower seed, a sign of how much respect this run has earned. The Red Storm bring a top-10 defense into the matchup, and Zuby Ejiofor is a key name to watch. The former Kansas forward could be in line for a strong performance against his old team.
Kansas, meanwhile, is coming off a less convincing win than the final score suggests. The Jayhawks led by as many as 26 against Cal Baptist but saw that lead shrink to six late. Darryn Peterson looked fully healthy with a 28-point performance and remains the focal point offensively.
This should be a tight, competitive game, but I’m riding St. John’s hot hand.
My pick: St. John’s -3.5
No.6 Tennessee (-1.5) v. No.3 Virginia
I’m not particularly impressed with Virginia coming out of the first round. One game doesn’t define a team, but there are still reasons for concern, especially with first-year head coach Ryan Odom leading the group.
Tennessee, on the other hand, was sharp. The Volunteers shot 45 percent from three in their opener and held Miami (OH), one of the better three-point shooting teams in the country, to just 24 percent. They also bring a physical edge, ranking third nationally in rebounds per game at 42.6 and leading the country in offensive rebound percentage at 44.6.
One key matchup to watch is Tennessee’s pick-and-pop efficiency. The Volunteers generate 1.2 points per possession in those situations, while Virginia has struggled to defend it, allowing 1.07 points per possession. That’s a clear area where Tennessee can create consistent offense.
Virginia is 30-2 when it allows 24 or fewer defensive rebounds, but 0-3 when it gives up more. Given Tennessee’s dominance on the glass, that trend could very well continue.
My pick: Tennessee -1.5
No.9 Iowa v. No.1 Florida (-10.5)
Iowa had an impressive first-round showing against Clemson, but this feels like the spot where its strong first season under Ben McCollum comes to an end. Florida, meanwhile, made a statement in its opener, scoring 114 points in a program-record performance. That SEC Tournament loss to Vanderbilt appears to have served as a wake-up call.
Florida’s depth and consistency stand out here, especially at this stage of the season. These teams play very different styles, Florida prefers to push the ball, while Iowa operates with one of the slowest tempos in the country. Iowa will try to control the game through pace, but Florida’s guard play, led by Xaivian Lee and Boogie Fland, should make that difficult.
Florida is the more talented team, and while I expect a close game at halftime, the Gators should pull away comfortably late.
My pick: Florida -10.5
No.9 Utah State v. No.1 Arizona (-11.5)
Utah State is better than most realize, but Arizona is one of the best teams in the country and should be too much here. The Aggies struggle defending the three, ranking 214th nationally and allowing opponents to shoot 34.4 percent from beyond the arc. That could be a major issue against an Arizona team that shot 46 percent from three in its opening-round win over LIU.
The Wildcat defense is just as impressive, ranking second nationally in opponent effective field goal percentage. Utah State’s 13 percent shooting from three in the first round is also a concern, especially against a defense that limits clean looks.
Arizona should be in control here and finally put those early tournament exits behind it.
My pick: Arizona -11.5
No.7 UCLA v. No.2 UConn (-4.5)
Two proud programs meet with a combined 17 national championships between them. UCLA handled its first-round matchup against UCF with ease, while UConn had a brief scare against Furman.
The Huskies were without starting point guard Silas Demary Jr. and sixth man Jaylin Stewart, both of whom remain questionable for Sunday. Their absence showed, as UConn shot just 5-for-25 from three, especially notable given both players shoot at least 35 percent from beyond the arc. UCLA is dealing with its own injury concern, as big man Tyler Bilodeau is also questionable.
Both teams are comfortable in the half court, ranking among the top 50 nationally in assist rate. Despite an inconsistent season, UCLA remains a disciplined team with strong ball control and reliable perimeter shooting.
UConn may not look like a true title contender, but with this game close to home and the crowd behind it, the Huskies should take care of business.
My pick: UConn -4.5
No.5 Texas Tech v. No.4 Alabama (+1.5)
This matchup comes down to which side dictates the game, Alabama’s offense or Texas Tech’s defense. Both teams are well-rounded, but each leans heavily on its strength.
Alabama will again be without starting guard Aden Holloway, but that did not slow its offense in the first round, thanks to Labaron Philon Jr.’s 29-point performance. Texas Tech has the defensive structure to slow Alabama’s transition game and force it into the half court, though containing Philon remains a challenge.
On the other end, Texas Tech runs one of the most efficient drive-and-kick offenses in the country, consistently generating open looks and shooting 39.7 percent from three, third nationally. Even without JT Toppin, the Red Raiders have the offensive balance to capitalize.
Texas Tech should be able to control the tempo and create cleaner looks in this matchup, which should be enough to send it to the Sweet Sixteen.
My Pick: Texas Tech +1.5
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