The Sweet Sixteen wrapped up, and the Elite Eight is set. Most of the teams here were expected to be in this spot, but there are a few surprises looking to shake up the Final Four. We’re 24-20 for the tournament, so let’s look to build on that with the best ATS plays for the Elite Eight.
No.9 Iowa v. No.3 Illinois (-7.5)
We get another strong Big Ten tilt in the tournament, with Iowa looking to continue its underdog run against Illinois. The Hawkeyes have been comfortable in that role, relying on perimeter shooting and timely scoring runs to stay competitive.
And they have been doing it in different ways. In the Round of 32, star guard Bennett Stirtz went 0-for-9 from deep, but the rest of the team stepped up and shot 46% from beyond the arc. Against Florida, Alvaro Folgueiras, a 30% three-point shooter on the season, delivered the biggest moment of their season with a corner three to give Iowa the lead in the final seconds.
Iowa has shown it can win close contests, even when it’s pushed out of its preferred slower tempo.
That said, this is a difficult matchup. Illinois is coming off a win over Houston on its home floor, beating one of the best defensive teams in the country at its own game. The Illini outrebounded the Cougars by nearly 10 and held them to 55 points on 34% shooting.
Even with a 12-for-21 performance from the free-throw line, Illinois was in control throughout.
The Illini’s size presents problems for Iowa’s slower style, particularly on the glass, where Brad Underwood’s squad ranks seventh nationally in rebounds per game. They also have a clear edge in the paint on both ends.
Illinois already beat Iowa once this season, and this sets up similarly. A return to the Final Four for the first time since 2005 is well within reach.
Pick: Illinois -7.5
No.2 Purdue v. No.1 Arizona (-6.5)
Arizona is back in the Elite Eight for the first time in a decade after years of falling short. The Wildcats will face Purdue, a preseason favorite that hit some bumps during the regular season but still has the talent and experience to win it all.
Arizona has a strong case as the most dominant team remaining. It carries an average scoring margin of +22.3 and takes 73.6% of its shots from two-point range, consistently putting pressure on opponents inside. In the Sweet Sixteen, Arizona overwhelmed Arkansas with 60 points in the paint and 30 at the free-throw line, attempting just eight threes and still winning by 21.
This spot sets up well for the Wildcats. Purdue has struggled to defend the interior, ranking 250th nationally in opponent two-point percentage. That issue showed up late against Texas, when Oscar Cluff committed a costly foul on a layup in the final moments, allowing the Longhorns to pull even before Trey Kaufman-Renn bailed Purdue out.
Purdue survived, but it wasn’t convincing. The Boilermakers went 4-for-20 from three, with Fletcher Loyer accounting for all four makes, and they allowed Texas to shoot 44% from beyond the arc.
There’s no question Purdue has the experience, Kaufman-Renn, Loyer, and Braden Smith have all played more than 145 games, including 12 in the NCAA tournament. But this feels like a difficult matchup. Arizona’s interior pressure and overall efficiency should be enough to push it through to the Final Four.
Pick: Arizona -6.5
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