Well, we went 2-0 with our Saturday picks and now sit at 26-20 for the tournament. Let’s see if we can close out the Elite Eight with another strong showing.
Sunday gives us two very different paths to the Final Four, but both hinge on the same question: who can control the game on their terms. Michigan and Tennessee bring a clash of efficiency versus physicality, while Duke and UConn deliver the blue-blood matchup everyone expected, with talent, coaching, and experience all on display. Two games, two styles, and very little margin for error.
No. 6 Tennessee v. No. 1 Michigan (-7.5)
The Midwest Regional centers on a clash between Michigan and Tennessee, defined by contrasting strengths. Tennessee continues to do what it always does, coming off an upset win over No. 2 Iowa State where it dominated the glass, 43-22. That edge on the boards is no accident. The Volunteers lead the nation in offensive rebounds, and that advantage consistently shows up in March.
They’re also strong defensively, ranking top-50 in points allowed and top-15 in opponent three-point percentage, holding teams to just 30% from deep. Tennessee can absolutely disrupt Michigan, but slowing them down is different from stopping them.
We saw what Michigan’s defense did to Alabama in the Sweet 16, protecting the rim and forcing difficult perimeter looks all night. That becomes even more relevant here, given Tennessee’s offensive limitations. The Volunteers rank just 149th nationally in two-point percentage and 175th from three, which puts a ceiling on how efficient they can be. In some ways, those missed shots contribute to their rebounding numbers.
Michigan presents the opposite profile. The Wolverines are one of the most efficient offenses in the country, ranking second nationally in two-point percentage and 29th from three. If they’re getting clean looks, they’re going to convert.
The key for Michigan is ball security. They rank 205th nationally in turnovers at 11.7 per game, but they’ve cleaned that up in the tournament, not committing more than 10 in any game. That’s been a major factor in their run, and if it continues, they should be in a strong position here.
Pick: Michigan -7.5
No. 2 UConn v. No. 1 Duke (-5.5)
This region always felt like it would come down to a heavyweight spot, and now we get exactly that. Duke and Connecticut, two blue bloods, with a trip to the Final Four on the line.
Both teams were tested in the Sweet 16. Duke had to rally from a double-digit deficit against St. John’s, fueled by Caleb Foster’s 11 second-half points after returning quickly from his broken foot. The Huskies, meanwhile, dictated much of its game but allowed Michigan State to hang around late, running much of the offense through Tarris Reed Jr. and Alex Karaban.
That approach will be tested here. UConn will again run through Reed and Karaban, but Duke has the size and defensive structure to make life difficult. This sets up as a bruising game, with both teams shooting over 57% from two and ranking among the most efficient defenses in the country, Duke second nationally, Connecticut ninth.
Dan Hurley’s track record is hard to ignore. He’s 16-3 against the spread in the tournament with UConn, though many of those covers came as a favorite. This is a different spot, with his squad now stepping in as underdogs.
This should be a tight game, but Duke has the edge. With Foster back in the lineup and enough depth to avoid leaning too heavily on Cam Boozer, the Blue Devils are set to return to the Final Four.
Pick: Duke -5.5
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