After two weeks of tournament basketball at its best, we’re down to the final weekend, with just four teams left chasing a national title. One is searching for its first ever, two are trying to capture a second after decades-long droughts, and one is looking to add a seventh in the past 27 years.
So far, the picks have held up well, sitting at 27–21 through the tournament, and now it comes down to the biggest stage.
Let’s dive into these matchups and find the best angles for the Final Four.
No.3 Illinois (-1.5) v. No.2 UConn
This Illinois offense has been nothing short of dominant all year, but the biggest factor in their postseason run has been on the defensive end. They’ve allowed just one opponent so far in this tournament to score over 60 points, as Penn reached 70 but still lost by 35. Their height and length create a near-unfair advantage, holding tournament opponents under 48% from two-point range. That defensive presence was on full display in the Elite Eight, when Illinois held Iowa to just seven made twos.
On the other side, UConn has shown as much resilience as any team left in the field, erasing a 19-point first-half deficit against No. 1 overall seed Duke. Tarris Reed Jr. hasn’t single-handedly carried them, but he’s been the driving force behind their run, averaging 21.8 points on 60% shooting, along with 13.5 rebounds and 2.5 blocks in the tournament.
Illinois’ size presents a different level of challenge, but Reed’s production hasn’t been matchup-dependent, and that’s unlikely to change here. If UConn is going to win, though, they’ll need more from Solo Ball. He’s been ice cold throughout the tournament, averaging just over seven points per game after putting up 13 per game during the season as the Huskies’ third-leading scorer.
I would have said Illinois relies too heavily on the three, making them vulnerable, but their Elite Eight performance challenges that idea. They went just 3-for-17 from deep and still handled Iowa comfortably, scoring roughly 1.30 points per possession. That suggests they can win in multiple ways, even when the shots aren’t falling.
Pick: Illinois -1.5
No.1 Michigan (-1.5) v. No.1 Arizona
No disrespect to Illinois or UConn, but this is the game everyone has been waiting for. Both teams have cruised through most of March, but now they finally face a true heavyweight matchup.
I don’t care that Tennessee was a six seed, Michigan winning by 33 in the Elite Eight is still eye-opening. When Michigan gets rolling, they’re incredibly difficult to slow down, as shown by their 33–10 run to close the first half in that game.
If the Wolverines are going to win, it starts with their perimeter shooting. In two of their three losses this season, they shot below 29% from deep, and that’s been the clearest indicator of when their offense stalls.
Defensively, Dusty May’s squad has been dominant. Calling them elite almost undersells it, with at least eight blocks in every tournament game. But this is a different kind of test with Arizona’s interior presence.
The Wildcats are physical and productive as it gets in the paint, ranking second nationally at over 49 points per game inside. They showed exactly what that looks like last weekend, putting up 60 paint points against Arkansas in the Sweet Sixteen and another 40 against Purdue in the Elite Eight.
The trade-off is on the perimeter. Arizona ranks near the bottom nationally in both three-point attempts and makes, averaging fewer than six made threes per game.
That contrast is where this game will be decided. Arizona can control stretches inside, but if Michigan builds a lead, it’s hard to see the Wildcats having the shooting to chase it down, especially against Michigan’s size and rim protection.
Pick: Michigan -1.5
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