Placing a futures bet on an MLB player doesn’t have to mean targeting the award markets. Sportsbooks offer far more flexibility, with home run and strikeout totals, milestone bets like 30-plus homers, and a range of other statistical categories.
There’s no need to be restricted to MVP, Cy Young, or Rookie of the Year. The edge comes from digging into underlying metrics and identifying value, whether that’s in batting average, hits, stolen bases, or other production-based markets.
So let’s take a look at a few of my favorites.
Salvador Perez Over .252 Batting Average (-110)
Perez had cleared this line in five straight seasons before falling to a .236 average in 2025.
That drop looks more like bad luck than decline. Perez posted a .269 expected batting average, one of the largest gaps in the league, while also recording the second-highest barrel rate of his career and his best hard-hit rate since 2022.
There are few signs of meaningful regression at the plate. The profile still supports a return to a batting average north of .252.
Jonathan Aranda Over .260 Batting Average (-110)
Aranda was one of the best contact hitters in the majors last season, ranking in the 97th percentile in xBA and the 96th percentile in hard-hit rate.
This wasn’t driven by batted-ball luck. Aranda consistently made strong contact and did damage on balls he pulled in the air.
Getting this line on a player coming off a .316 average is simply too good to pass up.
Bryce Harper Under .274 Batting Average (-110)
Harper posted an xBA of .264 in 2024 and .268 in 2025, finishing with a .261 average last season, his lowest mark since 2019.
The concern for Philadelphia is a slight decline in bat speed since 2023. There are early signs of aging, which could limit his ability to consistently hit in the high .200s.
With his plate discipline and power, Harper can still be a near-elite hitter, but he may no longer be the MVP-level presence he once was.
Jac Caglianone to Hit 30+ Homers (+400)
Kauffman Stadium has shifted from one of the toughest parks for home runs to a place where sluggers like Caglianone can thrive.
After posting eye-popping exit velocities in the minors, Caglianone ran into poor luck at the plate in his initial major league sample. The underlying metrics still stand out, with elite bat speed, raw power, and a 12% barrel rate.
An 84.7% zone contact rate and a 22.4% strikeout rate are also encouraging indicators. Don’t be surprised if Caglianone delivers a breakout similar to what Nick Kurtz produced in 2025.
Miguel Vargas to Hit 20+ Homers (-115)
Vargas hit 16 home runs last season in just 569 plate appearances, while continuing to pull the ball in the air at a roughly 23% clip, building on the progress he showed in 2024.
His swing decisions remain a strength, leading to low strikeout and whiff rates. Vargas consistently puts himself in good counts and ranked in the 72nd percentile in launch angle sweet spot.
A 20-homer season is well within reach, especially if he’s willing to trade a slight uptick in strikeouts for more power.
James Wood to Hit 40+ Homers (+600)
Wood hit 31 home runs last season despite a low launch angle. He ranked 22nd in groundball rate, and only 19 hitters pulled the ball in the air less frequently.
The underlying tools point to even more power. Wood graded in the 95th percentile in bat speed and the 98th percentile in hard-hit rate, while maintaining a strong walk rate that reflects solid plate discipline.
If he begins to elevate the ball more consistently, a jump into the 40, or even 50, home run range is within reach.
Cole Ragans Under 3.37 ERA (-110)
Ragans has posted a 3.32 ERA since joining the Royals, though some batted-ball misfortune pushed that number to 4.67 over 13 starts last season.
The underlying metrics tell a clearer story. Ragans recorded a 2.67 xERA in 2025, following marks of 3.25 in 2024 and 3.33 in 2023. By any measure, he profiles as one of the top pitchers in the American League.
If those indicators hold, a sub-2.50 ERA season is well within reach in 2026.
Eury Pérez Under 3.67 ERA (-110)
Returning from injury, Pérez posted a 3.23 xERA across 20 starts in 2026. His fastball velocity was encouraging, and his slider was nearly unhittable, generating a 41% whiff rate.
Health remains the primary variable. With Ryan Weathers and Edward Cabrera already traded, and Sandy Alcantara a potential departure, Pérez is positioned to emerge as the Marlins’ long-term ace.
Cade Horton Over 4.04 ERA (-110)
Ignore Horton’s low ERA as a rookie. His slider was his only above-average pitch, and a 101 Location+ doesn’t indicate the command needed to compensate.
The 3.88 xERA offers a more accurate reflection. With a full look at him, hitters should be better prepared, especially given how often his fastball was squared up.
Horton profiles more as a mid-rotation arm, and an ERA in the mid-4.00s would not be surprising.
Logan Webb 200+ Strikeouts (+190)
Webb led the National League in strikeouts in 2025. His fastball jumped from 92 to 109 Stuff+, his sinker remains a weapon, and he complements it with a solid slider and changeup.
After recording 224 strikeouts last season and leading the NL in innings in each of the past three years, this line presents strong value.
Volume alone puts him in position to clear 200 strikeouts again.
Nolan McLean 150+ Strikeouts (+165)
McLean struck out 10.7 batters per nine innings in the majors last season. If he reaches his projected 145 innings in 2026, that pace would put him comfortably past 150 strikeouts.
The arsenal supports it, a power fastball and sinker, backed by a curveball and changeup. While the Mets will likely manage his workload as a rookie, he’s still expected to play a significant role in the rotation.
Dylan Cease 220+ Strikeouts (+110)
Cease has recorded 220-plus strikeouts in three of the past five seasons, with at least 214 in each of those years, and he led the majors in strikeouts per nine innings in 2025.
His inconsistency hasn’t been driven by declining stuff. The slider and changeup remain strong weapons, and his fastball still has plenty of life.
Like Webb, Cease’s durability is a key factor in this wager. He’s been one of the most reliable arms in the game in recent seasons.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings.
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