There have been twists and turns in both Rookie of the Year races.
Preseason National League favorite Konnor Griffin has been sidelined. Royals rookie Carter Jansen has underwhelmed at the dish with an 80 wRC+. After struggling mightily in the first few weeks, Carson Benge has gotten red-hot offensively to vault himself into the NL mix.
There have been surprise performers in both leagues, but it's a pair of top prospects that lead the way as of mid-June.
AL
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Kevin McGonigle
Leading all rookies in fWAR, McGonigle doesn't have the very best offensive numbers, but his overall value is sufficient to ensure he sits atop these rankings. In what has been a difficult year for the Tigers, McGonigle has showcased his all-around skillset with elite bat-to-ball skills and an 85th percentile xwOBA.
There's a long way to go. McGonigle could yet relinquish the lead given how many rookies are impressing in the American League, but there's no question he's the best of the bunch so far.
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Munetaka Murakami
He's been on the injured list for a couple of weeks, but the best rookie hitter in the sport deserves a top two berth. Murakami has 20 homers to his name already and hasn't looked like slowing down, with an almost identical OPS in April and May.
This level of production has to maintain if the White Sox slugger is to win ROY. A lack of defensive and baserunning value is always going to put a ceiling on his WAR, so he needs to be clearly the best hitter.
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Payton Tolle
Tolle is leading rookie pitchers in fWAR. He's got a 2.47 xERA and an 18.6% K-BB rate. The whiff numbers are a little lower than would be ideal, but Tolle is still having a phenomenal season.
There haven't been many concerns with the southpaw through nine starts. We still need to see how he’ll fare over a bigger sample, but he's been pitching like an ace for a couple of months.
Honorable mentions: Parker Messick, Trey Yesavage, Connor Prielipp, Tristan Peters, Brandon Valenzuela, Samuel Basallo.
NL
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JJ Wetherholt
Wetherholt has double the fWAR of any other National League rookie. St. Louis' phenom is running away with the NL Rookie of the Year award as it stands, and that's while he's only got a 117 wRC+.
The 2024 first-round pick has remained spectacular defensively. An OPS below .650 since the start of May is a slight cause for concern, though his xwOBA suggests he's been a bit unlucky so far.
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Carson Benge
A season following the opposite pattern to Wetherholt, Benge has an .862 OPS over his last 35 games. The overall numbers are uninspiring at the moment, but that will quickly change if Benge keeps hitting at this level.
Once he got to grips with big-league pitching, Benge has been highly impressive. His rolling xwOBA is among the best in the majors. The defense isn't as good as Wetherholt's, but 10 stolen bases already shows Benge has 30-30 upside this year.
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Sal Stewart
Even with a better wRC+ than Wetherholt, 10 stolen bases, and 13 homers, Stewart has been worth less fWAR than Wetherholt by a sizeable margin. He's also been a minus on the defensive side of the ball and has below average speed.
A red-hot start has carried Stewart's numbers. He's only got a .703 OPS since the start of May and he's dropped to the 47th percentile in hard-hit rate.
Honorable mentions: Nolan McLean, Bryce Eldridge, Logan Henderson, Didier Fuentes.
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