Mock NBA Expansion Draft: Building Seattle and Las Vegas From Scratch

We decided to run a mock NBA expansion draft. With the increasing likelihood of two new NBA teams arriving sometime in the near future, we wanted to see what the process could actually look like. Each of us assumed control of one of the expansion franchises and operated as GM for the exercise. Brad took over the team in Seattle, while Emile ran the team in Las Vegas.

Before getting into the selections themselves, here’s a quick explanation of how we handled the expansion rules.

Rules

• We held a coin toss between the two of us. The winner could choose either the earlier of the 5th and 6th picks in the NBA Draft, or the first pick in the expansion draft.

• The rules surrounding where expansion teams pick have varied over the years, but the common assumption is that they receive the first non-lottery-winner selections. Under the current lottery structure, that would begin at No. 5.

• We still had to account for the NBA salary floor, which sits around $150 million. That meant we couldn’t simply build a roster entirely out of rookie-scale contracts and developmental players.

• The expansion draft occurred before free agency, meaning both teams would still have access to unrestricted free agents afterward.

• Existing teams could protect up to eight players, and only one player from each franchise could be selected.

• The protected-player decisions were generated through NBA 2K26.

• The simulation began immediately after the draft lottery, meaning players like Austin Reaves and Jalen Duren were already free agents.

Pre-Draft Philosophies

Emile

I’m not particularly concerned with how this team performs in Year 1. I’m perfectly comfortable absorbing ugly contracts if it helps us reach the salary floor while stockpiling younger players and future assets. My focus is on flexibility long term, not squeezing out 34 wins immediately.

Vegas should eventually be a premier free-agent destination, so I also want to avoid getting trapped by long-term money or player options that could clog the books down the road. The reality is this team probably isn’t competing right away regardless of whether I land the first overall pick and Ajay Mitchell, so the priority becomes accumulating as many swings at upside as possible.

That means younger players, extra draft capital, and tradeable contracts. I fully expect this team to be rough during its first season, but that’s fine. Ideally, the foundation comes from a pair of future top-five picks, plus whatever additional assets we can generate through trades.

That said, this is still Las Vegas. We aren’t going to avoid flashy free-agent swings altogether. Like Brad, I’m absolutely throwing an absurd offer sheet at Jalen Duren the second the rules allow it, and maybe slightly before then if Adam Silver isn’t paying attention.

Brad

Because my roster starts with clean books and still needs to reach the salary floor fairly quickly, I’m willing to take on some expensive contracts. Ideally, I’d rather deal with bloated annual salaries than massive long-term commitments, but there are certain players where the years become easier to stomach if they can realistically help the franchise later on.

For example, I understand why most teams would see Immanuel Quickley’s contract and recoil, but because Seattle isn’t trying to contend immediately, I’d be more open to absorbing that kind of deal if I believed the player still had meaningful upside.

Regardless of the coin toss, my main priority is finding big men. The center pool in this expansion draft is absolutely brutal. If I win the toss, I’m taking the first expansion selection over the No. 5 pick in the NBA Draft without hesitation. In a real-world scenario, that would mean grabbing Ajay Mitchell, then potentially trying to trade down from No. 6 later in the draft to target someone like Aday Mara.

If I lose the coin toss and Emile takes Mitchell first, I’d probably stay at No. 5 and take one of the guards available there.

No matter what happens, though, my offseason revolves around trying to pry Jalen Duren away from Detroit with the grossest offer sheet imaginable. All-NBA caliber centers almost never become available for free. I doubt Seattle makes the playoffs immediately, but with the flattened lottery odds, I also don’t feel obligated to fully tank. I’d rather bring in legitimate NBA players, then look for trade opportunities later.

Expansion Draft Results

Seattle: #1 Ajay Mitchell

Ajay Mitchell was easily the crown jewel of the expansion draft. Once I won the coin toss, passing on the No. 5 pick became a pretty simple decision because I viewed Mitchell as clearly better than the rest of the available pool.

I understand why the video game valued him modestly. He only has two years left before unrestricted free agency, and players in his archetype don’t always explode immediately. Still, Mitchell feels like one of the better candidates in the league for a Jalen Brunson-style leap if handed real offensive responsibility and consistent on-ball reps.

Vegas: #2 Immanuel Quickley

Some picks really didn’t need extensive explanations. A few were straightforward upside bets on younger players. Others were made simply because the center position became such a wasteland that I had to draft functional big men before they disappeared entirely.

Quickley, though, deserves a little more context because he slightly contradicted my original strategy.

Contract aside, I still think he’s a legitimately good player. If I was going to absorb one of the expensive deals available in this pool, I wanted it to be attached to someone young enough to still matter by the time this franchise becomes competitive.

Quickley also gives Vegas someone fans might actually pay to watch instead of staying inside the Bellagio sportsbook all night. Yes, the contract is rough. Three years at over $32 million annually for a non-star guard is not ideal. But in this specific scenario, the negative value almost becomes useful because we need payroll anyway and ownership is presumably loaded.

Vegas: #3 GG Jackson II

He’s still only 21 years old.

That alone made him difficult to pass up. Jackson is somehow already entering his fourth NBA season despite being younger than several incoming rookies. There’s still a ton of room for growth offensively, particularly as a self-creator.

The defensive consistency remains shaky, and I’m not fully convinced he’ll ever become a true foundational piece. Still, at this point in the draft, betting on youth, athleticism, and scoring flashes felt worthwhile. I also knew Brad was almost certainly taking him on the turn if I passed here.

Seattle: #4 Wendell Carter Jr.

Wendell Carter Jr. probably wasn’t the fourth-best overall player available, but the center market in this draft became so bleak that I felt cornered into taking him.

More importantly, his contract doesn’t interfere with Seattle’s larger plans. One year at roughly $18 million is manageable, especially for a team preparing to throw a monster offer sheet at Jalen Duren.

Seattle: #5 Dejounte Murray

I’ve never been a massive Dejounte Murray fan.

Unfortunately for me, Emile also isn’t a massive fan, which meant there was a decent chance he would still be sitting there for me anyway.

The logic here was mostly financial. Seattle needed to add real salary quickly, and Murray’s expiring deal gave me a pathway to do that while still keeping future flexibility intact. At worst, he’s still a capable NBA guard on a contract that could become valuable near the trade deadline.

The ideal outcome is probably something similar to the old Al Horford-Danny Green salary swap between Oklahoma City and Philadelphia, where a contender talks itself into Murray as a playoff upgrade and attaches future draft compensation to make the money work.

Vegas: #6 Donte DiVincenzo

This pick shared some similarities with the Quickley selection, just with far less long-term risk attached.

DiVincenzo gives Vegas additional salary while still being a genuinely nice rotation player. He can handle the ball, defend, shoot, and fit into basically any playoff environment. Players like that always end up carrying trade value eventually.

Part of me actually wishes I had taken him first and then pivoted toward a center here, but once the board unfolded the way it did, I felt fine doubling down on perimeter talent.

Vegas: #7 Sam Hauser

Hauser felt like one of the cleaner value picks in the draft.

He’s an elite shooter on a contract that remains tradable both in terms of money and years. Even if things completely fall apart, there will always be contenders searching for movement shooting at the deadline.

The off-ball spacing alone probably gives him more utility than a decent chunk of the players selected ahead of him.

Seattle: #8 Jay Huff

Once Emile took Hauser, I started panicking about the possibility of entering the season trapped in the Drew Eubanks sweepstakes.

That fear basically pushed me directly into Jay Huff.

I truly think Huff can survive as an NBA rotation center, and considering how ugly the remaining big-man options became, securing two playable centers early gave me some peace of mind.

Vegas: #10 Paul Reed

I needed a center so badly that Reed almost became the pick by default.

More than anything, I just wanted somebody capable of surviving NBA minutes. Once you got past the first handful of bigs in this pool, things became deeply unsettling very quickly.

Some advanced metrics have always loved Reed, so maybe there’s still something to unlock there. He also comes with the added benefit of having one of the better nicknames in basketball. “BBall Paul” absolutely feels like somebody Vegas fans would irrationally convince themselves is a future cult hero.

Seattle: #13 Tidjane Salaün

Had Emile not taken Paul Reed earlier, I probably would have selected him here despite already drafting multiple centers. That’s part of what pushed me toward Salaün.

The other factor was spite.

My co-writer spent so much time talking about Salaün before the 2024 draft that I basically assumed he still wanted him now. At that point, stealing him became funny enough to justify the selection on its own.

Beyond that, Salaün was also one of the youngest players available by a pretty significant margin, which makes him a worthwhile developmental swing.

Seattle: #24 Marcus Smart

Toward the end of the draft, this became less about upside and more about identifying players who still looked capable of contributing real NBA minutes.

That’s how I landed on Marcus Smart.

On paper, taking Smart and Buddy Hield late probably sounds strange given how heavily I emphasized youth earlier. But once the board deteriorated, I found myself choosing between overpaid veterans, ugly player options, and players who may not belong in NBA rotations at all.

Smart still feels useful. On an expiring deal worth roughly $5 million, I could absolutely see a contender convincing itself to send out a protected first-rounder for playoff toughness and defensive depth.

Vegas: #26 Royce O'Neale

By this stage of the draft, we were basically playing a game of chicken with contracts neither of us wanted to touch.

O’Neale ended up being one of the final veterans left whose deal didn’t completely terrify me. Two years at around $10 million annually is reasonable enough, especially for someone who can still function inside a playoff rotation.

There’s also value in having adults on the roster. Expansion teams can’t survive entirely on prospects and random reclamation projects.

Vegas: #27 Dennis Schröder

Schröder ultimately came down to practicality.

The contract only runs two more seasons, the money isn’t outrageous, and there’s no player option attached. More importantly, contenders seem magnetically drawn toward trading for Dennis Schröder every February regardless of circumstance.

If I had to walk down the Strip and place actual money on one outcome from this draft, it would probably be Schröder getting moved by the deadline.

I don’t necessarily love the pick, but the alternative was Patrick Williams, and that felt somehow even more depressing.

Seattle: #28 Buddy Hield

By the final few rounds, we were both desperately trying to avoid getting stuck with contracts loaded with player options and diminishing returns.

Unfortunately, I lost that game.

I genuinely struggle to envision Buddy Hield staying on this roster very long. If this happened in real life, Seattle would probably explore a buyout almost immediately.

Final Word

So those were the results of our mock NBA expansion draft.

Seattle walked away prioritizing playable veterans, financial flexibility, and the hope of building a respectable roster quickly without completely sacrificing long-term upside. Vegas leaned harder into youth, tradeable contracts, and future asset accumulation, even if it means enduring a rough first season out of the gate.

Now comes the harder part.

Both franchises still have free agency, the NBA Draft, and a mountain of roster decisions ahead. Jalen Duren looms as the obvious dream target for both teams, while players like Austin Reaves could completely reshape the direction of either roster depending on how aggressively their current teams respond.

Expansion teams rarely become contenders overnight. But with cap space, multiple avenues to improve, and no pressure to rush the process, both Seattle and Vegas would enter the league with something a lot of stuck NBA franchises desperately want: a coherent plan.

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