The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Talladega Speedway this weekend for the Jack Link’s 500, marking the 110th Cup Series race at one of the sport’s most iconic and unpredictable tracks.
Tyler Reddick is coming off his fifth win of the season, while Denny Hamlin led nearly half the laps in Kansas. Recent results matter, but Talladega tends to even things out. Most races here come down to being in the right spot late and avoiding trouble.
What Makes Talladega Different
Talladega is the largest and fastest oval in NASCAR, with 33 degrees of banking that allows packs to run three and four-wide. That creates both volatility and opportunity.
The “Big One,” a multi-car wreck that can wipe out a large portion of the field, is always in play. That alone levels the field more than most races. Longshots stay live, and favorites carry more risk than usual.
Here’s how the board looks this weekend, from the favorites to a few longer shots worth considering.
The Favorites
Joey Logano
Logano, the 36-year-old driver of the No. 22 car from Middletown, Connecticut, enters this race as one of DraftKings’ favorites (+1000), driven largely by his history at Talladega.
A three-time Cup Series champion (2018, 2022, 2024) and three-time winner at this track (2015, 2016, 2018), Logano has long been one of the most reliable drivers in pack racing. His ability to position himself and survive the chaos has consistently kept him in contention here.
The concern is current form. He has yet to win this season and is coming off a 30th-place finish in Kansas, with a similar result at the Goodyear 400. He currently sits 14th in the Cup Series Power Rankings and has not recorded a top-five finish at Talladega since 2021.
He did cross the line fifth in this race last year, but a post-race disqualification erased the result, adding to the recent inconsistency at a track where he once dominated.
Logano’s track record makes him a clear contender, but between recent struggles and less consistent results at Talladega in recent years, there are real questions tied to his outlook this weekend.
Ryan Blaney
Ryan Blaney’s No. 12 car sits right alongside Logano as a co-favorite this weekend at +1000, and it’s not hard to see why.
The 2023 Cup Series champion already has a win this season and is sitting third in the standings. He’s also a three-time winner at Talladega, with six top-five finishes and eight top-10s here, so this place clearly suits him.
That said, Talladega rarely rewards consistency the way other tracks do. Even with that resume, his average finish here is just over 17, which tells you how quickly things can turn from one year to the next.
I also didn’t love what I saw last week where Blaney notched a less than impressive 24th-place finish in Kansas. Still, between his experience in pack racing and his overall results this season, Blaney feels like one of the more reliable options among the favorites.
The Wild Cards
Kyle Busch
Busch usually finds his way into the story at Talladega, whether that’s a good thing or not.
He’s a former Cup champ (2015, 2019) and a two-time winner here, so the location isn’t the issue. He knows how to handle this kind of racing and isn’t afraid to make a move when things tighten up late.
The ongoing feud with Denny Hamlin could be interesting to watch, especially at a track where one decision can change everything.
Busch certainly comes with risk, but he’s too experienced here to overlook. If he’s in it late, watch out.
Carson Hocevar
Hocevar is the type of longshot that actually makes sense at Talladega.
The 23-year-old out of Portage, Michigan, is in his third Cup Series season and still looking for his first win, but he’s already up to 12th in the standings and driving the No. 77 Chevrolet. He’s shown enough this year to at least be on the radar at this price.
At a place like this, where positioning matters as much as anything and races can flip quickly, guys like Hocevar stay in play longer than they would elsewhere.
At +2500, he’s not a safe option, but he’s a reasonable one to consider if you’re looking beyond the favorites.
The Parlay to Consider
Logano is the anchor here. His past record at Talladega makes a top-five finish very realistic, even with the recent struggles.
Briscoe is the most comfortable leg. He’s coming in with back-to-back top-five finishes and already has a Talladega win, so a top-10 result is well within reach.
Stenhouse is where this gets shaky. He’s sitting 30th in the standings with just one top-10 finish this season, so this leg carries most of the risk. If this misses, it’s probably here.
It’s a parlay that makes sense on paper, but you’re relying on Stenhouse to show up in a way he hasn’t much this year.
The Final Lap
Talladega doesn’t play like most tracks, but there are still a few things that hold up. Starting near the front matters, and those drivers tend to stay in the mix longer.
Blaney feels like the more stable option among the favorites based on form and history. Logano has the same kind of upside, but with more tied to recent results.
Beyond that, this race usually comes down to timing and positioning late. Staying up front helps, but avoiding trouble matters just as much.
Blaney is the safest option and my lean, while Busch and Hocevar are higher-risk plays who can still bring it home if they’re in the mix late.
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