The consensus surrounding the Los Angeles Regional is that it’s UCLA’s bracket to lose. Based on the pitching metrics, that assessment makes plenty of sense.
If they stumble, though, it will probably come down to the offense. UCLA is far from a weak hitting team. You don’t win 50 games without producing runs. Still, batting average isn’t one of their defining strengths. UCLA hit .294 overall this season, which ranked 57th nationally.
Where the Bruins separate themselves is in limiting traffic on the bases and keeping opponents off the scoreboard. UCLA posted a 3.31 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP, ranking second and third nationally in those categories. Opponents hit just .219 against the Bruins, who finished the season with a 463-214 run differential.
That creates a major contrast stylistically because the other three teams in the regional are far more comfortable playing in higher-scoring games. Virginia Tech, Cal Poly and Saint Mary’s all surrendered at least 300 runs this year, with the Hokies allowing 381.
If UCLA’s lineup simply holds up its end of the bargain, this squad should advance out of their own regional.
UCLA’s Strengths and Weaknesses
The Bruins’ biggest advantage is the sheer volume of quality arms available. UCLA has six pitchers, including starter Wylan Moss, who held opponents below a .200 batting average. Easton Hawk recorded 14 saves with a 1.41 ERA, and three UCLA relievers finished with a WHIP under 1.00. Carrying a lead into the later innings typically means lights out.
The bigger concern lies with the rotation. UCLA is without ace Logan Reddeman, who had been serving as the Friday starter before being shut down April 17 because of arm fatigue. He could return at some point, but there’s definitely uncertainty surrounding his status. Without him, UCLA has leaned on Moss, Landon Stump and Michael Barrett. That trio is solid, but the Bruins clearly trust their bullpen more than most remaining in the field.
Offensively, much of the damage comes from the top of the order. Potential No. 1 overall pick Roch Cholowsky blasted 21 home runs while hitting .329, and Will Gasparino added 19 homers while tying for the team lead with 62 RBIs. UCLA still piled up 463 runs despite not being an overwhelmingly dominant lineup top to bottom.
Part of that production stems from patience at the plate. The Bruins drew 292 walks this season and consistently forced pitchers into uncomfortable counts. A staff that pounds the zone, however, could create a different type of challenge for UCLA.
Virginia Tech’s Strengths and Weaknesses
There aren’t many soft spots throughout Virginia Tech’s lineup. Preventing runs, however, has been a completely different story.
Over their final seven games, the Hokies allowed at least nine runs five times. They also scored eight or more runs in four of those contests.
That dynamic makes the opener against Cal Poly especially fascinating. Virginia Tech is capable of piecing together offense in multiple ways, as Pete Daniel was the only regular hitter with fewer than 25 RBIs. The Hokies also generate offense more through consistent contact than overwhelming power, with Ethan Ball standing as the lone player to surpass 10 home runs.
The issue is that this regional may not suit that style very well. Virginia Tech simply doesn’t have the mound depth to match UCLA or even Cal Poly. Brett Renfrow missed the ACC tournament entirely, and the Hokies now face a difficult decision regarding when to deploy him.
The drop-off behind Renfrow became painfully obvious during the ACC tournament. Starter Ethan Grim failed to record an out while allowing four runs in a 17-10 win over Notre Dame. Virginia Tech cannot afford to spend entire afternoons trying to erase early deficits against this field.
Cal Poly’s Strengths and Weaknesses
If Cal Poly makes a run in this regional, it will likely come from the front end of the rotation. Carson Turnquist and Griffin Naess both delivered excellent performances during the Big West tournament and helped push the Mustangs into the conference final.
Still, the final series against UC San Diego highlighted one of the bigger concerns surrounding this roster. Cal Poly attempted to survive with a bullpen game, knowing the double-elimination format offered some margin for error. The Tritons responded by hammering the Mustangs 12-2, scoring more runs in one game than Cal Poly managed during the entire Big West tournament.
Consistent offense remains harder to trust. Baggett Stadium heavily favors pitchers, so the Mustangs rarely play in games loaded with home runs. Jackie Robinson Stadium offers friendlier dimensions, which could allow Ryan Tayman and Dylan Kordic to showcase more power than usual. Most likely, though, Cal Poly’s path forward depends on its starters working deep enough into games to avoid exposing the bullpen too early.
Saint Mary’s Strengths and Weaknesses
The Gaels can absolutely swing the bats. Saint Mary’s proved that during the West Coast Conference tournament, scoring at least seven runs in all five games. The pitching outlook becomes much shakier once you move beyond ace John Damozonio, who almost certainly draws the opening matchup against UCLA.
That assignment alone makes life difficult for Saint Mary’s because the Gaels essentially have to burn their best arm immediately. Damozonio posted a 2.71 ERA and has reached at least the sixth inning in every outing since February. That gives Saint Mary’s a legitimate shot to hang around in the opener.
Beyond him, the lineup probably has to carry the load. The Gaels hit .332 as a team, led by Diego Castellanos’ .384 average. Ian Armstrong also supplied both contact and power, finishing with a .358 batting average and 15 home runs. That said, Saint Mary’s generates offense more through sustained rallies than overwhelming slugging, and that may not be enough in this setting.
Best Bet
Backing UCLA at -800 to win the regional offers almost no betting value. The better approach is probably either avoiding the regional outright or targeting individual game lines instead.
If you are looking for a dark horse, Cal Poly stands out. The Mustangs’ rotation gives them a real edge against Virginia Tech, and strong starting pitching always creates upset potential in tournament formats.
Depth on the mound, though, usually decides regionals, and UCLA has more of it than anyone else here. Over the course of an entire weekend, the Bruins simply have too many pitching answers for this field.
If this was your kind of read, you’ll like what’s next. Get The Sandman Ticket, our free, weekly newsletter with picks, insights, and a little bit of everything we love about sports.
