The weekend brought some changes to the bubble. A few teams gave themselves a boost toward playing meaningful games in March, while others moved closer to missing the postseason entirely.
We’ll break things down by conference and group teams into four categories: safely in, right side of the bubble, wrong side of the bubble, and need a miracle. “Safely in” teams would make the field barring a complete collapse, while “need a miracle” teams are likely in only by winning their conference tournaments. Teams on the right side would likely make the field today, while teams on the wrong side are currently out.
Here’s where things stand right now.
ACC
Safely In: Duke, Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, NC State
Right Side of the Bubble: Clemson, SMU, Miami
Wrong Side of the Bubble: California, Virginia Tech
Need a Miracle: Boston College, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Florida State, Stanford, Wake Forest
NC State had the best week in the ACC, as the Wolfpack hammered North Carolina for a Quad 1 win. The Wolfpack should now feel pretty safe about their tournament hopes. Miami just missed a chance to seal its bid at Virginia, but as long as it doesn’t lose at home to Boston College, the Hurricanes should qualify as well.
Wake Forest had an awful Saturday. Prior to that, the Demon Deacons had finally picked up a Quad 1 win by beating Clemson at home, good for their third straight win. Then the Tigers lost at home to Florida State, turning that into a Quad 2 win for Wake. To make matters worse, the Deacons then got run off the floor by 19 at Virginia Tech. That’s probably the end for them, even with Florida State now counting as a Quad 1 win.
Stanford is probably also finished after falling to California. The Golden Bears face a critical game Wednesday with SMU, as it’s their last chance for a Quad 1 win. The Mustangs likely seal a bid if they can sweep the California schools.
Big East
Safely In: Connecticut, St. John’s
Right Side of the Bubble: Villanova
Wrong Side of the Bubble: None
Need a Miracle: Seton Hall, Creighton, Georgetown, Butler, DePaul, Providence, Marquette, Xavier
Say goodbye to Seton Hall. The Pirates needed to beat either UConn or St. John’s to get into the conversation, but before they even got there, DePaul, 0-7 on the road in Big East play, walked into Jersey and left with a 12 point win. Seton Hall now owns two losses to the Blue Demons, the second of which is a Quad 3 loss. They would now need to beat both Connecticut and St. John’s just to have a chance.
Villanova missed a chance to lock in its bid by losing to UConn. The Wildcats are still in good shape as long as they avoid home losses to Butler or Xavier. Going 3-1 the rest of the way would do the trick.
Big Ten
Safely In: Michigan, Nebraska, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Right Side of the Bubble: Iowa, Indiana, UCLA
Wrong Side of the Bubble: Ohio State, USC
Need a Miracle: Minnesota, Rutgers, Maryland, Oregon, Penn State, Northwestern, Washington
Wisconsin is in the clear. The Badgers bounced back from a loss to Ohio State by handling Iowa, and their résumé is now more than good enough. As long as they avoid a home loss to Maryland, they should feel safe.
USC badly damaged its chances this week. The Trojans have now lost three in a row, the last of which was inexcusable. Getting blown out by Illinois was bad, but understandable. Losing 71-70 to Oregon, which has struggled all season, is a different story. That’s enough to knock USC off the bubble for now.
UCLA helped its chances tremendously by edging Illinois at the last second. Indiana did nothing to make its case as they weren’t competitive against either Illinois or Purdue. But I still have them on the right side for now.
Big 12
Safely In: Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU
Right Side of the Bubble: UCF
Wrong Side of the Bubble: TCU, Cincinnati
Need a Miracle: Baylor, Colorado, Arizona State, Kansas State, Utah, Oklahoma State, West Virginia
There are only two Quad 3 losses available in the Big 12: Kansas State and Utah. West Virginia found one of them at the worst possible time, losing to Utah in Morgantown. Their profile couldn’t sustain that.
UCF, on the other hand, had a good week, beating TCU at home and Utah on the road. If the Knights can beat BYU, that should seal it.
Cincinnati still has work to do, but the Bearcats are back in the conversation. After crushing Kansas, Cincinnati has won four in a row and needs to keep stacking wins. Realistically, the Bearcats need to arrive at the Big 12 tournament needing two wins to qualify for the NCAAs. If they go 3-1 or 4-0 down the stretch, that’s where they’ll be.
SEC
Safely In: Arkansas, Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Right Side of the Bubble: Kentucky, Texas, Texas A&M, Georgia, Auburn
Wrong Side of the Bubble: Missouri
Need a Miracle: Mississippi, Mississippi State, LSU, Oklahoma, South Carolina
The SEC bubble teams had a big week. Texas A&M picked up back to back wins, Georgia beat both Kentucky and Texas, including its first win in Lexington since 2009, Auburn knocked off Kentucky at the buzzer, and Missouri picked up a win over Vanderbilt.
Georgia and Auburn move to the right side of the bubble, while Missouri still has work to do. The Tigers won’t have any bad loss opportunities before the SEC tournament, as even a road game at Oklahoma counts as Quad 1. If Missouri wins two of its final four, it should enter the conference tournament in good shape.
Kentucky dropped a pair to bubble teams, and things have suddenly gotten unstable. The Wildcats are probably fine, but a win at South Carolina would quiet a lot of the concern.
Mid-Majors
Safely In: Gonzaga, Utah State, Saint Louis
Right Side of the Bubble: Saint Mary’s, New Mexico, Santa Clara, Miami (OH)
Wrong Side of the Bubble: South Florida, McNeese State, VCU, Boise State, Belmont, San Diego State, Nevada
Wednesday is huge, as Santa Clara and Saint Mary’s meet again. The Broncos haven’t lost to anyone but Gonzaga in 2026, while the Gaels have one loss to Gonzaga and one to Santa Clara. The WCC last got three bids in 2022, and that looks very possible again.
Nevada’s upset of Utah State pushes the Wolf Pack into the conversation, though there’s still work to do. San Diego State hurt itself with a loss at Colorado State, but the Aztecs get Utah State and New Mexico this week. A sweep would put them right back in the field.
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