It’s March, and every game now carries greater significance. With conference tournaments beginning next week, time is running out for many teams on the bubble.
We’ll break things down by conference and place teams into four categories: safely in, right side of the bubble, wrong side of the bubble, and need a miracle. “Safely in” teams would make the field barring a complete collapse, while “need a miracle” teams likely need to win their conference tournaments to qualify. Teams on the right side of the bubble would probably make the field today, while those on the wrong side are currently outside looking in.
Here’s where things stand right now.
ACC
Safely In: Duke, Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, NC State
Right Side of the Bubble: Clemson, Miami, SMU
Wrong Side of the Bubble: California, Virginia Tech
Need a Miracle: Boston College, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Florida State, Stanford, Wake Forest
Clemson had a chance to lock up its bid but did what Clemson so often does at North Carolina: lose. The Tigers are now 2-61 all-time in Chapel Hill, which makes their home win over Louisville even more important. That result kept Clemson in good position, and a win over Georgia Tech would likely seal the deal.
Miami is also one win away from feeling comfortable, with two chances at quality victories against SMU and Louisville. SMU, meanwhile, is in a far more precarious spot. The Mustangs were swept on their Bay Area trip to Cal and Stanford and likely need wins over both Miami and Florida State to feel secure.
Cal briefly put itself back in the conversation by beating SMU at home, but the Golden Bears immediately gave that momentum away with a 16-point loss to Pittsburgh. With only Georgia Tech and Wake Forest remaining, they will likely need to make noise in the ACC tournament.
The same is true for Virginia Tech, even if the Hokies close the regular season with a win over Virginia in Charlottesville.
Big East
Safely In: Connecticut, St. John’s, Villanova
Right Side of the Bubble: None
Wrong Side of the Bubble: None
Need a Miracle: Seton Hall, Creighton, Georgetown, Butler, DePaul, Providence, Marquette, Xavier
Villanova is safe. The Wildcats have only one bad loss all season and have consistently taken care of the teams they should beat. Their résumé may not have a signature win, but avoiding bad losses while competing well against top opponents has them in good shape.
Seton Hall, on the other hand, likely needs a deep run in the Big East tournament. Even if the Pirates win their regular-season finale against St. John’s, they probably need to reach at least the conference championship game to have a realistic shot at an at-large bid.
Big Ten
Safely In: Michigan, Nebraska, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Right Side of the Bubble: Iowa, UCLA, Ohio State
Wrong Side of the Bubble: USC, Indiana
Need a Miracle: Minnesota, Rutgers, Maryland, Oregon, Penn State, Northwestern, Washington
UCLA is now one win away from locking things up. The Bruins made a strong statement with a 20-point home win over Nebraska, holding the Huskers to just 52 points. If UCLA can follow that with a victory over USC, it should feel safe.
Iowa did the hard part by beating Ohio State but immediately gave that momentum away with a loss at Penn State. The Nittany Lions are a far tougher team at home, but that is still a game a bubble team cannot afford to lose.
Ohio State helped itself after the Iowa loss by beating Purdue at home. Even with the Boilermakers struggling recently, it remains a significant win for the Buckeyes’ résumé.
Indiana’s losing streak has now reached four games, while USC has dropped five straight. At this point, it appears both the Hoosiers and Trojans may fall just short on Selection Sunday.
Big 12
Safely In: Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU
Right Side of the Bubble: UCF, TCU
Wrong Side of the Bubble: Cincinnati
Need a Miracle: Baylor, Colorado, Arizona State, Kansas State, Utah, Oklahoma State, West Virginia
UCF had its ticket in hand after getting the win it needed over BYU. Then everything unraveled. The Knights followed with a one-point loss to Baylor and an overtime defeat against Oklahoma State, putting them back on the bubble.
Now UCF likely needs to win at what appears to be a collapsing West Virginia, followed by at least one victory in the Big 12 tournament to feel comfortable.
TCU and Cincinnati may be headed toward an elimination game. Both teams have been playing well enough recently to still have a path into the field, but if that changes, their matchup Saturday in Fort Worth could carry massive implications.
SEC
Safely In: Arkansas, Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Georgia
Right Side of the Bubble: Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri
Wrong Side of the Bubble: Auburn
Need a Miracle: Mississippi, Mississippi State, LSU, Oklahoma, South Carolina
Kentucky still looks a bit shaky after its loss to Texas A&M, but the win over Vanderbilt likely did enough to keep the Wildcats safely in the field. Georgia also moved into that category after beating Alabama, while Missouri climbed to the right side of the bubble with a win over Tennessee.
The Tigers gave some momentum back with a loss at Oklahoma, but that still counts as a Quad 1 game. Missouri should be in good shape as long as it avoids a one-and-done showing in the SEC tournament.
Texas A&M boosted its résumé with the Quad 1 win over Kentucky and will likely enter the SEC tournament in solid position. Texas also looks comfortable with six Quad 1 wins to its name.
Auburn, however, may be in trouble. The Tigers simply have too many losses for the committee to ignore.
Mid-Majors
Safely In: Gonzaga, Utah State, Saint Mary’s, Saint Louis
Right Side of the Bubble: New Mexico, Santa Clara, Miami (OH)
Wrong Side of the Bubble: South Florida, VCU, Boise State, Belmont, San Diego State
Move Saint Mary’s into the field after the Gaels delivered a huge finish at home. Facing Santa Clara and Gonzaga to close the regular season, Saint Mary’s swept both games. With the Gaels now off until the West Coast Conference semifinals, their résumé should be more than strong enough.
San Diego State needed a sweep of Utah State, New Mexico, and Boise State to strengthen its position, but the Aztecs instead lost two of the three. That leaves both San Diego State and Boise State facing a difficult path back into the field.
New Mexico, meanwhile, appears to be in a solid spot. The Lobos already own wins over Santa Clara and San Diego State, and they could add another major résumé boost against Utah State in the regular-season finale.
Santa Clara faces a tricky path. The Broncos have a bye to the WCC quarterfinals, where they must avoid a bad loss before potentially getting a third shot at Saint Mary’s. Reaching the WCC final might be enough to feel comfortable, but the safest route would be to win the automatic bid.
If this was your kind of read, you’ll like what’s next. Get The Sandman Ticket, our free, weekly newsletter with picks, insights, and a little bit of everything we love about sports.
