We’re down to about a month until Selection Sunday. Some teams feel good about their seed, while others are just hoping to hear their name called.
We’ll break things down by conference and group teams into four categories: safely in, right side of the bubble, wrong side of the bubble, and need a miracle. “Safely in” teams would make the field barring a collapse, while “need a miracle” teams are likely in only by winning their conference tournaments. Teams on the right side would likely make the field today, while teams on the wrong side are currently out.
Here’s where things stand right now.
ACC
Safely In: Duke, Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville
Right Side of the Bubble: Clemson, NC State, SMU, Miami
Wrong Side of the Bubble: California, Virginia Tech, Stanford, Wake Forest
Need a Miracle: Boston College, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Florida State
Wake Forest may have pushed Stanford out of the picture with a five-point home win. The Deacons are an odd case. They only have one bad loss in 12, but just one quality win. The bigger issue is scheduling tough but not winning any of those games. They are 0-8 in Quad 1 and 0-10 against top-50 teams. Two Quad 1 chances this week with Clemson at home and Virginia Tech on the road will go a long way.
Clemson was trending toward safe status, but a home loss to Virginia Tech and a loss at Duke keep them on the bubble. NC State is in a similar spot after a one-point home loss to Miami. SMU took a bad loss at Syracuse and needs to respond quickly. Miami is probably in if it splits with the Virginia schools this week and definitely in if it wins both.
California and Stanford meet this week, and the loser is likely out. Virginia Tech is in serious trouble after losing by 23 at home to Florida State.
Big East
Safely In: Connecticut, St. John’s
Right Side of the Bubble: Villanova
Wrong Side of the Bubble: Seton Hall
Need a Miracle: Creighton, Georgetown, Butler, DePaul, Providence, Marquette, Xavier
Villanova is close to safe, but a tricky road trip to Xavier keeps them just shy for now. It would take a lot for the Wildcats to miss, but they still have four landmines left in six games.
Seton Hall likely needs a statement win against UConn or St. John’s. If the Pirates lose both, they could end up 21-10 with just one strong win on the resume. The fact that Butler is their second-best win says a lot about the league’s depth this year. They need a big one.
Big Ten
Safely In: Michigan, Nebraska, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan State
Right Side of the Bubble: Wisconsin, Iowa, USC, Indiana, UCLA
Wrong Side of the Bubble: Ohio State, Washington
Need a Miracle: Minnesota, Rutgers, Maryland, Oregon, Penn State, Northwestern
Wisconsin is close to locking things up after beating Illinois and Michigan State. Iowa took a step back with a loss at Maryland and still has a difficult closing stretch. USC and UCLA both have opportunities left, with only one or two non-Quad 1 games remaining.
Ohio State and Indiana still have a path, but they also have several potential landmines left. Avoiding those will be critical.
Big 12
Safely In: Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU
Right Side of the Bubble: UCF
Wrong Side of the Bubble: TCU, West Virginia
Need a Miracle: Baylor, Colorado, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Kansas State, Utah, Oklahoma State
TCU had a huge week, beating Iowa State and then winning in Stillwater. The Frogs now face fellow bubble teams, and a sweep likely moves them to the right side. This week feels like a last stand for them.
UCF looked like it had played its way in after beating Texas Tech, but three straight losses have changed that quickly. West Virginia may be running out of time and likely needs to go at least 5-1 the rest of the way.
SEC
Safely In: Arkansas, Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Right Side of the Bubble: Kentucky, Texas, Texas A&M
Wrong Side of the Bubble: Auburn, Georgia, Missouri
Need a Miracle: Mississippi, Mississippi State, LSU, Oklahoma, South Carolina
Texas A&M has lost four straight, but the schedule has been brutal and none of the losses are terrible. Missouri has three big home opportunities left against Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and Arkansas. Georgia needs to stop the slide quickly after losing five of its last six.
Kentucky likely needs one more win to feel comfortable, while Auburn has dropped four straight and is trending the wrong way.
Mid-Majors
Safely In: Gonzaga, Utah State, Saint Louis
Right Side of the Bubble: Saint Mary’s, New Mexico, Santa Clara, San Diego State, Miami-Ohio
Wrong Side of the Bubble: South Florida, McNeese State, VCU, Boise State, Belmont
Would the NCAA really leave out a one-loss team? The RedHawks are 25–0, but they have just one Quad 2 win and zero Quad 1 wins. If they don’t win the MAC tournament, they could be sweating it out.
Saint Mary’s and Santa Clara may end up competing for the same bid. Their rematch will be massive. Santa Clara needs it after going 0-2 against Gonzaga.
McNeese State might have the most fragile position. The Cowboys are 21-5, but they are not the top seed in their own conference. Stephen F. Austin is, and that complicates everything. McNeese likely needs to get through the Southland tournament clean or very close to it.
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