The NFL Awards will be announced on Thursday, February 5th so we decided to take one last look at the odds and see who’s actually worth betting on. We did decide to omit a couple awards (DPOY and OROY), where the odds are so one-sided it’s not worth jumping in. Long story short, Myles Garrett and Tet McMillan are shoe-ins.
As for the others, we’re leaning toward the favorites for the big awards, as MVP, OPOY, and DROY all have clear frontrunners. However, with a couple of the secondary awards, we see a real chance for upsets, with Comeback Player and Coach of the Year looking less certain than the odds suggest. There’s still some money to be made before everything locks in, so let’s see where the value actually is.
*Odds from FanDuel as of 2/3/26
MVP
Matthew Stafford (-900)
Drake Maye (+650)
Three-quarters of the way through the season, this award felt a lot closer than it looks now based on the odds. Drake Maye had a stellar sophomore year, but he became a bit less consistent down the stretch. Meanwhile, Stafford was lights out, feeding Puka Nacua and leading the Rams to the playoffs in what could be his final season.
Ultimately, Stafford led the league in both passing yards and touchdowns, which gives him the statistical edge over Maye. But what really tips this over is the story. Stafford, possibly in his last ride, puts together a full-season performance that feels like a throwback. Voters will see Maye as a young star who will have plenty of chances. They’ll see Stafford as a legend finishing strong.
Stats plus narrative usually wins, and Stafford checks both boxes.
Offensive Player of the Year
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (-1100)
Puka Nacua (+750)
While many expected Nacua to be part of this conversation, nobody saw JSN running away with it. Nacua is the complete package and showed it again this year, winning deep, creating after the catch, and even lining up in the backfield.
The problem for him is that JSN put up almost identical numbers with far less preseason hype. JSN finished with just 78 fewer yards than Nacua and matched him with 10 touchdowns. But context matters. JSN was the clear focal point of his offense, while Nacua shared the spotlight with Davante Adams and Kyren Williams.
JSN is the bigger surprise, the cleaner story, and the favorite for a reason.
Comeback Player of the Year
Christian McCaffrey (-10000)
Trevor Lawrence (+2500)
This one feels like a lock, but Lawrence actually has more of a case than people want to admit.
McCaffrey battled injuries in 2024 and saw his production dip. In 2025, he came back with over 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 17 total touchdowns.
Lawrence, meanwhile, is coming back from… mediocrity? After years of being labeled overrated, he found his footing under first-year head coach Liam Coen. He threw for over 4,000 yards, 27 touchdowns, and added nine rushing scores.
Lawrence’s season is impressive, but McCaffrey’s bounce-back is too obvious and too dominant. This one’s his.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Carson Schwesinger (-2500)
Nick Emmanwori (+1100)
Unlike CPOY, this one isn’t as close as the odds make it seem.
Emmanwori had a strong year in Seattle, flashing range and versatility with 56 tackles, 2.5 sacks, and an interception. But Schwesinger was on another level.
Despite not being his team’s top defensive draft pick, Schwesinger finished sixth in the entire league in tackles, added 2.5 sacks and two picks, and played like a veteran from Day 1.
This is the easiest bet on the board. Don’t overthink it.
Coach of the Year
Mike Vrabel (-750)
Mike Macdonald (+550)
If there’s one award where an upset can happen, this is it.
Vrabel deserves his favoritism. New England flipped from irrelevant to Super Bowl participant in one year, and Drake Maye’s development has been impressive.
But Seattle’s story is even crazier.
Macdonald lost Geno Smith and DK Metcalf, replaced them with Sam Darnold and a receiver who had never been a true No. 1, and somehow turned that into a Super Bowl favorite tied for the best record in football.
Vrabel probably wins. But if you’re taking one real gamble, this is the one.
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