The opening days of NFL free agency didn’t disappoint. Mega contracts were handed out, veterans changed teams, and one superstar pass rusher was traded before the deal ultimately fell through.
There’s still plenty of action to come this offseason, with the draft likely to provoke further league-altering moves. But now feels like the right time to check in on the futures markets.
Rams Are Rightfully Super Bowl Favorites
Can anyone argue with the Rams leapfrogging the Seahawks to become Super Bowl favorites at +750? Los Angeles added Trent McDuffie and then signed Jaylen Watson in free agency.
Seattle lost several core players, while Los Angeles addressed its weakest position. The ever-aggressive Rams have managed to sustain a contender by trading first-round picks more willingly than any other team.
Tyler Higbee, a sneakily important piece of the offense, was brought back on a two-year deal. This Rams team looks even stronger than the 2025 iteration. If Matthew Stafford stays healthy, they’re the team to beat.
Over on the Jets? Surprisingly, Yes
Over 5.5 wins at +100 looks like exceptional value for the Jets. Yes, the decision to acquire Geno Smith brought understandable mockery, but New York largely had a successful free agency period.
David Onyemata, Demario Davis, Joseph Ossai, T’Vondre Sweat, and Minkah Fitzpatrick are part of a defensive overhaul. Onyemata should help address the run-stopping woes, while Ossai brings pass-rush pressure from the edge.
Adding veterans on defense allows the Jets to focus on offense in the draft. If they can provide Smith with better protection than the Raiders did, this could be a respectable team.
A Wide-Open NFC South
The Carolina Panthers landed the top defensive end and the top off-ball linebacker in Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd. Two positions of need were addressed in the most emphatic way possible, giving Carolina the potential for an elite defense in 2026.
The New Orleans Saints also added another dynamic weapon to their offense in Travis Etienne. David Edwards improves the offensive line in front of Tyler Shough, and Noah Fant’s success as a run blocker should help the running game.
Meanwhile, a talented Atlanta Falcons roster enters the season with Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. competing at quarterback. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, waved goodbye to Mike Evans.
This projects as the NFL’s tightest division, with the favored Buccaneers at +165 and the outsider Panthers at +390. The win totals across the division sit between 6.5 and 8.5.
Carolina and New Orleans both have a real shot at winning a division where mediocrity could be enough to secure a playoff berth.
Baltimore vs. Cincinnati: Closer Than It Looks
So the Ravens didn’t get Maxx Crosby. They did, however, end up signing Trey Hendrickson from division rival Cincinnati.
The Bengals’ response was landing Bryan Cook and Boye Mafe. There’s still work to do on the defensive side of the ball for Cincy, but this is a strong starting point. Bobby Wagner could also be a fit on a one-year deal.
Baltimore added John Simpson to improve its pass protection at guard, but losing Tyler Linderbaum was a blow. Isaiah Likely was another notable departure in free agency.
While the Bengals should be looking to add a defensive player with the 10th pick, look for the Ravens to target a guard such as Vega Ioane.
It’s easy to forget how good the Bengals can be. They’re much closer to the Ravens than the latest odds suggest.
The Bills Are Overpriced
Fresh off another playoff disappointment, the Buffalo Bills had to clear salary cap space before making moves in free agency. They did just that and landed DJ Moore and Bradley Chubb.
Moore is a proven deep threat who should thrive with Josh Allen. Chubb helps the Bills’ defense when healthy, but veteran pass rushers aren’t known for their durability, and Buffalo recently tried a similar move with Joey Bosa.
Brandon Beane’s hands have largely been tied by the Bills’ cap situation. They missed out on Trey Hendrickson and K’Lavon Chaisson, David Edwards signed with the Saints, and there aren’t many viable options left at safety.
This roster still has plenty of flaws. It says a lot about the current state of the AFC that Buffalo remains a favorite at +475. At their current price, we’d steer well clear.
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