If Game 1 is any indication, this series could be decided by special teams.
Montreal drew first blood, converting on three of its five power plays. Juraj Slafkovský led the way with a hat trick on the man advantage, nearly completing a natural hat trick before Brandon Hagel broke it up with a third-period goal.
Montreal showed no hesitation against the Lightning, and that now puts Tampa Bay in a difficult spot. Experience was supposed to be the Lightning’s calling card in this matchup, but the Canadiens neutralized it quickly. If Montreal continues to play faster, experience won’t matter.
The Canadiens have now won three of their past four against Tampa, and the Lightning received more concerning news on Tuesday. Captain Victor Hedman is not expected to play in this series, leaving Tampa Bay without a key piece.
If the Canadiens can take both games on the road, what looked like a long, physical series could turn much shorter.
How the Lightning Can Win
Tampa Bay has to be better at killing penalties, and just as importantly, avoid putting itself there in the first place. The Bolts ranked third in the NHL on the penalty kill during the regular season, but looked overmatched against Montreal’s power play in Game 1.
The bigger issue wasn’t volume. Tampa Bay allowed just 19 shots in an overtime game, an excellent defensive showing even against a Montreal team that doesn’t generate much. But Andrei Vasilevskiy surrendered four goals on those 19 shots, good for a save percentage below .800.
That simply won’t cut it. Vasilevskiy isn’t wearing down at 31, but Tampa Bay’s margin for error shrinks quickly if he’s not at his usual level. The Lightning need him to look like the goaltender he’s been in past seasons. Montreal has already shown it will capitalize on its opportunities, which makes limiting those chances even more critical.
How the Canadiens Can Win
Montreal consistently drew penalties during the regular season, finishing with the third-highest opponent PIM total. The Canadiens also ranked 10th on the power play, proving this is a real strength, even if the 60% conversion rate from Game 1 isn’t sustainable.
Still, Montreal can control this series by continuing to convert with the man advantage. The Canadiens won the special teams battle in Game 1 and need to keep that edge. That also means improving on the penalty kill after allowing two power-play goals on five opportunities.
Montreal likely won’t overpower Jon Cooper’s squad physically, but it can dictate play through discipline and pace. Its speed and youth can create space, and that’s the formula it will need to follow.
X-Factor
Faceoff performance is an underrated factor in a series like this, and it’s one area where Montreal holds a clear edge. Nick Suzuki and Jake Evans have been strong in the circle, while Tampa Bay has struggled to win draws.
None of Tampa’s top three centers have a faceoff win percentage above .482, meaning they’re often starting without the puck. The Lightning typically have the skill to recover possession, but that becomes more difficult against a team with Montreal’s speed and structure.
If the Canadiens continue to control the faceoff battle, they’ll be tough to beat.
Prediction
Montreal appears to be the stronger team right now. It’s certainly the younger group, and that can be an advantage in a playoff series like this. The Lightning have the experience, but the mileage may be starting to show.
The way the Canadiens won Game 1 is repeatable. If that carries over, Montreal wins with relative ease.
The Pick: Canadiens in 6
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