Edmonton is used to opening its playoff runs in Southern California. This time, it’s just a bit farther down the freeway, with Anaheim instead of Los Angeles.
The Oilers have been here before, but there’s some concern this time around. Leon Draisaitl hasn’t skated in a month, and the Oil are a different team without him. For years, this has been a two-man engine built around Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, and they have far less cushion if one of them isn’t at full strength.
Anaheim, however, may not be the team best positioned to take advantage. The Ducks are just happy to be here and have struggled defensively, which is a difficult combination against an offense like Edmonton’s.
The teams met three times in the regular season, with the Oilers winning twice and the home team going 3-0. Edmonton scored at least four goals in each matchup, pointing to a series that could open up offensively.
How the Oilers Can Win
Connor Ingram just needs to be steady between the pipes. Edmonton will generate chances and has a clear advantage in possession. The key is avoiding soft goals that allow Anaheim to stay within reach.
Getting Draisaitl back would make a huge difference. Edmonton can likely get through this series without him, but it will need him against Vegas or Utah, and especially against the Central contenders.
Not only is Draisaitl’s scoring critical, but his skating makes a big difference. The Oilers have the league’s best power play. Anaheim ranked 27th on the penalty kill, so Edmonton can make a living off of special teams. That assumes that McDavid and Draisaitl can get into proper position and make the Ducks take penalties. If that happens, Edmonton routs.
How the Ducks Can Win
Getting pucks to the net will be crucial. Anaheim isn’t without threats, as Cutter Gauthier and Leo Carlsson have shown they can finish consistently. Edmonton’s goaltending remains a question, and the Ducks can take advantage if they stay composed.
Discipline will also be critical. Anaheim doesn’t have the defensive structure to win at this level, even at five-on-five. Playing shorthanded against Edmonton’s attack is a losing formula. The Ducks need to keep this played on even terms and give their goaltenders a chance.
X-Factor
Intimidation vs. exuberance will be an interesting dynamic. Anaheim can play freely with little pressure. Simply reaching the postseason is a step forward and anything beyond getting swept is a bonus.
Edmonton, by contrast, is operating with urgency. The Oilers have been close in recent years, but the path looks tougher now, and the margin for error is shrinking with McDavid and Draisaitl in their prime.
That places the burden on Edmonton to assert control early. If the Ducks are allowed to hang around, the tone of this series could shift quickly.
Prediction
Edmonton holds the edge in both talent and experience. Anaheim may hang around at times, largely due to the Oilers’ inconsistency in net, but this shouldn’t be a long series.
The priority for Edmonton is to close this out quickly and give Draisaitl additional time to recover ahead of the next round. If the Oilers are going to make another Cup run, efficiency here matters.
The Pick: Oilers in 5
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