Welcome back to Crush & Fade. This weekly series takes a look at the current PGA Tour event, while also recapping the previous tournament and highlighting any news in the world of golf.
After two big Signature Events on the West Coast swing, this week’s stop in Florida comes with a bit less buzz. Add in a few late withdrawals from some of the bigger names and the field looks even thinner on paper. But does that really matter? The PGA Tour always seems to deliver, and this could be the week a young star breaks through or a veteran finally gets his moment.
Genesis Recap
Jacob Bridgeman controlled most of the tournament before having to grind it out late. He needed a two-putt from 20 feet on 18 to secure his first Tour win and left the first one just under four feet short. That came moments after Rory holed a long birdie from just off the green to pull within one, with Tiger Woods perched above the 18th green watching it all play out. No pressure.
Bridgeman calmly stepped up and poured the winning putt into the heart of the cup. He almost looked unsure what to do next, walking toward Rory and remembering to remove his hat at the last second before the congratulations came in. He is a very likable young player with serious talent, and after contending at Pebble the week prior until a disastrous 72nd hole, he bounced back in a big way to earn his first victory.
Cognizant Classic
With the Tour shifting to the East Coast, we head to PGA National. The par-71 layout tips out at 7,223 yards. After last week’s tough weather, it is a welcome change to see a much more moderate forecast in the cards. Last year, Joe Highsmith won at 19 under, and a similar number should be in play again this week.
Sandman’s Crush Card
There’s no need this week to hunt for a non-Scottie market or fade the world No. 1, as most of the top names aren’t in the field. The most accomplished player here is Shane Lowry, who sits as co-favorite with Ryan Gerard at +1600, followed by the Højgaard twins at +2000.
This sets up as a week to find value, but it also presents a great opportunity to lean on proven talent in a weaker field.
Shane Lowry +1600 to win
Sugar Shane is one of my favorite players on Tour and this is a great price for him to contend. He finished T11 here in 2025, and his ball striking and experience should have him near the top of the leaderboard all week.
Ryan Gerard +360 to finish Top 5
The co-favorite still offers solid Top 5 value. He finished T25 here in 2025 and his recent form and consistency suggest he will be in the mix on Sunday.
Michael Thorbjornsen +260 Top 10
Thorbjornsen also played here in 2025 and finished T39, and that experience should help. Pebble was a tough outing, but a fresh start on Bermuda greens should put him back in contention.
Jordan Smith +220 Top 20
Smith profiles as a very solid player who still flies under the radar. He ranks near the top of the Tour in ball striking and is coming off a T16 at TPC Scottsdale.
Sandman’s Fade List
Picking fades can be trickier since you are not always placing a direct bet, but rather identifying chalk that could underperform. This week the focus is on one name.
Daniel Berger (+2700 to Win, +320 Top 10, +170 Top 20) is playing a home event and has a decent track record at PGA National, including fourth-place finishes in 2020 and 2022. He missed the cut at Riviera and finished T25 here in 2025 after also missing the cut in 2024. He has worked his way back from a serious wrist injury and is trending in the right direction, but at these prices the value just is not there.
Good luck this week Sandman Nation, and may all your bets land squarely on the green.
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