Welcome back to Crush & Fade. This weekly series takes a look at the current PGA Tour event, while also recapping the previous tournament and highlighting any news in the world of golf.
After a week of prognostication for the ages at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, it was a bit more hit and miss last week at Pebble. Ludvig made for a solid fade after his Round 1 struggles, and “Sugar” Shane Lowry cashed a Top 20. Congrats to Collin Morikawa on his first victory since the Zozo Championship in October 2023. After tapping in the final putt, he announced that he and his wife Kat are expecting their first child later this year. Congratulations Collin!
Pebble Beach recap
Beyond Morikawa’s sensational win, which included a 10 under 62 on Saturday where he hit all 18 greens in regulation, Scottie Scheffler continues to stack Top 10 finishes. He has now finished in the Top 10 in 19 straight tournaments dating back to the 2025 PLAYERS Championship. That is flat out absurd and quite impressive.
For the second straight week, Scheffler did himself no favors with a slow start, but he still surged on Sunday with a 9 under 63. He briefly took the lead after an incredible tee shot and a ridiculous approach that set up a short eagle putt to reach 20 under. It was his third eagle of the day, the first time in more than 40 years that a player has eagled three holes in a single round at Pebble Beach. He remains the best on the planet.
Genesis Invitational preview
After the LA fires forced last year’s event to move to Torrey Pines, it is great to be back at one of the cathedrals of golf. Riviera Country Club returns as the host in 2026. The Par 71 layout stretches to 7,383 yards and rewards both precision and power. The forecast suggests cooler conditions with a chance of moisture.
Riviera is also a true horses for courses track. That shows up in the selections below, where course history and recent form both carry significant weight.
Sandman’s Crush Card
Scottie’s dominance means he is once again off my card as I search for a better mix of value and upside. Riviera has not been his best track either, with a career best finish of seventh in 2022 and results of 30th, 20th, 12th, and 10th in other starts. At +300 to win, I am willing to fade the heavy favorite this week.
Hideki Matsuyama +2200 to Win
Matsuyama enters in strong form with finishes of T8, 2, T11, and T13 this season. He won here in 2024 the last time Riviera hosted this event. His history here includes a 5th, 9th, 11th, and 4th. He clearly loves this track and looked more dialed in off the tee at Pebble. This is a great value number for a player who fits the course perfectly.
Tommy Fleetwood +330 to finish Top 5
Fleetwood arrives in excellent form, finishing T4 at Pebble in his lone PGA Tour start this year. His Riviera results of 28th, 20th, and 10th show steady improvement, and his current form suggests he can contend again.
Collin Morikawa +200 to finish Top 10
It is always tough to win back to back, but Morikawa’s ball striking is as good as it gets. With finishes of 19th, 6th, and 2nd in his last three trips to Riviera, this is a great setup for another strong week.
Ryo Hisatsune +200 to finish Top 20
The 23 year old continues to impress, and the market still seems slow to adjust. This is his first start at Riviera, but his recent form makes this price worth the risk.
Sandman’s Fade List
Si Woo Kim is my fade (+3000 to Win, +220 Top 10, -140 Top 20). He plays an aggressive style that does not fit Riviera well. His results here the past five years are 44th, MC, 73rd, MC, and 37th after a solo third back in 2019. The price is leaning too heavily on recent form.
Good luck this week Sandman Nation, and may all your bets land squarely on the green.
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