A Look Back at 2025
Regular Season: 7-6 (3-5 SEC)
Notable: Despite the disappointing season last year, LSU quietly had one of the best defenses in the country. They were in the top 30 in total yards per game and top 25 for points allowed per game.
What Changed This Offseason
Key Departures:
QB: Garrett Nussmeier (NFL)
LB: Harold Perkins Jr. (NFL)
DB: Mansoor Delane (NFL)
DB: AJ Haulcy (NFL)
HC: Brian Kelly (34-14 record in 4 seasons. Made 1 SEC title game, never made the CFP.)
Ten players caught at least 10 passes last year for LSU, nine of them are gone. Seven went to the NFL, two transferred. The one remaining is RB Caden Durham.
Key Additions:
QB: Sam Leavitt (Arizona St.)
WR: Jackson Harris (Hawaii)
OL: Jordan Seaton (Colorado)
OL: Aliou Bah (Maryland)
DL: Princewill Umanmielen (Ole Miss)
DL: Jordan Ross (Tennessee)
LB: TJ Dottery (Ole Miss)
DB: Ty Benefield (Boise St.)
They added three consensus top 10 players from the portal. Sam Leavitt was the consensus top QB and player overall. LSU finished with the top transfer class on 247 and ESPN, and fifth on On3.
Harris was 2025 first team All-Mountain West with 963 yards and 12 touchdowns. Umanmielen was 2025 third team All-SEC with 9 sacks and 13 tackles for loss. Dottery led the SEC in tackles in 2025. Benefield was 2025 first team All Mountain West with the seventh most tackles in the nation among defensive backs.
Coaching Changes
Head Coach: Lane Kiffin arrives at LSU with a 153-55 record as a college head coach. He led Ole Miss to double digit wins four times in six years. Prior to his arrival, Ole Miss had just two double digit win seasons since 1972. He also brings three national championships as an assistant, two at USC in 2003 and 2004 and one at Alabama in 2015.
Offensive Coordinator: Charlie Weis Jr. followed Kiffin over from Ole Miss. Since 2020, Ole Miss was the only school in the SEC to finish top five in both scoring offense and total yards.
Breaking Down The Offense
Key Returners:
RB: Harlem Berry, Caden Durham
TE: Trey'Dez Green (2nd Team All-SEC)
OL: Braelin Moore
Strength: Offensive Coaching
Last year the offense was seen as underperforming because of Brian Kelly. If LSU had hired almost any other coach, and they didn't have the LSU brand attached, the expectations of this offense would be different. Lane Kiffin changes that. There are still plenty of question marks on this side of the ball, but Kiffin has consistently produced elite offenses and replicated that success as a head coach through his coordinators. The real strength of this team will be their ability to out-scheme just about anyone they play.
Biggest Question: Players
Let's break down each position group. Leavitt was injured last year, and the year prior he wasn't a top-10 quarterback. The running backs are the same two from a season ago, when they ranked last in yards per game in the SEC. The entire receiving room is new, and outside of Harris, none of them have produced anything significant statistically. The offensive line lacks both top-end talent and depth right now. As for the tight end, Green had 433 yards and 7 touchdowns last year, which was good but not great.
Breaking Down The Defense
Key Returners:
DC: Blake Baker (LSU's defense has drastically improved since his arrival two seasons ago. Last year they were statistically one of the best in the SEC, despite the offensive struggles.)
LB: Whit Weeks, Davhon Keys
DB: PJ Woodland, DJ Pickett, Tamarcus Cooley
Strength: Linebacker Group
This linebacker group might be the best pure tackling unit in the SEC. Whit Weeks had 120 tackles in 2024 before missing most of 2025 with injury. Davhon Keys led the team in tackles last year and finished second in the SEC. The player who finished first in the SEC, TJ Dottery, is also on this roster.
Biggest Question: Freshmen on the Defensive Line
Lamar Brown, Deuce Geralds, and Richard Anderson are all true freshmen and top prospects from this recent class, with Brown as a unanimous five-star. Geralds is expected to start on the interior defensive line, Anderson will be part of that rotation, and Brown is currently a fringe starter on the edge. Regardless of the current depth chart, all three will make an impact on the defensive line.
X-Factor: Sam Leavitt
It's pretty simple. With all the question marks on the offensive side of the ball, Sam Leavitt is a big reason this team is still projected near the top of the SEC. He was the unanimous top player in the portal. If he plays like he did in 2024, this team will finish in the top third of the league. If he's better than that, they can win the SEC. If he's worse, there is no area on offense where LSU can make up for that drop in production.
Schedule Breakdown
Win total: 8.5 Over (-110) Under (-110)
Most likely wins: vs. Louisiana Tech, vs. McNeese, vs. Mississippi St.
Kiffin lost one Egg Bowl matchup while at Ole Miss, and odds are he continues his dominance over Mississippi State.
Toughest stretch: vs. Alabama, vs. Texas
LSU would like to win one of these two games for the bigger SEC picture. If they lose both it is not detrimental to the over, but it definitely makes it harder.
Potential Swing Games: vs. Clemson, @ Ole Miss, vs. Texas A&M, @ Auburn
The Clemson, Ole Miss, and A&M games are three of their first four and will be pivotal. If they go perfect in those, there is no way they miss the over. If they lose one, they need to get one back against Alabama or Texas. Go 1-2 or 0-3 and the over becomes iffy. The Auburn road game is also jammed in the middle of the schedule right before they play Alabama and Texas, making it a particularly difficult stretch.
Final Outlook
The Tigers’ defense on paper might be slightly worse going into this season than last year's team. However, they will certainly have a more competent offense. They also have the talent for players to step into real impact roles, especially at corner and across the entire defensive line. Because of that, this defense should actually be statistically better than last year's unit.
On offense, coaching will make a huge difference. There are some whispers about Leavitt and how good he will actually be, and I personally don’t expect him to be mentioned in any Heisman conversation. That said, he should be good enough for this team to stay in the SEC mix. The one thing he has consistently done well is protect the ball, throwing just nine interceptions over 19 games across the last two seasons. The scheme and coaching are a significant advantage and should be enough to keep them in games.
From a betting angle, here is the logic. They have 4.5 projected wins against Louisiana Tech, McNeese, Mississippi State, Arkansas, and Kentucky. Going under and crediting four wins there, then setting the line at 2.5 against Auburn, Tennessee, and Clemson and crediting two wins, gets you to six. Then against last year's playoff teams plus Texas, set that line at 2.5 and credit two wins. At that point, you are looking at an 8-4 floor.
The prediction is 9-3. They will lose a game they shouldn't, they will lose to either Alabama or Texas but not both, and they will drop one more to one of the swing game teams. At the end of the day, betting on a Lane Kiffin LSU team to reach nine wins or better is the right call.
Prediction: 9-3, Over 8.5 wins (-110)
Up Next: Mississippi
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