Fall Saturdays may still feel a long way off, and spring practices have just wrapped up, but that hasn’t stopped our SEC writer, Jack Jankowski, from getting a head start.
Each week between now and mid-August, Ski will break down one SEC team, highlighting key storylines, roster changes, potential schedule pitfalls, and his final prediction, including a betting lean.
To keep things simple, he’s going alphabetically, which means we’re starting in Tuscaloosa with the Alabama Crimson Tide.
A Look Back at 2025
Regular Season: 10-2 (2nd in the SEC)
SEC Championship: Lost to Georgia
CFP First Round: Defeated Oklahoma
Rose Bowl: Lost to Indiana
Notable: The Tide finished 125th nationally in rushing, averaging just 104.1 yards per game.
What Changed This Offseason
Key Departures:
QB: Ty Simpson
RB: Jam Miller
WR: Germie Bernard, Isaiah Horton
TE: Josh Cuevas
OL: Wilkin Formby, Parker Brailsford, Kam Dewberry, Kadyn Proctor
CB: Domani Jackson
LB: Justin Jefferson, Deontae Lawson, Nikhai Hill-Green
DL: James Smith, LT Overton, Keon Keely
Key Additions:
OL: Jayvin James, Racin Delgatty, Kayden Strayhorn
WR: Noah Rogers
DL: Terrence Green
EDGE: Devan Thompkins
LB: Caleb Woodson
Delgatty and James each have multiple years of collegiate experience, bringing much-needed veteran leadership to a new-look offensive line. Rogers adds depth at receiver, though he suffered a patella tendon injury in the A-Game and is expected back around mid-October.
Green gives the Tide a physical, interior presence who should make an immediate impact. Thompkins, one of the top defensive players in the portal, strengthens the pass rush and helps solidify the edge. Woodson adds another proven option at a key position after the Tide lost all three starting linebackers from last season.
Coaching Changes: New O-Line coach Adrian Klemm has had success at multiple stops, including SMU, UCLA, and Oregon. He has developed numerous NFL draft picks and consistently produced strong rushing attacks and pass protection units.
He should help stabilize a group that struggled last season.
Breaking Down The Offense
Key Returners:
OL: Michael Carroll
RB: Daniel Hill
WR: Ryan Coleman-Williams, Lotzier Brooks
Strength: Wide Receiver
Ryan Coleman-Williams is one of the top receivers in college football when healthy. Brooks is poised for a breakout season after a strong showing in the CFP win over Oklahoma, finishing with five catches for 79 yards and two touchdowns.
Together, they have the potential to be one of the best receiving duos in the country.
Biggest Question: Will the new offensive line and returning backs elevate the run game?
The offensive line is largely unproven, with Michael Carroll as the only returning starter. Delgatty has significant experience, albeit at the FCS level, while James appears to be the most reliable option heading into the season. The rest of the group is a mix of younger players and upperclassmen stepping into larger roles for the first time.
The running back room remains largely unchanged from last year. Alabama pursued one of the top backs in the transfer portal, Hollywood Smothers from NC State, but he ultimately stayed put. That suggests the staff may not be fully satisfied with the current group, and it is hard to blame them after seeing such dismal results from this group in 2025. The question now is whether the returning backs can produce behind a revamped offensive line, especially with a greater emphasis on the run game this offseason.
Breaking Down The Defense
Key Returners:
S: Bray Hubbard
CB: Keon Sabb, Zabien Brown, Dijon Lee Jr., Red Morgan
LB: Yhonzae Pierre
Strength: Secondary and Pass Rush
The secondary isn’t just the strength of the defense, it’s the best unit on the team. Bray Hubbard earned All-SEC honors last season and, barring injury, is on track for All-SEC and All-American recognition again.
Keon Sabb, Zabien Brown, Dijon Lee Jr., and Red Morgan all return as starters, giving Alabama rare continuity and experience in a pass-heavy era.
Yhonzae Pierre led the team in sacks last season and is expected to take on a larger role. He has the tools to be one of the top pass rushers in college football and carries All-American upside.
With playmakers like Hubbard and Pierre, this is a defense that should consistently create problems.
Biggest Question: Defensive Line
London Simmons is the only returning starter on the interior and will be asked to handle a larger workload. With the additions of Green and Thompkins, the unit has clear upside, particularly as a pass-rushing group.
Stopping the run consistently and forcing third-and-long situations will determine this defense’s ceiling.
X-Factor: Quarterback Play
Last year’s Alabama offense largely went as Ty Simpson did. When he played well, they won. When he didn’t, they struggled.
That puts the spotlight on the quarterback decision between Austin Mack and Keelon Russell. Mack brings experience, while Russell offers higher upside as a former five-star recruit.
If either develops as expected, Alabama has the pieces to be one of the top offenses in the SEC.
Schedule Breakdown
Win total: 8.5 – Over (-118)/Under (-104)
Most likely wins: vs. ECU, @ Kentucky, @ Mississippi State, vs. Chattanooga, vs. Florida State.
Alabama hasn’t lost to Mississippi State since 2007. After last season’s opener, it would be a major surprise if they dropped their home game against Florida State.
Toughest stretch: vs. Georgia, @ Tennessee, vs. Texas A&M, @ LSU.
Bama likely goes 2-2 in this stretch, with 3-1 in play if they hit their ceiling. If it slips to 1-3 or 0-4, the under 8.5 becomes very live.
Potential Swing Games: vs. South Carolina, @ Vanderbilt, vs. Auburn.
These games will determine whether Alabama exceeds its win total. If they go 3-0, the over 8.5 is a lock. At 2–1, the outlook is still favorable. A 1-2 stretch would be disastrous and most likely put HC Kalen DeBoer on the hot seat.
South Carolina presents an early test, with a dynamic quarterback in LaNorris Sellers and an elite defensive playmaker in Dylan Stewart. After a disappointing season from the Gamecocks, they will certainly have this game circled.
Vanderbilt is coming off a strong year under HC Clark Lea and will be looking to prove it wasn’t a fluke. The Tide haven’t forgotten the 2024 loss in Nashville when they entered the game as the No. 1 team in the country.
The Iron Bowl is always unpredictable. Alabama has won the last six, but Auburn, of course, will enter the game with plenty of motivation to flip that trend.
Final Outlook
The win total in Vegas is currently set at 8.5, and that number feels reachable. A slow start, particularly losses to Florida State and South Carolina, would be dangerous and could shift momentum quickly, much like what we saw with Penn State last year.
On the other end, the ceiling is 11-1 or even 12-0. If the offensive line improves, the run game should follow, and the defense has the talent to be among the best in the SEC. If DeBoer gets high-level quarterback play from either Austin Mack or redshirt freshman and former five-star Keelon Russell, Alabama has the pieces to make a serious run through the conference.
Realistically, this team should land somewhere in between and I’m leaning toward the over 8.5 wins. Alabama can afford three losses in that scenario, which likely comes from splitting its toughest SEC stretch and dropping another game somewhere else. Finding a fourth loss would take multiple things going wrong, and I just don’t see that happening.
It was always going to be an impossible task following a legend, and the fanbase isn’t exactly known for patience, but DeBoer is a good coach at a blue blood program. They may never get back to that Saban-era dynasty, but they’re not falling into mediocrity either.
DeBoer has won at least nine regular-season games in both of his first two seasons in Tuscaloosa, and there’s nothing here to suggest that changes this year.
Prediction: 9-3 (Over 8.5 Wins)
Up Next: Arkansas Razorbacks
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