The early lines at most sportsbooks have the Seattle Seahawks favored by 4.5 points against the New England Patriots. And while that allows for the possibility of taking the Patriots and winning if Seattle wins by a field goal, history says that’s throwing money away.
In 58 previous Super Bowls with a line (Super Bowl XLIX, also between New England and Seattle, went off with no spread between the teams), the underdog has only managed to cover without winning the game outright seven times. In every other case, you’d have been better off either taking the favorite to cover (30 times) or backing the underdog to win the game outright (21 times).
Of course, seven times is more than zero. In 2022, bettors who took the Bengals at +3.5 were grateful for the hook, as the Los Angeles Rams defeated Cincinnati 23-20. But it’s a very rare occurrence. Prior to the Bengals, it hadn’t happened since 2009, when Pittsburgh (-7) defeated Arizona by four.
To put it in perspective, there have been more instances of a safety in the Super Bowl (nine) than a favorite winning without covering (seven). Yet the safety will go off at close to +1000, while New England +4.5 will sit at the usual -110.
So why doesn’t betting the underdog to cover work often in the Super Bowl? Here’s a look.
Teams Pull Out All the Stops
In the movie The Waterboy, as Bobby Boucher’s team gets more creative in the final game, Dan Fouts repeatedly tells Brent Musburger, “It’s the last game of the season; you can’t hold anything back.”
It’s a funny exchange, but Fouts is absolutely right about how teams think. Everything has built up to this moment for both teams. The next chance to use a trick play, make a big stop, execute a planned strategy won’t come for another eight months. Players and coaches do everything they possibly can to win this game, and that means taking chances they wouldn’t try in the regular season.
If one team gets a lead, the trailing team will get more desperate to try to catch up. That can lead to big plays in the other direction, which can turn a close game into a rout. That happened last year with Philadelphia, which delivered a massive knockout punch to Kansas City early and often. The Eagles led 34-0 in the third quarter, keeping their foot on the gas until it was clear the lead was safe.
Panic Sets In
In the regular season, falling behind isn’t a good thing, but it’s usually seen as just another game. It’s relatively easy for a quarterback to steel himself, make a few throws and settle the offense down after a bad start.
In the Super Bowl, every mistake is magnified. In the regular season, you might make a mistake and get away with it against a lesser opponent. But in the Super Bowl, you’re facing a really good team that’s proven itself with two or three playoff wins. Great teams punish mistakes, and it’s easy for one mistake to become two, three and more.
That happened in Seattle’s favor when the Seahawks won Super Bowl XLVIII against Denver. The Broncos sent their first snap over Peyton Manning’s head for a safety, and the Seahawks intercepted Manning twice in the first half to build a 22-0 lead on their way to a 43-8 win. The Broncos were facing their largest halftime deficit of the season, and doing so against a top-tier defense in Seattle. They crumbled under the pressure, resulting in the rout.
Spreads Are Usually Close
In the era of parity, the sportsbooks expect close games in the Super Bowl. That doesn’t mean they’re right; it just means that’s what they’re offering. Their formulas see two good teams that have proven themselves over the course of the season, and that means the game will likely be close.
That doesn’t leave a lot of room for the underdog to cover the spread without winning. In fact, Seattle giving 4.5 represents the widest spread since 2018. In eight of the past nine Super Bowls, the favorite has been giving three points or less at kickoff. The one exception was Super Bowl LII, when the Patriots were giving 5.5 points and lost to the Eagles.
That was one example of the books getting it wrong. Here’s another: five of those nine games were decided by double digits. Underdog covers happen when the game isn’t expected to be close, not when it goes the other way.
In the end, giving up the plus money for the backdoor win just isn’t worth it. If you think the Patriots can win the big game, history says you’ll be better off grabbing them at +195 on the moneyline rather than bothering with the 4.5 points.
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