An at-large bid is usually a sure thing for a team with a near-perfect record. The last time it happened in the MAC, Buffalo knew it had nothing to worry about when it arrived in Cleveland for the MAC tournament. The Bulls were 28-3 in 2019, and they knew they were safely in the NCAA tournament field. When they won the MAC tournament, all it did was boost their seed.
Miami-Ohio’s situation is very different.
The RedHawks have an even better record than Buffalo did. They are the last undefeated team in the country at a perfect 25-0. With six games remaining, they have a realistic shot at finishing 31-0. And in the seeding era of the NCAA tournament, undefeated teams have historically landed on the No. 1 line.
Miami has no chance at that. The RedHawks are far more concerned about whether they would qualify at all without the MAC’s automatic bid.
Do they deserve an at-large bid if needed? Here is a look.
Point: Miami-Ohio is Undefeated
The RedHawks cannot control the MAC’s overall strength. They can only beat the teams on their schedule, and they have done that every time they have taken the floor. Winning has to matter, and Miami has done it consistently.
There are teams who have played weaker schedules than Miami and are nowhere near 25-0. Binghamton, for example, has faced the second-worst schedule in the nation and sits at 5-22, including 2-22 against Division I competition. To quote former Maryland coach Gary Williams, sometimes a team beating bad teams is still a good team.
Counterpoint: Miami’s Schedule Was a Disaster
The RedHawks’ weak schedule is a talking point because it has been awful. Miami will not play a single Quad 1 game all season. The only way it would have been possible was with a road game at Akron, and that did not happen.
Miami’s second-best win of the season came at Wright State, ranked No. 139 in the NET. That is a Quad 3 game even on the road. Miami did not face a single Power 5 opponent all year and played no out-of-conference opponent ranked inside the top 100. Some of that falls on Miami for not building a stronger schedule.
Point: Miami Can’t Force Power Programs to Play It
The RedHawks are never going to get top programs to agree to come to Millett Hall. Their best chance is to play those teams on the road or in neutral-site settings.
This creates a catch-22. High-major programs can keep teams like Miami out of the conversation by refusing to schedule them, forcing the RedHawks to take the games they can get. Miami also has to make its budget work, and it did attempt to schedule true road games.
It is not Miami’s fault that Air Force has lost 18 straight or that Eastern Kentucky is 9-18 after going 18-14 a year ago. It is not Miami’s job to predict which opponents will turn out to be good. The RedHawks scheduled four true road games and played North Carolina-Greensboro in Jacksonville. Iowa, a team that is currently projected safely in the field, did not play a true road game outside of Iowa State and its Big Ten schedule.
Forcing Miami to play only on high-major terms stacks the deck, and the RedHawks should not be penalized for that.
Counterpoint: The RedHawks Could Have Tried Harder
Miami does not have the same scheduling excuse as an established mid-major power that high-majors avoid. The RedHawks were good last season but not dominant, and they were not the type of team that would scare off major opponents.
Last season, they played Big Ten programs like Michigan and Indiana and took a road trip to Vermont. That shows those opportunities can be found.
Miami could have scheduled teams from leagues like the Missouri Valley or the Atlantic 10. Belmont, Illinois State, Murray State, George Mason, and North Carolina-Wilmington would all have been reasonable additions. Dayton might avoid a local matchup, but Duquesne likely would not.
They also could have expanded their footprint out west. After already traveling to Air Force, they could have pursued Utah State, New Mexico, Boise State, or Utah Valley. The Aggies, Lobos, and Broncos would have provided Quad 1 opportunities, while Utah Valley would have been a solid Quad 2 game.
Miami did not have to accept high-major terms to build a more respectable schedule.
Point: Miami Never Expected This Type of Season
Miami has a strong basketball history, but most of its success came in the 1980s and 1990s. Prior to last season, the program had not posted a winning record since 2010. It had gone through multiple coaching changes before Travis Steele arrived, and the program was still rebuilding.
Steele’s job is to schedule in a way that gives his team the best chance to succeed. If he believed this group was not ready to take on high-major competition, it made sense to build a schedule that allowed them to develop confidence and continuity. Given the program’s recent history, that is understandable.
Counterpoint: Miami Has Struggled to Beat Bad Teams
Wins matter, but how those wins look also matters. Miami is 25-0, but it has not consistently dominated its schedule.
The RedHawks needed overtime to beat UNC-Asheville, Buffalo, and Kent State. They edged Akron by three, beat Massachusetts by two at home, and won by two at Buffalo. They also beat Mercyhurst, a second-year Division I program, by just five at home.
Aside from Akron, none of those games were even Quad 2 opportunities. Buffalo at home would have been a Quad 4 loss had it gone the other way, and the same is true for Mercyhurst.
When other teams have been in this position, they showed their quality more convincingly. Buffalo in 2019 and Wofford that same year both had multiple double-digit wins and proved they could handle both good teams and inferior opponents. Both were rewarded with single-digit seeds. It is harsh to say that one loss could keep a previously undefeated team out of the NCAA tournament, but that is the reality Miami faces. If the RedHawks need an at-large bid, it would mean they lost to a team that is nowhere near at-large contention and that won’t look good in the eyes of the committee.
Parting Shot
It has been a historic season in Oxford, and the fan base has every reason to enjoy it. Whether it ultimately leads to a trip to March Madness remains to be seen, but the clearest way for the RedHawks to avoid any stress on Selection Sunday is simple: win the MAC tournament and remove all doubt.
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