This week in Indianapolis, the next wave of NFL talent is on display at the annual scouting combine, with general managers and coaches watching every drill closely.
But elsewhere in Indianapolis, a cautionary tale is unfolding. Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson has requested a trade, and the organization appears willing to grant it.
Three years ago, Richardson was viewed as the Colts’ next franchise savior, the heir to Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck. Now, Indianapolis’ brain trust seem ready to move on. And in many ways, the Colts created this situation themselves.
There are lessons here for the rest of the league as it prepares for the draft. Teams that ignore them risk repeating the same mistake.
The Colts Drafted Scared
Colts GM Chris Ballard said when he drafted Richardson that he didn’t want to see the quarterback become a star somewhere else. In doing so, though, he put his own team in a position where it had to develop him.
Richardson was a project, and with Shane Steichen as a first-time head coach, the Colts were not set up to bring him along the right way. Steichen had to establish credibility in the locker room, and that is difficult to do while developing a quarterback who is not yet ready for the NFL.
What Richardson needed was an experienced quarterback room and a proven head coach so he could sit, learn, and grow over a couple of seasons. Indianapolis did not offer that environment, and it limited any chance to develop his talent properly.
Ballard may have prevented Richardson from becoming a star elsewhere, but he also set his own team back by drafting out of fear of what Richardson could become. That logic can work in later rounds, but not in the first. The Colts needed an immediate impact player and missed. Devon Witherspoon or Jalen Carter could have strengthened the defense right away, but instead the Colts chose a long-term project and stalled their offense. Had they not let fear guide the pick, they would be in a much better position today.
The Colts Prioritized Potential Over Production
It is common for teams to fall in love with what a player might become rather than what he has already shown. In baseball, Billy Beane saw this firsthand when scouts pushed for prospects who were not producing in the minors simply because of their perceived upside.
Richardson never put up numbers at Florida that suggested he was ready to play at an NFL level. But he had rare physical tools, and the Colts convinced themselves they could develop the rest. That approach can work when a team has time and stability. Indianapolis had neither. The Colts had not won a division title since 2014 and were dealing with a frustrated fan base, which meant they did not have the runway Richardson needed.
As a result, his performance was judged on what he could do right away, and it was not close to enough. The Colts would have been better served taking a safer quarterback who had already proven he could produce at the college level. Instead, they chose the higher-risk projection, and it ultimately backfired.
The Rest of The League Adjusted
Above all, NFL quarterbacks have to read defenses. Richardson is not the first quarterback to enter the league with a unique physical skill set, and NFL coordinators are among the smartest minds in the sport. The league quickly identified what he could do and adjusted to him, just as it has with other mobile quarterbacks.
Once those adjustments happen, a quarterback has to rely on intangibles. That means processing defenses, making quick decisions, and winning with knowledge as much as physical ability. Richardson did not show he could make that transition. Once opponents understood his limitations, it became a matter of time before he either adapted or lost his job.
Raw talent alone is not enough to win in the NFL. The Colts and Richardson learned that the hard way.
The Colts Won’t Get Close to Value
Indianapolis invested the No. 4 pick in Richardson, and now the Colts will be lucky to get a fourth-rounder back. To be fair, they don’t necessarily need that value now that they have Daniel Jones. Jones played like a first-rounder in 2025 before he got hurt, and assuming he returns healthy, the Colts should be set at the position for now.
But Indianapolis could have been much further along. The Colts effectively got nothing from such a high draft pick, and it traces back to a failure to properly evaluate their own situation. They didn’t account for their strengths and weaknesses as an organization, and they created a problem of their own making.
Frankly, Ballard and Steichen are fortunate the rest of the roster helped offset that mistake. Most GMs and coaches don’t get the opportunity to recover from missing that high in the draft. The fact that the Colts still have a path forward is a credit to their work in free agency.
It’s also a reminder of the trap that surrounds draft season. Everyone wants the most talented player or the next future star. But sometimes the right move is finding the right fit for your organization. In the Colts’ case, an unproven project like Richardson was not that fit.
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