The 2025 coaching cycle was one of the most chaotic in recent memory, with a wave of unexpected moves across the nation. Whether 2026 reaches that level remains to be seen, but the urgency is certainly building in several places.
With that in mind, here’s a look at the coaches who will need to deliver this season or risk being given their pink slip.
Scorching
1. Mike Norvell, Florida State
It’s shocking to me that Mike Norvell retained his job after the 2025 season. In fact, I’d be surprised if Florida State doesn’t already have a robust list of candidates ready for when the inevitable happens, whether during or after the coming season.
Norvell led the Seminoles to an undefeated regular season in 2023 before a blowout loss to Georgia in the Orange Bowl, but the program has regressed significantly since, going 7–17 over the past two years, including a 2–10 campaign in 2024. Back-to-back seasons without a bowl appearance have him firmly on the hottest seat in the sport, and he’ll need a phenomenal year to remain on the sidelines in Tallahassee.
2. Dave Aranda, Baylor
Much like Norvell, it will take a major turnaround for Dave Aranda to remain in Waco beyond this season. His overall record is an unimpressive 36-37, and that includes three losing seasons in the last four.
Since Baylor’s 12–2 Big 12 title season in 2021, the program has managed just one winning year and is 15-21 in conference play, often finishing near the bottom of the league. Aranda’s defenses have also slipped badly, allowing 29.5 points per game over the past two seasons and routinely giving up season-best performances to opposing offenses.
At this point, a run at the Big 12 title may be the only way to delay the inevitable.
Heating Up Quickly
1. Luke Fickell, Wisconsin
Wisconsin has struggled under Luke Fickell, and there’s real pressure heading into 2026. His 17–21 record since arriving in 2023, including back-to-back losing seasons, falls well short of the program’s standard.
After a 7–6 debut, the Badgers slipped to 5–7 in 2024, their first missed bowl in over two decades, and then 4–8 in 2025, finishing near the bottom of the Big Ten. The challenges have been most evident on offense, where Wisconsin has ranked near the bottom nationally in scoring and failed to generate consistent production despite multiple changes at coordinator.
There are some signs of life, including a pair of ranked wins late last season and increased investment in NIL, but expectations remain high in Madison. Another sub-.500 year likely won’t be enough to quiet the noise.
2. Shane Beamer, South Carolina
South Carolina entered 2025 with lofty goals, but the season quickly unraveled. A roster headlined by LaNorris Sellers, Dylan Stewart, and Nyck Harbor managed just a 4–8 finish and one conference win, a major step back from the year prior.
Beamer now sits at 33–30 overall and 16–24 in SEC play, and the trajectory has been uneven at best, with no sustained momentum despite flashes of success. Staff changes during the season only added to the instability.
On the plus side, much of the core returns, giving South Carolina a chance to rebound, but expectations are clear. If this group doesn’t take a meaningful step forward, it’s hard to see Beamer surviving in Columbia.
3. Scott Satterfield, Cincinnati
It was never going to be easy following Cincinnati’s run under Luke Fickell, especially with the move to the Big 12. Still, Scott Satterfield’s tenure has fallen short. A 3-9 debut in 2023 and 5-7 follow-up in 2024 put him behind early, and even with a bounce-back to 7-6 last season, his overall mark is 15–22.
The Bearcats have yet to finish in the top half of the conference, and late-season inconsistency remains a concern. With a lackluster portal haul this cycle, a significant jump forward seems unlikely.
Smoldering
1. Lincoln Riley, USC
Lincoln Riley’s tenure at USC started fast, with an 11-3 debut season that included a Pac-12 title game appearance and a Heisman Trophy for Caleb Williams. Since then, the results have been mostly disappointing. The Trojans went 8-5 in 2023, 7-6 in 2024, and 9-4 last season, leaving Riley at 35-18 since he came to Los Angeles, with no conference titles or CFP appearances here.
Despite top recruiting classes and talented rosters, the Trojans have struggled when facing top competition, going just 4-11 against ranked opponents under Riley.
USC simply demands more than most programs, and anything short of a CFP berth in 2026 will make the whispers much louder.
2. Matt Rhule, Nebraska
Nebraska looked ready to take a step forward in 2025, but that breakthrough never came. Through three seasons, Matt Rhule has the program hovering around .500, with zero wins over ranked opponents.
Back-to-back 7–6 seasons have ended the program’s bowl drought, but they’ve also highlighted a lack of real progress. The Cornhuskers have struggled on the road and have yet to show they can truly contend in the Big Ten.
Rhule’s rebuild still carries some credibility, but patience in Lincoln is starting to wear thin. If 2026 doesn’t produce a meaningful jump, perhaps even to double digit wins, the heat in Lincoln will rise considerably.
3. Dabo Swinney, Clemson
Dabo Swinney built Clemson into a national power, but the standard he set is now the problem. A 7-6 season in 2025, including a 1-3 start and public admissions of coaching failures, has shifted expectations from dominance to disappointment.
The bigger issue is fit with the modern game. Swinney has been slow to embrace NIL and the transfer portal, leaving Clemson behind programs that aggressively rebuild rosters. Add in concerns about staff continuity and a lack of fresh ideas, and the pressure starts to build.
Given his résumé and buyout, Swinney’s rope has more slack than most on this list, but he’s no longer untouchable. If Clemson doesn’t rebound, the flames will rise quickly.
A Few Sparks
1. Jeff Lebby, Mississippi State
Jeff Lebby earned some breathing room by improving from 2–10 in 2024 to 5–7 last season, but the margin remains thin in the SEC. With a tougher schedule ahead, Mississippi Statehas to start winning close games, something that cost them last year.
A 7–17 record and 1–15 mark in SEC play isn’t sustainable, even with Lebby’s offensive track record. Unlike Dabo Swinney, he doesn’t have built-in protection. If progress stalls, the conversation in Starkville will shift quickly.
2. Deion Sanders, Colorado
Colorado’s momentum under Deion Sanders has slipped. After a 9-4 season, the Buffaloes fell to 3–9 in 2025, raising legitimate questions about sustainability. Sanders can generate attention and develop talent, but building a consistent winner is the next step.
This isn’t necessarily a typical hot seat, as Colorado has publicly backed him and his brand still carries weight. But the margin for error is gone, and he now must prove the early success is repeatable.
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