We’re now more than a week removed from the NCAA Tournament, but it still feels like a good time to look back, especially at the bets that didn’t go our way. We did fairly well overall, but as always in March, a few results still sting. Here’s a look at the five worst bad beats of the tournament.
1. Michigan -6.5 v. UConn
Call it what you want, this was a bad beat, and it came on one of the biggest stages of the tournament. Michigan led by six in the final seconds when Roddy Gayle Jr. grabbed a rebound off a missed UConn layup with seven seconds left. Instead of securing the ball and taking the foul, Gayle made the smart basketball play, launching it downcourt and effectively ending the game with a six-point win.
If you had UConn, you’re thrilled. If you had Michigan -6.5, it’s a brutal outcome.
It didn’t help that Michigan couldn’t buy a shot for most of the game. They went 0-for-8 from three in the first half and finished at just 13% from deep, making only two threes all night. That lack of shooting led to their lowest scoring performance of the tournament at 69 points, 21 fewer than their next lowest output.
2. Santa Clara +3.5 v. Kentucky
This was my favorite upset pick of the tournament. Santa Clara had the length and scoring to challenge a Kentucky team that hadn’t inspired much confidence, and it felt like it was lining up perfectly.
The game delivered, with 20 lead changes and a back-and-forth battle throughout. With nine seconds left, Otega Oweh tied it at 70 with a layup. Santa Clara answered immediately, running a pick-and-pop where Allen Graves drilled what looked like the game-winning three with two seconds remaining.
Then everything flipped. Oweh took the inbound, pushed it up the floor, and buried a 32-footer to force overtime.
Santa Clara couldn’t recover in the extra time, missing six threes as Kentucky pulled away for an 89-84 win. I was there in person, and I’ve never seen a crowd swing from that loud to that quiet that fast.
3. Duke -5.5 v. UConn
Yet another UConn appearance on this list, which shouldn’t come as a surprise with Dan Hurley’s group.
Duke was on the wrong end of another collapse, and this one was even worse than last year’s loss to Houston. The Blue Devils led by as many as 19 and took a 15-point advantage into halftime before everything unraveled in the second half.
They managed just 28 points after the break and committed eight turnovers, leading directly to 16 UConn points. That overshadowed what had otherwise been a strong performance, shooting 40% from three and winning the rebounding battle by six.
The final blow came with six seconds left, a Cayden Boozer turnover that led to Braylon Mullins drilling a 35-footer to complete the comeback and give UConn a 73-72 win.
4. UCLA -5.5 v. UCF
This was a rough one for UCLA bettors, especially because the game never really felt in doubt until the final minute. UCLA controlled things throughout and led by nine with 35 seconds left, with the cover looking secure.
Then everything changed quickly. UCF hit a three to cut it to six, and after a sloppy sequence, UCLA had the ball again with 16 seconds left needing only to maintain possession. Instead, Skyy Clark lost control and dribbled it off his knee, chipping a tooth in the process.
UCF capitalized immediately, knocking down another three to make it a one-possession game. UCLA held on to win, but only by four.
Over the final two minutes, UCLA made just one field goal and missed four free throws, turning what should have been a comfortable cover into a loss. It was their game from the start, but they couldn’t close it out cleanly.
5. Vanderbilt -1.5 v. Nebraska
This was one of the more underrated games of the tournament, especially down the stretch. Vanderbilt and Nebraska went blow-for-blow in the second half, with four lead changes in the final two minutes.
With the game tied at 72 and 39 seconds left, Vanderbilt had a chance to take control, but a long possession ended in a forced mid-air attempt that didn’t fall. Nebraska pushed the other way, and a defensive mistake gave Braden Frager a clear lane for a tough go-ahead layup with two seconds remaining.
Then came the moment. Tyler Tanner caught the inbound and launched a half-court shot that rattled out twice, inches away from dropping and becoming one of the best shots in tournament history.
Even if it had gone in, Vanderbilt still wouldn’t have covered, but it was that close. Another “what if” to add to the list, right up there with Gordon Hayward’s near-miss against Duke in 2010.
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