With the regular season winding down, it’s time to lock in futures for who will cut down the nets in Indianapolis. Let’s take a look at which teams to target and which ones to avoid.
All odds via FanDuel as of 2/11/26
Target: Michigan (+480)
This one feels obvious with Michigan holding the best odds in the country, but the Wolverines have been dominant all season and show no signs of slowing down.
Their biggest strength is depth and versatility. Any night, a different player can lead them to a win. The trio of Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr., and Aday Mara anchors the frontcourt, while freshman Trey McKenney averages 10 points off the bench as the fourth-leading scorer. Roddy Gayle Jr., LJ Cason, and Will Tschetter provide additional production and could start for many programs.
The Players Era Tournament run remains one of the most impressive stretches of the season, with Michigan beating San Diego State, Auburn, and Gonzaga by an average of roughly 36 points.
Statistically, the profile is just as strong. Michigan owns the No. 1 defense in KenPom at 0.92 points allowed per possession, ranks eighth nationally in rebounds at 41.8 per game, and shoots 51.3% from the field, fourth best in the country. That balance travels well in March.
Avoid: Houston (+950)
Houston’s defense is among the best in the nation, allowing just 61.6 points per game, but March still requires consistent shot-making.
The Cougars rank 97th in scoring and 89th in three-pointers made per game, which is a concern in a tournament setting where offensive droughts end seasons. Houston has reached the Sweet Sixteen every year since 2020, but the path ahead is demanding with road games at Iowa State and Kansas and a matchup with Arizona.
They are likely headed for a No. 1 seed, but without reliable perimeter scoring, the ceiling is limited.
Target: Arizona (+500)
Arizona is coming off a loss to a Kansas team without Darryn Peterson, but the Wildcats still profile as one of the most complete teams in the country.
They rank seventh in scoring, second in rebounds, and sit inside the top 40 defensively in opponent points per game. Physically, they wear teams down, with 10 games this season scoring 50 or more points in the paint.
The schedule remains challenging with Texas Tech, BYU, Houston, Kansas, and Iowa State ahead, but that gauntlet should prepare them for tournament play. The only betting concern is market saturation, as Arizona has attracted more futures money than any other team.
Avoid: Michigan State (+4000)
Michigan State is likely headed for a high seed, but the offensive limitations are difficult to ignore.
The Spartans are an excellent rebounding team at 41.4 per game, but their shooting numbers lag behind, ranking 124th from three at 34.8% and 90th in two-point percentage at 54.2%. That profile is difficult to trust in a tournament setting.
Jeremy Fears provides scoring upside but can be inconsistent, and the offense as a whole lacks the efficiency typically required for a deep run.
Target: Kansas (+1700)
Kansas proved its depth with a statement win over Arizona without Darryn Peterson. Flory Bidunga, Melvin Council Jr., and Bryson Tiller stepped up, showing the Jayhawks can generate offense from multiple sources.
They are now 9-2 without Peterson, which demonstrates roster flexibility. With him healthy, Kansas has the balance and experience to compete on neutral floors in March.
The biggest question is consistency away from Allen Fieldhouse, but the ceiling remains high.
Avoid: Nebraska (+3000)
Nebraska has had a strong season and is likely headed for a lofty seed, but the roster construction raises concerns for tournament play.
The Cornhuskers lack size and struggled on the glass against Purdue, getting outrebounded 54-37 and allowing 21 offensive boards. Those second-chance opportunities become magnified in March.
Their path relies heavily on three-point shooting, where they rank 11th nationally in makes per game. If they get hot, a Sweet Sixteen run is possible, but the floor is low due to matchup dependence and rebounding issues.
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