In 2023, it felt like the NCAA tournament had reached peak madness. A No. 15 seed, Princeton, won a game for the third straight year. Fairleigh Dickinson became just the second No. 16 seed ever to beat a No. 1, knocking off Purdue. The best seed to reach the Final Four was a No. 4, and one semifinal featured San Diego State against Florida Atlantic, with the Aztecs advancing to the title game.
2024 brought more of the same. A No. 13 and a No. 14 each pulled first-round upsets, and No. 11 NC State made a run all the way to the Final Four. But since then, that chaos has all but disappeared.
For the second straight year, no team seeded lower than a 12 has won a tournament game. High Point was the only small-conference champion to pull an upset, and no mid-majors made it past the second round. That shift has people wondering whether NIL has effectively eliminated the possibility of a Cinderella.
Is that really the full story, or is there more behind the change? Here’s a closer look at what happened to Cinderella.
Every Game is Televised
In 2000, then-Lafayette coach Fran O’Hanlon noted that one advantage of facing Temple in the first round was his relationship with Owls coach John Chaney, which made it easier to get film on the opponent.
It didn’t matter. Temple still rolled to a 26-point win.
Today, that kind of access isn’t a concern. Any team can pull up ESPN+ or another streaming service and watch nearly any opponent, from Duke to Mississippi Valley State.
The result is fewer unknowns. Opponents can be scouted in detail, with comprehensive reports built quickly and efficiently. Even if a team is initially caught off guard, there is enough time to adjust.
On Selection Sunday, Purdue’s Oscar Cluff mistakenly thought the Boilermakers’ first-round opponent, Queens, was located in New York rather than Charlotte. By tipoff, that confusion was irrelevant. Purdue’s staff had all the necessary information prepared, eliminating any element of surprise.
That level of preparation reduces the chances of an upset.
No More Overrated Favorites
One of the biggest drivers of past upsets was imperfect seeding. The selection committee leaned heavily on RPI, a formula that was relatively easy to manipulate. Some teams built résumés around it, earning seeds that didn’t always match their true quality, which left them vulnerable to capable double-digit opponents.
That’s no longer the case. The committee now leans on more advanced metrics, including KenPom and Bart Torvik, along with the NET ranking, which provides a more accurate picture of team strength.
The result is more precise seeding. A true No. 3 seed is now more likely to face a true No. 14, rather than an overrated favorite against an undervalued opponent. That reduces the margin for surprise, as the gap between teams is more accurately reflected.
When upsets become less frequent, it often means the committee has done its job.
More Respect For Mid-Majors
The committee is also less likely to underseed strong mid-majors. In 2005, Syracuse famously lost as a No. 4 seed to No. 13 Vermont, a senior-laden team that had played a challenging schedule but was pushed down the bracket by its RPI.
That type of mis-seeding is less common today. A team with a résumé like Vermont’s would likely land several lines higher, reducing the gap between opponents.
When potential Cinderellas are seeded closer to where they truly belong, the opportunity for a “classic” upset becomes far less likely.
Superconferences Weed Out the Weak
Don’t underestimate the impact this has had. Playing in expanded, high-level conferences means teams have to earn everything. No longer can a program stack non-conference wins and ride that to a high seed. If you’re going to land on the top four lines, you have to prove it over the course of the season.
By the time those teams reach March, they’ve already been tested in that environment. Close games, physical matchups, high-pressure situations, they’ve seen it all. When another tight game presents itself in the tournament, that experience often makes the difference.
And by their nature, these superconferences tend to filter out weaker teams from reaching the top of the bracket in the first place.
NIL and the Portal
The transfer portal and NIL have undeniably changed the landscape. Programs can now build rosters by targeting and compensating top mid-major players, who are immediately eligible to contribute. That simply wasn’t possible in previous eras.
In the short term, that has thinned out some of the talent base at smaller schools. But over time, the most well-run programs will adjust. Whether through increased investment, shifts in recruiting strategy, or a greater emphasis on development, the best coaches and programs will find ways to adapt.
It’s Not Midnight Yet for Cinderella
In 2002, there were concerns that the pod system would eliminate major upsets. That was the first year the committee began placing top seeds close to home, creating near home-court environments and, in theory, making it even harder for underdogs to break through.
But within a few years, that edge proved manageable. Smaller programs still found ways to win, they just had to be better to do it.
The same principle applies now. The path is tougher and the margin for error is smaller, but it isn’t gone. When the conditions are right, an experienced, well-coached, confident team will once again break through and wear the glass slipper.
Cinderella won’t be gone for long. And when she returns, she’ll once again leave a trail of busted brackets behind her.
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