Identifying potential MLB breakout candidates is a worthwhile endeavor, whether you’re analyzing futures markets or preparing for your fantasy draft. Noticing which players are most likely to break out requires a deep dive into statistics, including batted-ball data, pitcher stuff metrics, and much more.
There’s no sure-fire formula to predict when or if a player will break out. Pitchers like Nick Pivetta were long tipped to break through as an All-Star before they did. There are walk machines and toolsy hitters that have been perceived as potential breakout players but never realized that potential.
It’s not an exact science, but the public accessibility of advanced analytics means we can make informed predictions. With that in mind, here are a few players whose underlying numbers suggest a breakout could be coming.
Dillon Dingler (Tigers)
Dillon Dingler was above average at the plate in 2025. His batted-ball numbers were even better, with a .351 xwOBA. Sure, he doesn’t walk, but he consistently drives the ball and makes a lot of contact.
On the defensive side, he was rightly awarded the American League Gold Glove. Dingler was already a three-win player, and there’s the upside for him to be a five-win player in 2026.
Don’t be surprised if Dingler is in the All-Star mix this season. The mix of an above average hard-hit rate with an elite xBA and a complete defensive skillset is incredibly valuable.
Kyle Manzardo (Guardians)
A 9% walk rate and 74th percentile barrel rate bodes well for Kyle Manzardo, who hit 27 home runs in 2025. The former top prospect has shown he can take MLB pitchers deep.
Offspeed pitches remain a minor weakness, but Manzardo has shown he can adjust. He also had the third-lowest groundball rate last season, illustrating an ability to get the ball in the air on a consistent basis.
Consistently pulling the ball in the air, Manzardo has 35+ homer potential. If he remains disciplined at the plate, the on-base percentage could get up around .350, even though he’s never going to have a high average.
Jake McCarthy (Rockies)
Elite speed and contact could be a winning formula for Jake McCarthy now he gets to call the cavernous Coors Field home. McCarthy was in the 81st percentile in xBA in 2024 and has great bat-to-ball skills.
Already with multiple seasons with 20+ stolen bases, McCarthy could exceed the .769 OPS he posted in 2022. Look for extra-base hits on balls that would be singles for most players and plenty of legged-out triples.
Changes in the Rockies’ front office could lead to a change in approach, too. McCarthy had encouraging power numbers in the minors back in 2021, and it will be interesting to see if being in Colorado now will unlock some of that pop.
Gavin Lux (Rays)
The Rays are good for at least one breakout hitter each year. Jonathan Aranda was that man in 2025. Could it be Gavin Lux in 2026?
Lux, once a top five prospect in the sport, hasn’t lived up to expectations. He has, however, learned to make great swing decisions, with an 11.1% walk rate and a 96th percentile chase rate in 2025.
Add in a knack for squaring the ball up and a near-elite rate at hitting the launch-angle sweet spot, and you can see how a front office as savvy as Tampa Bay’s saw something here. The power won’t be dramatic, but it’s feasible the Rays make Lux into a guy with a .380 OBP and 15 homers.
Jac Caglianone (Royals)
Posting -1.3 bWAR in 62 games wasn’t a fair representation of Jac Caglianone’s ability. His xwOBA was 82 points higher than his wOBA, making him arguably the unluckiest hitter in baseball. The lefty slugger also had an elite bat speed and a more than serviceable 12% barrel rate.
Kauffman Stadium’s outfield walls being brought in stands to benefit Caglianone in a big way. This is a guy who hit 22 home runs in 95 minor-league games. It would be good to see an improvement in his swing decisions, but even without it, the power upside is massive.
Caglianone is a candidate to hit 40 home runs in 2026 if he stays healthy for the full year. A disappointing rookie year shouldn’t distract from his underlying talent.
Shane Baz (Orioles)
Shane Baz is 11th in stuff+ with four above average pitches. He was much better than his 4.87 ERA suggested in 2025, with a 3.88 xERA and an above-average groundball rate.
Baltimore isn’t famed for its pitcher development and Baz has had issues with command. A 9% meatball rate in 2025 is alarming for any pitcher, even when they’ve got stuff as sharp as Baz.
Still, the under-the-hood numbers are very encouraging. Baz’s knucklecurve is among the best in baseball. Tweak the pitch mix and improve his command, and Baz could post an ERA in around 3.20.
José Soriano (Angels)
Only 11 starters had a better pitching+ than José Soriano in 2025. He ranked ahead of Dylan Cease, Freddy Peralta, and Joe Ryan. An elite splitter and slider are a more than solid foundation for a pitcher with elite command.
Despite some decent numbers in his career thus far, Soriano is yet to post an xERA below four. He has the stuff to do so if he cuts down on the usage of his sinker and fourseamer, which both give up too much hard contact.
In the 100th percentile in groundball rate already, the components are there for Soriano to pitch at an All-Star level in 2026.
Ryan Pepiot (Rays)
Ryan Pepiot has been a stalwart on lists of this nature. Already a good starter, the question is whether Pepiot can take the next step towards becoming a Cy Young contender in 2026.
The fastball, curve, and changeup are good to elite pitches. If the curve can maintain a 32% whiff rate on higher usage, Pepiot has the arsenal to pitch to a sub-three ERA. He only threw the curveball 3.3% of the time in 2025.
The slider and cutter can be shelved unless they are getting reshaped considerably. Pepiot can get by as a three-pitch guy with how strong his three best pitches are.
Ryan Zeferjahn (Angels)
A lack of control left Ryan Zeferjahn with a FIP above five and a 90 ERA+ in 2025. Zeferjahn was 10th among all relievers in stuff+ with his fastball, cutter, and slider ranking at least 10% better than league average.
Improving command is easier said than done. Zeferjahn doesn’t need to start hitting the corners with every pitch. If he can cut down on the walks and limit the meatballs, he could elevate himself into the tier of better relievers in the American League.
The Angels are a team that can afford to be patient with a pitcher of Zeferjahn’s talents. It’s a project worth investing in considering his upside.
Jake Bird (Yankees)
Jake Bird endured a brutal start to his Yankees’ career. Optioned almost immediately after three rough outings, Bird spent the remainder of the season in the minors.
The Yankees have vacancies in their bullpen, though, and Bird is worth giving an opportunity. His pitching+ of 114 reflects a mix of stuff and command, with the latter proving his weakness in Colorado.
New York needs to focus on his cutter, slider, and curveball. All grade as either very good or elite pitches. A 3.85 xERA in 2025 shows he’s nowhere near as bad as the traditional metrics indicate, and there’s a world where Bird posts a 30+% strikeout rate.
If this was your kind of read, you’ll like what’s next. Get The Sandman Ticket, our free, weekly newsletter with picks, insights, and a little bit of everything we love about sports.
