Even as we approach the halfway point of the MLB season, there are still plenty of hitters whose numbers do not reflect how well they have actually played. While sample sizes are becoming increasingly meaningful, several players have been far less fortunate than their traditional stats would suggest.
Lawrence Butler -- .234 wOBA vs .307 xwOBA
Butler has regressed over the last couple of seasons, but a 38 OPS+ and -1.1 bWAR feels harsh given the quality of contact he's produced. His results at the plate have been disappointing, though his swing decisions remain solid.
In fact, his xwOBA is slightly better than it was in 2025. The problem is that the outcomes have not followed. Butler posted a 90 OPS+ a year ago, and his underlying metrics suggest he should be much closer to that level than his current numbers indicate. A player in the 40th percentile in xBA should not be carrying a .165 batting average.
Will Smith -- .323 wOBA vs .386 xwOBA
Smith had the worst OPS+ of his career before landing on the injured list. That’s only a small part of the story, however.
He had the best barrel rate of his career and his highest xwOBA since 2020. He’s also got his lowest groundball rate since the pandemic.
Mookie Betts -- .269 wOBA vs .330 xwOBA
Like Smith, Betts has missed time due to injury. Unlike Smith, Betts' expected metrics are far from elite, with an xwOBA in just the 57th percentile.
The former MVP has been better than his .603 OPS suggests, but that does not mean he has been vintage Mookie. Even accounting for some poor fortune, Betts has taken a noticeable step backward over the last 18 months and currently profiles much closer to league-average than the perennial MVP candidate he once was.
Victor Caratini -- .280 wOBA vs .335 xwOBA
Caratini's OPS is only marginally better than Betts'. His xwOBA is five points higher, despite recording his lowest hard-hit rate since 2020. Pulling the ball in the air at a career-high rate, there is a lot to like beneath the surface.
A .993 OPS over the last two weeks suggests Caratini may already be starting to see the benefits of that approach. Positive regression appears to be on the horizon for the veteran catcher.
Bo Bichette -- .271 wOBA vs .326 xwOBA
The second-worst xwOBA of Bichette's career should still be enough to make him roughly a league-average hitter. Unfortunately for the Mets and their big-money acquisition, Bichette owns a .607 OPS and has chased far too often.
It has not been an ideal start to Bichette's tenure in Queens, but his results have been worse than his actual metrics suggest. There has been a fair amount of batted-ball misfortune mixed in.
Austin Wells -- .247 wOBA vs .301 xwOBA
Wells has been within a few OPS+ points of league average across his first two-plus seasons in the majors. A 51 OPS+ in 2026 stands out as an anomaly.
Wells' xwOBA is actually better than it was in 2025. He's pulling the ball in the air regularly, drawing walks, and generating respectable bat speed. The issues against breaking pitches are legitimate, but his profile paints a more encouraging picture than a .533 OPS.
J.T. Realmuto -- .264 wOBA vs .315 xwOBA
J.T. Realmuto’s xwOBA in 2026 is .315 compared with .316 in 2025. His OPS has dropped 128 points. Striking out less, walking more, and showing no clear weakness against a pitch type, Realmuto still looks like a decent hitter.
His improved bat speed also suggests there could be more power upside than we saw in 2025. Don’t worry, Phillies fans, this isn’t the beginning of the end for the former All-Star.
Edouard Julien -- .291 wOBA vs .340 xwOBA
Julien is becoming a master at underperforming his expected metrics. The Rockies infielder ranks in the 93rd percentile in hard-hit rate, the 95th percentile in chase rate, and the 67th percentile in xwOBA.
Somehow, Julien is in his third straight season with an OPS+ in the 70s. He’s making more solid contact and getting walks for fun. This is a guy who should be performing much better.
Marcus Semien -- .275 wOBA vs .324 xwOBA
Semien is headed for a third straight season with an OPS below .700, and his xwOBA sits in just the 51st percentile.
Interestingly, pitchers appear increasingly comfortable attacking him in the strike zone. He has struggled against breaking balls, while a rising whiff rate and declining walk rate help explain the downturn in production.
Luis Rengifo -- .247 wOBA vs .296 xwOBA
Rengifo is in the 21st percentile in xwOBA, the lowest mark on this list. The expected metrics are in familiar territory, but he is getting there in a different way, with an increased walk rate, a decreased strikeout rate, and a much more patient offensive profile.
That formula has worked for plenty of Brewers bats. It could pay dividends for Rengifo as well if he can begin lifting the ball more frequently.
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