Were Duke’s early struggles a temporary blip or a warning sign?
The Blue Devils have looked shaky so far in the NCAA tournament, but they’re starting to get healthier. If they resemble a full-strength team in the regional, that spells trouble for St. John’s, Connecticut, and Michigan State.
Ironically, Duke coach Jon Scheyer enters this regional as the least accomplished of the four. He’s the only one without a national championship, while Rick Pitino (1996, 2013), Tom Izzo (2000), and Dan Hurley (2023, 2024) have all won it. That means star power will be on full display in Washington.
Here’s a look at the four teams.
Duke
Reason to believe: The Blue Devils are getting healthy again. Patrick Ngongba II’s return gives Duke the length it needs to wear down opponents. They did not look like themselves until the second half against TCU, which could be tied to not being at full strength.
Duke has dominated when at full strength, including a win over Michigan on a neutral floor. The Blue Devils rebound at a high level, and their defense might be the best in the country. This team can do just about everything well.
Reason for concern: Certainly, not having Caleb Foster has changed the makeup of this team. But that’s not the only issue. The Blue Devils are only average when it comes to ball control and turnover rate. That is a real concern against St. John’s. Duke is also not a strong 3-point shooting team, which could become an issue if the regional final opponent is Michigan State.
Connecticut
Reason to believe: Dan Hurley remains one of the elite minds in the sport. The only team to beat Connecticut in March over the past three seasons is Florida, which went on to win the national title.
This Connecticut team is not nearly as talented as past editions, but Hurley has willed it to 31 wins and back to the Sweet 16. He has clearly come into his own as a college coach and continues to get the most out of his team.
Reason for concern: Connecticut has never really established itself as doing anything particularly well this season. The Huskies were the top team in a mediocre league, but nothing about them screams true contender. They play solid defense, but not at a championship level, and the same holds true on the offensive end.
That could be problematic against Michigan State. The Huskies are prone to turnovers and won’t get to the line as often as the Spartans. Despite being the No. 2 seed, Connecticut may be the most exposed team in the region.
Michigan State
Reason to believe: Tom Izzo and the Spartans’ rebounding have been central to this run. Michigan State has been dominant on the glass, which is a big reason it has reached its third Sweet 16 in four years.
The Spartans also defend the shots they allow. Michigan State is willing to concede 3-point attempts, but typically only as a third or fourth option within a possession. They have been effective at forcing opponents to adjust and, as usual, have shown they can grind out games.
Reason for concern: The Spartans turned the ball over too often in the win over Louisville. Michigan State won’t advance if it continues to give away easy baskets at the other end. The Spartans are at their best when they use their length effectively. When the ball is on the deck, they have a much harder time controlling the flow of the game.
St. John’s
Reason to believe: The Red Storm have the ability to change a game with their pressure. St. John’s is one of the few teams remaining that prefers to push the tempo, and it has served them well all season.
They also defend the 3-point line effectively. Rick Pitino has long built his teams on strong transition defense and taking away the easiest path to points. St. John’s does not allow many clean looks, and it has just one loss in its past 21 games.
Reason for concern: The Red Storm are not a strong rebounding team. They tend to end possessions by forcing a bad pass or creating a mistake. When a possession ends with a shot, St. John’s is often at a disadvantage on the boards.
As a result, Duke is likely to have the edge on the glass. St. John’s will need to apply enough pressure to keep rebounds from becoming the deciding factor.
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