Michigan has spent the entire year looking like it’s on another level. The Big Ten’s recent success has only reinforced the Wolverines’ quality.
Six Big Ten teams reached the Sweet 16, and three are already through to the Elite Eight, with the Wolverines and Spartans still to play. Against that level of competition, the Maize & Blue didn’t lose a single road game. Nobody in the conference had done that in 50 years, when Bob Knight’s Indiana unit became college basketball’s last undefeated team.
So nothing is likely to shake this squad. The Wolverines face a challenging path in Chicago, but they’ve been nearly untouchable all season. Beyond them, Iowa State, Alabama, and Tennessee are also battle-tested.
Here’s a look at the four teams.
Michigan
Reason to believe: Michigan has dominated all season. Its closest call away from home came at Penn State, and most of their road games ended in double-digit wins. It has also looked sharp in its first two tournament victories and continues to excel on the glass.
The Wolverines can wear teams down over the course of a game, and that steady pressure often leads to opponents breaking late.
Reason for concern: Michigan isn’t very deep without L.J. Cason, and that could become an issue against Alabama’s pressure. The Crimson Tide will force the issue more than anyone it has faced, and May’s players will have to show it can handle that kind of disruption.
So far, nothing has rattled this group, but it hasn’t been tested quite in that way yet.
Iowa State
Reason to believe: Iowa State showed its ceiling when it went into Mackey Arena and blew out Purdue. It has backed that up since, consistently looking like the Big 12’s second-best team behind Arizona. Given how the Wildcats have played, that’s not a bad place to be.
Iowa State forces opponents into quick decisions and capitalizes when they falter. The defense applies constant pressure, and even against teams that can handle it, it still forces uncomfortable decisions. It’s a difficult unit to solve and one that always gives Iowa State a chance to win.
Reason for concern: This is a poor free-throw shooting team. It hasn’t hurt them much so far, but it could become a problem against an opponent capable of trading scores. In the loss to Arizona in the Big 12 title game, Iowa State went just 4-for-8 from the line in a two-point defeat.
Against either Michigan or Alabama, Iowa State will need to convert at the stripe. Neither opponent allows many free-throw opportunities, so taking advantage when they come will be critical.
Alabama
Reason to believe: Nate Oats is the only coach in this group who has taken his current program to a Final Four. He led Alabama there two years ago, and the Tide are now in their fifth Sweet 16 in six seasons.
Alabama’s 3-point shooting reached another level against Texas Tech, completely overwhelming the Red Raiders. The Tide can put up points against anyone.
Reason for concern: There’s an obvious concern: Alabama is facing the best shooting team in the country in the Sweet 16. The Tide rank 350th in limiting shot attempts, which is a major issue. It looks even more troubling when you consider the closest comparison, Illinois, which is also terrible in that metric. Michigan won that game by 14 in Champaign.
If Alabama doesn’t rebound better than it has, it may need to approach 120 points to win. Even this group isn’t built to do that regularly.
Tennessee
Reason to believe: Rick Barnes has been the model of consistency. Tennessee is in the Sweet 16 for the fourth straight year, and Barnes keeps doing it his way, with defense and rebounding. The Volunteers make life difficult for opponents and dominate the glass.
When Tennessee misses, it’s often close to a coin flip as to who secures the rebound. The Vols grab roughly 45% of their own misses, extending possessions and forcing opponents to play at their pace.
Reason for concern: The Volunteers don’t make great decisions with the basketball. Turnovers have been an issue, and they’re facing a team that thrives on creating them.
If the Vols get past Iowa State, Michigan is one of the few squads that can match them on the glass. Tennessee has the tools to win this regional, but the matchups may be just a bit too demanding.
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