The South Regional has come closest to delivering true chaos this March, even with three of its four teams still fitting the chalk profile.
The biggest upset came here, with Florida falling to ninth-seeded Iowa. That result ensured no region sent all four top seeds to the Sweet 16 and added a layer of unpredictability as regional play begins.
As the teams arrive in Houston, the South takes on a clear Big Ten presence. At least one conference team will reach the regional final, with Iowa and Nebraska set to meet. Illinois could push it to an all-Big Ten matchup, but only if the Illini can get past hometown favorite Houston.
Here’s a closer look at the four teams.
Houston
Reason to believe: Houston’s defense can squeeze the life out of anyone. Texas A&M had built its identity around “Bucky Ball,” forcing teams to play faster and operate outside their comfort zone. Houston handled it with ease, dismantling the Aggies by 31. The Cougars excel at taking away an opponent’s strengths and forcing adjustments, all while draining the shot clock.
If that weren’t enough, Houston can also score. The Cougars prefer a controlled pace, but they can speed things up when needed. They aren’t an elite shooting team, but they compensate by consistently getting a shot off at the end of possessions.
That’s a hallmark of Kelvin Sampson’s teams. Over the past seven years, Houston has ranked no worse than fourth nationally in field goal attempt rate, a reflection of their ability to maximize every possession.
Reason for concern: Houston draws the nation’s top three-point defense in Illinois, which limits where those looks can come from. Finding clean scoring opportunities will be a challenge and one of the defining factors in this matchup.
If the Cougars advance, the task doesn’t get any easier. A potential regional final against Iowa or Nebraska would put pressure on the glass. Rebounding is a strength for Houston, but all three teams in this bracket hold their own in that area, leaving little margin for second-chance opportunities.
Illinois
Reason to believe: This might be Brad Underwood’s best team in Champaign. Illinois does a little of everything well, but its identity is built on defense. The Illini expect to win the rebounding battle and are comfortable letting opponents burn clock trying to find answers.
Offensively, Illinois works the ball inside effectively and generates extra possessions on the offensive glass. It’s a well-rounded group with few clear weaknesses. Just as important, it’s battle-tested, five of its eight losses came against teams still playing, with the other three decided in overtime.
Reason for concern: Can a team that consistently allows a shot win against one that prioritizes getting a quality look every possession? Illinois ranked 365th in shot prevention, last in the country. The Illini don’t force many turnovers, so if they fail to control the glass or opponents convert their looks, the margin for error shrinks quickly.
When Illinois has lost, it’s often because opponents have found enough space to score alongside them. That dynamic helps explain the four overtime losses, teams have been able to match them possession for possession.
A potential third meeting with Nebraska would hinge on whether Illinois can handle the Huskers’ pressure and limit turnovers. A matchup with Iowa would likely turn into a slower game, one that plays more to Illinois’ strength of working the ball inside.
Nebraska
Reason to believe: Nebraska has met every challenge and is playing with confidence. This is already the best season in program history, and it could go even further. The Huskers feature a strong inside-out combination with Rienk Mast and Pryce Sandfort, allowing them to stretch defenses effectively.
They also defend at a high level without fouling. Nebraska rarely sends opponents to the line, protects the three-point arc, and holds its own on the glass. It’s a well-rounded group that has earned its spot in Houston.
Reason for concern: When Nebraska’s shooting goes cold, things can unravel quickly. They shot just 39% in a 20-point loss to UCLA, and Iowa held them to 21% from beyond the arc in Iowa City. Nebraska flipped the script in the rematch, winning while shooting 37% from three.
The Huskers rely heavily on shooting and defense. Much of the offense runs through Rienk Mast, and both Iowa and Illinois are well aware of that. For Nebraska to advance, he’ll need space to operate, whether as a scorer or facilitator.
Iowa
Reason to believe: Ben McCollum knows how to win. Iowa has undergone a rapid stylistic shift, moving from Fran McCaffery’s up-tempo approach to a more deliberate pace under McCollum. It took some time to settle in, but the Hawkeyes have developed into a solid defensive team.
Iowa is the clear underdog in this region, but that was also the case against Florida. The Hawkeyes are playing with nothing to lose.
Reason for concern: Iowa doesn’t shoot the three consistently enough, and its defense can be exploited. When things are clicking, the Hawkeyes can be a difficult matchup, but a 12-loss season tells the full story, including an ugly defeat at Penn State.
The talent level isn’t quite where McCollum wants it yet, and Iowa will be hard-pressed to contain the perimeter threats across this region. Simply getting this far has them playing with house money.
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