The top four in the NBA Rookie of the Year race feel like a lock. Cooper Flagg, Kon Knueppel, Derik Queen, and VJ Edgecombe have been the four best rookies this season; it is just a matter of how you want to order them.
Things get more interesting when you get to the fifth spot. Cedric Coward has dealt with injuries, and his production has dipped from where it was earlier in the season. Jeremiah Fears has been inconsistent, Ace Bailey’s Jazz have been fading late in games, and Dylan Harper’s role is limited on a contending Spurs team.
Then there is Egor Dëmin and Maxime Reynaud. Both are putting up numbers on bad teams, but how does that stack up against Harper’s contributions in San Antonio?
Here’s how the Rookie of the Year race currently stacks up.
1. Cooper Flagg
It is remarkable how much Flagg has improved as a rookie. His decision-making and finishing are markedly better than they were at the start of the season.
Over his last nine games, he is averaging more than 27 points with eight rebounds and four assists, along with 1.6 stocks per game.
The three-point shot still comes and goes, but what stands out is his ability to adjust based on what he has on a given night. Even when his shot is not falling, he is not becoming an inefficient offensive player.
Flagg missed the Rising Stars game and was later seen in a walking boot after being diagnosed with a left foot sprain. This is his award if he plays most of the remaining games, but a prolonged absence would leave the door open for Knueppel or Edgecombe.
2. Kon Knueppel
The Hornets’ surge carried right up to the All-Star break. Kon Knueppel has been lethal from the field, posting a 62.9% effective field goal percentage during Charlotte’s 10–1 run.
The three-point volume is not quite as high as it was earlier in the season. Part of that is Charlotte’s balanced offense, and part of it is opponents running him off the line. Knueppel has taken advantage by showing more of his all-around game, attacking closeouts and making smart plays off the bounce.
If that continues for the rest of the season, and if Dallas opts to sit Flagg to improve its draft position, there is a path for Knueppel to win Rookie of the Year. There is also enough momentum around the Hornets right now to sway some voters.
3. VJ Edgecombe
Paul George’s suspension has led to a slight uptick in VJ Edgecombe’s usage. He hit a bit of a shooting slump before the break, making just 26.4% of his threes over his last 14 games, but he remains unafraid to take big shots late in close games.
He has played with maturity beyond his years. As a third or fourth option alongside Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid, Edgecombe has not forced his offense, but he has remained assertive when needed.
Barring a sustained scoring surge, it is unlikely Edgecombe will match the offensive numbers of Flagg and Knueppel in this race. His impact on winning cannot be overstated, though, and his defense has been extremely valuable for Philadelphia.
4. Derik Queen
The triple-doubles grab the headlines, but Derik Queen appeared to hit the rookie wall before the All-Star break. Over his last 11 games, he averaged 10.5 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 3.5 assists.
Just eight field goal attempts per game reflect his role in New Orleans’ offense, but they also point to a lack of aggression. Like many passing bigs, he is still working to find the balance between playmaker and finisher.
The Pelicans have been worse with Queen on the floor than off it, particularly on the defensive end. There is still significant development needed there, something that would be under a brighter spotlight if New Orleans were in the playoff race.
5. Dylan Harper
The eight players drafted immediately before and after Harper are seeing more minutes, something that is, to an extent, out of his control. When he is on the floor, Harper is doing everything he can to impact winning.
San Antonio’s defense is 5.7 points per 100 possessions better with Harper on the court, and the team’s rebounding rate is 4.8 percentage points higher.
He gets to the rim relentlessly, ranking in the 99th percentile among combo guards, and he is making 90% of his long twos, which is an encouraging sign for the long-term development of his jump shot. His downhill aggression is helping create space in the Spurs’ halfcourt offense, even as opponents continue to sag off and dare him to shoot from three.
If this was your kind of read, you’ll like what’s next. Get The Sandman Ticket, our free, weekly newsletter with picks, insights, and a little bit of everything we love about sports.
